NBA DFS Playbook: March 12

It could be a potential NBA Finals preview in primetime tonight as the Curry and the Warriors face the Bucks. Curry looked like himself on Thursday putting up 34 points on 11 of 21 shooting, and it was the