NBA DFS Playbook - March 5

237 game total and just a four point spread. Murray continues to lead this Spurs team and the matchup against one of the leagues worst defensive units will make him a nice lower owned play with many likely looking at Ja Morant at a cheaper price on DK or Stephen Curry as well.

Morant continues to put forth an MVP caliber effort every night he steps on the floor and while the Grizzlies lost to Boston the other night it was not the fault of Morant who finished with 38 points. The Magic were lit up by Malcolm Brogdon the other day and Morant is likely to do the same.

Woof…that's about all you can say about Ball's most recent performance where foul trouble and a blowout saw him finish with just 11 fantasy points over eight minutes against Cleveland. The price point her is nice because Ball does have 60 FP upside but it's been a bit since we have gotten that kind of effort out of him.

Portland will be without Josh Hart, Justice Winslow and Jusuf Nurkic here tonight. There is a good chance we see yet another blowout but Simons should be taking most of the shots. I'm not looking to pay $8,000 for him but can wrap my head around his FanDuel price.

No James Harden tonight for the 76ers as he rests on the back-to-back against Miami. Maxey has been phenomenal since the trade and last night he scored 33 points against Cleveland. With Kyle Lowry out of the lineup again, the matchup here should be a favorable one for Maxey, especially with most of the defensive focus on Joel Embiid.

Beverley is currently questionable and should he sit out we can pivot to Jaylen Nowell but with Anthony Edwards already out of the lineup there is some additional usage to go around. Beverley has given fantasy players a pretty consistent floor of 20 fantasy points this season.

He scored 30 actual points off the bench the other night as he continues to play some of the best basketball of his career following the trade of Derrick White. This matchup here should not be one that stops the scoring train and the DraftKings price tag will likely make him one of the higher rostered players on the slate.

Shake is already playing 20 minutes off the bench but with no James Harden I expect those minutes to increase and maybe he even finds himself in the starting lineup. Either way, on a short slate he will be a popular value option.

Rozier is averaging 47 fantasy points over the last four games and is coming off a 55 fantasy point effort in the Hornets blowout win over the Cavs the other night. With Ball struggling with consistency, it has been Rozier who has really shined through out late.

Blowout is my only real concern here as Russell has played just 29 and 25 minutes over the last two games with Minnesota dominating their opponents. We are looking at a 13-point spread tonight so another short performance could be in the cards. That being said, even in limited minutes, we are seeing him finish with 36 and 39 fantasy points.

Lowry is out and the likes of Jimmy Butler, Max Strus and Caleb Martin are all questionable to play. Herro is averaging 41 FP over the last five games and finished with 46 fantasy points the other night. I think Herro is a play we should look to lock in our lineups tonight.

We are really at peak pricing right here for Klay as there has only really been one game where he popped off. Fortunately, that one game was against these Los Angeles Lakers where he finished with 33 points on 12-of-22 shooting. Take a shot on Klay tonight and see if he has the Lakers number once again.

I've been touting Vassell for a few slates now as he continues to be a steady producer for the Spurs following his insertion into the starting lineup. Look for somewhere in the range of 25-to-30 fantasy points for your cash game lineups.

Jordan Clarkson is the comp for Jordan Poole right now as he comes off the bench and provides instant offense. Some days he can get hot and break a slate when nobody is paying attention. He will have lower ownership with Klay in the lineup and he is sitting under $5,000. If this game gets out of hand we could see Poole get extended blowout run.

We already know Anthony Edwards is out and now Patrick Beverley is questionable as well. Beasley played 24 minutes in the T'Wolves blowout win over the Thunder and still finished with 28 fantasy points.

LBJ gets up for these games against the Warriors as I feel like he is still fighting the rivalry he had against the Warriors during his Cleveland years. In two games against the Warriors this season he is averaging 60 fantasy points.

No Wendell Carter Jr. here again but the Magic are HUGE underdogs to the Grizzlies as we are looking at a 16-point spread. Wagner put forth a strong effort last night against the Raptors as he finished with 28 fantasy points and the game before that he popped for 43 fantasy points. For the most part this season the Magic starters have been blowout proof so we could just see Wagner on the floor for 30 minutes tonight regardless of score.

Wiggins is showing no issues playing with Klay Thompson in the lineup yet his price tag almost never moves. He has gone for 30+ FP in two straight games and had 31 FP against the Lakers in their last meeting.

Always a GPP wild card. Oubre can go for 20 fantasy points or he can go for 60 fantasy points and neither would shock you. I love the matchup here given the Spurs lack of defense at times and we are looking at a high-scoring affair. 

There just isn't really anybody else for the Blazers right now with Josh Hart being ruled out along with Winslow and Nurkic. Elleby is far from exciting but he should see plenty of minutes here against Minnesota who is not a great defensive team.

Coming off the bench and playing 20-to-25 minutes a night while giving you a fantasy point per minute. The matchup is solid here for Prince as well, though it doesn't seem like he would get extended minutes in a blowout. 

Stacking up this Spurs/Hornets game. Bridges is another Hornets player that is a bit of a wild card. He can pop for 40+ fantasy points one night and then disappear the next. We got his ceiling against the Pistons when he finished with 57 fantasy points and the Spurs, again, are not a great defensive team anymore. He finished with 43 FP in their first meeting this season.

Do I love Harris? No, not really, however the lack of James Harden today will at least open up some shots while the Heat defense is focusing on Joel Embiid. I will say however that if P.J. Tucker is active I am off this play completely.

We have been touting Keldon Johnson on the NBA DFS podcast for most of this season when he has been below $6,000. Today he is $6,100 on DK and coming off maybe he worst game of the year as he finished with just two points in 16 minutes against the Kings. I'm willing to forgive and go back to the well against a Hornets team that he scored 21 points against earlier this year.

The point spread is a big concern here but I always love some JJJ exposure in GPP contests. He can score, rebound and give you those coveted defensive stats as well. The matchup here also isn't an awful one with Wendell Carter Jr. out of the lineup. If you want to play game theory then look into Brandon Clarke for the blowout run.

With Anthony Davis out we've seen Anthony play at least 25 minutes in each game since returning to the lineup. He struggled against the Clippers last time out but went for 33, 23 and 34 FP in the three games prior. 

Started for WCJ yesterday and finished with 10 points, 11 rebounds, two assists and one steal. We were already recommending Chuma when he was coming off the bench so I have no issues playing him now that he is in the starting lineup.

The last time Embiid faced the Heat he finished with 32 points and 12 rebounds in 36 minutes. With no James Harden today all of the offense is going to run back through Embiid here today and while we like Bam Adebayo, this is a size mismatch for him and I look for JoJo to take advantage of it.

Best matchup for center on the board goes to Poeltl who has been a strong offensive player of late while adding in some solid rebounding numbers to boot. He should likely be in your lineup today on sites where he can roster one center in your utility spot.

Good for cash games. Adams has been a rebounding machine and the Magic are not a great rebounding team. We saw Mo Bamba get in early foul trouble yesterday and while Adams is not known for his offense he also isn't a zero in the paint either.

Speaking of Mo Bamba, he gets a nice usage bump when Wendell Carter Jr. is out of the lineup but unfortunately, the foul trouble limited him from seeing the floor for more than 25 minutes last night. Even then he still finished with nearly 24 FP which is close to 5x return on his price.

Only played 18 minutes the other night but given all the injuries he should continue to start and see a decent amount of run for this Blazer team. Even in the limited minutes he still finished with 24 fantasy points and has gone for 24 and 29 fantasy points since starting for the Blazers.