NBA DFS Playbook: March 3

Doncic has spoiled us this season, so we are caught by surprise that he has struggled from a shooting perspective after returning from the All-Star break. In three games, Doncic is shooting just 41% from the field, but the volume will continue to be there, and this is certainly the match-up for it as well. The good news is that with six assists and 8.7 rebounds per game, Doncic still has a 51 DK point floor, but also a cost to match. I do feel more comfortable using Doncic on FD tonight than the other sites based on pricing. 

It is very possible that Curry goes off tonight, as we know he is going to take enough shots for that to be possible. On Tuesday, that meant 16 three-pointers (making just five) while converting 10 of his 24 shots overall as Curry continues to struggle from a shooting perspective this season. If we knew that we would get the double-digit assists we saw from him in two of his last three games, our decision would be easier, but instead it’s strictly a GPP upside play. This is especially true on DK as their pricing is more aggressive. 

There aren’t many slates in which Murray will be the third highest priced point guard, and there is a lot to like with his match-up against Sacramento who also played last night. That isn’t to say Murray is cheap, but he is a threat for a triple-double on a nightly basis these days while eclipsing 30-points. 

After finishing the first half of the season with a 44-point performance, Morant came back to score 46 and then 52 in his last two games. Morant continues to play at a high level this season, and while we don’t want to go chasing a third straight game, I’m not sure it would surprise many observers. 

If we like Murray, it would only make sense to target the other side of that matchup in Fox who has picked up his play as of late. We’ve never really had to worry about scoring from Fox, but he has stepped things up a notch and the 10 assists he handed out in two straight games prior to lost night could push him to the next level. 

The match-up is a good one against the Lakers tonight, but Jackson isn’t exactly a bargain either. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Jackson with about 20 field goal attempts tonight, and if we sprinkle in six assists with a few rebounds, it’s a solid option if you need to save a little cash tonight. 

If there is any matchup that lines up well for Herro from a scoring perspective, it would be tonight against Brooklyn. Herro has broken the 20-point mark in all four games after the All-Star break, and tonight should be a fifth as he comes off 30-point effort last night as he also got a slight boost with Kyle Lowry sidelined. Both Lowry and Butler are out tonight, so it should be a busy night for Herro. 

Coming off the bench has agreed with Dinwiddie since the All-Star break as he is averaging 19.3 points and 5.3 assists per game in 27 minutes. At the price point, Dinwiddie makes a fine mid-range option if we get similar production. 

I would expect Monk to remain in the starting lineup tonight as he finished Tuesday’s game with 17 points, five rebounds, and four assists. It was another strong effort for Monk as he capitalized on getting the start, and there is also upside here if he makes more than five of his 14 field goal attempts. 

With Kyle Lowry out last night, it was hard to miss Vincent as he capitalized in his 31-minutes of action. For the second straight game, Vincent hit the 20-point mark (21 on Wednesday) as he also handed out six assists to go along with three rebounds. With Lowry not playing again tonight, Vincent should have no problem repeating that line against the Nets. 

The veteran is still working his way back from a stamina perspective, and as he can handle it, the Nets will increase his playing time. At a minimum, we should see around 15-18 minutes from him tonight. Dragic hasn’t missed a beat as he is coming off a 10-point, two rebound, two assist performance on Monday. 

Mitchell gives us a nice, cheap option tonight as he should get about 20 minutes of playing time off the bench for Sacramento. The rookie generally takes around 10 shots a night while handing out a few assists, and that is enough to get us close a 5x return. 

We have to accept the fact that LaVine isn’t going to be a 100% for the rest of the season, but his price has also decreased from his peak. With that being said, LaVine is still averaging 23.3 points per game in his last three so he’s not a complete liability. There’s still a little much risk to invest from a cash perspective, and while I wouldn’t force LaVine into a lineup, he’s still one of the better options. 

It’s a tough matchup for the rookie against Toronto tonight, but he has found consistency finishing each of his last five games with between 32 and 39 DK points. A large part of that is Cunningham picking things up on the boards, nine on Tuesday, while scoring at least 17 points per game. 

Facing Miami is never a great matchup, but with the Nets playing in Brooklyn tonight, they will be leaning on Curry offensively. Volume hasn’t been an issue for Curry, and we know he can knock down some shots in a hurry. 

Mann has the ability to go for 20-plus points on a nightly basis, but it simply doesn’t happen. The shooting volume is generally there, but we can’t say the same for his efficiency from the field. In his last four games though, Mann is averaging just over eight rebounds so that has provided somewhat of a floor for him if his shot isn’t falling. 

The path to a 5x return isn’t an especially a steep one at this price, and Vassell has a good matchup tonight against the Kings who also played last night. Despite coming off the bench, he plays between 25 and 30 minutes a game and is averaging 14.7 points, six rebounds, and 4.3 assists per game in his last three. 

Bullock has been busy from downtown as of late, but we also need him to make a few of those shots to get to where we need to be. The good news, is that the playing time will be there. 

James’ status doesn’t appear to be in doubt for tonight and he’s going to be busy once again. The Lakers are going small with James in the middle, but that won’t slow him down from an offensive perspective (26 points on Tuesday against Dallas) and he’ll likely finish with another double-digit rebound performance. 

With Jaylen Brown out tonight, it figures to be another big night for Tatum offensively. After seeing Brown exit after just three minutes on Tuesday, Tatum went off for 33 points to go along with eight rebounds and seven assists. Tatum will likely be the focal point again, and as he is averaging 25.9 points per game this season, nothing about this should come as much of a surprise. 

It’s possible that Fred VanVleet returns tonight, and Barnes doesn’t get to feast on the Nets tonight, but he’s still a large part of Toronto’s offense and it’s hard to argue with what we have seen from him in his last two games. While we don’t want to chase old news, Barnes averaged 24 points, 13 rebounds, and four assists as he showed what he is capable of. 

The Dallas forward has found some level of consistency as of late, but it’s really his last two games that we are after as he scored 14 and 16 points, respectively, while grabbing nine rebounds each night. This isn’t a situation in which we have to worry about playing time, and going back to before the All-Star break, he scored at least 14 points in four of his last five games. 

We have seen Williams score in double figures in five of his last six games and that includes an 18-point effort on Tuesday against Atlanta after Jaylen Brown only played three minutes with an injury. Williams should have a similar role tonight as he looks to repeat that performance in which he also grabbed seven rebounds. 

Porter is going to play around 20-minutes per night at this point, and get you about a 5x return, and that’s likely where it will end. Based on your GPP lineup construction, that might be a direction you need to take, but it’s not something I would do initially unless you had to. 

There is no doubting Durant’s skill set, and tonight he is the only star in town for Brooklyn. However, he hasn’t played in a month and a half and Miami isn’t exactly the easiest defensive team against whom to make your return. I would expect there to be a minute limit, but you never know with Durant as the Nets wouldn’t be bringing him back unless he was completely healthy. I would stick to limited GPP exposure only tonight if you must. 

The streak finally came to a close for DeRozan as he finished with just 18 points on Sunday. It was against Miami so that should come into play, but he also has another tough match-up tonight against Atlanta as he looks to begin a new streak. 

After scoring 26 points in each of his last two games, Grant has my attention. Other than picking up a few rebounds and assists each, the offensive end is where the bulk of his production has come from, but the increased scoring is a good sign as he works his way back to full strength and, at this point, his price doesn’t require him to do that much more. 

Foul trouble has been an issue for Jackson in each of his last games (five apiece) and his performance (seven points and 4.5 rebounds per game) has also suffered. His price on DK has also dropped $900 as a result of those two performances, and that puts him back on our radar tonight. 

A healthy Anthony could help to fill some the offensive gap we are currently seeing on the Lakers, and in his last three games, he certainly has been up to the task. The veteran is coming off a 20-point effort against the Mavericks on Tuesday and he should continue to see 30 minutes of playing time along with double-digit shot attempts. 

Kleber has been unable to reprise the firepower he showed prior to the All-Star break, but his price has fallen far enough that it’s a relatively simple path to a 5x return as he did on Tuesday with six points, seven rebounds, and two blocked shots. 

Covington isn’t going to go nuts offensively, but he is averaging just over seven rebounds per game in his last five and he does enough in 20-25 minutes of playing time to make him a solid option with a little bit of upside. 

Sacramento bumped Lyles into the starting lineup on Monday and he proved them right by scoring 24 points on 10 of 14 shooting while grabbing six rebounds. Last night, things looked vastly different as Lyles only made one of five shots from the field to go along with four rebounds in 20 minutes of action. The price isn’t prohibitive tonight if you want to throw a dart on the Monday version of Lyles reappearing. 

It wasn’t the best shooting day for Sabonis last night as the Kings got blown out in New Orleans as he shot six of 16 from the floor, but from a fantasy perspective he still finished close to where he needed to be for a 5x return. That was thanks to Sabonis’ 14 rebounds as he has been a monster on the boards as of late with double digit rebounds in five straight games. Tonight, represents a favorable matchup against the Spurs for Sabonis to get back on track offensively. 

Even with Andre Drummond in the fold, I have no qualms about targeting Brooklyn in the post with Adebayo. Last night, Adebayo had another consistently solid effort with 18 points and 12 rebounds against the Bucks and that is easily repeatable tonight. 

It doesn’t get much better than targeting the Kings front court, and the fact that they played last night only serves to help that case. Poeltl has begun to show a little more offensive upside as of late while also finishing with double-digit rebounds on a regular basis. 

For the most part, Williams has been a double-double machine as of late, and he doesn’t need many shots on the offensive end to do it. Boston should continue to give him at least 30 minutes of playing time a night, and there’s no reason not to expect his success to continue. 

Before being limited by a knee injury on Monday and not playing the next night, we got to see a little more from Drummond on Saturday as he scored 17 points and grabbed 12 rebounds in 29 minutes of action against Milwaukee. He should play tonight without restrictions, but there is a little bit of risk involved to see if he can handle a full workload or not. 

We have been seeing Zubac’s price rise as of late, but it also has been warranted. Granted both games came against Houston, but it’s hard to miss the 16 points and 13.5 rebounds he has averaged in his last two games; although we are going to dismiss the six blocked shots he had in one of those games as we don’t want to go chasing those points. Four of Zubac’s last five games have resulted in double-doubles, but we still can’t plan on him playing more than about 25 minutes on a consistent basis. 

Stewart is a budget friendly option to fill in at center who has scored between seven and 11 points in each of his last four games while finishing with between eight and 11 rebounds. While that doesn’t scream upside, it is nice production for the price to slot into your lineup.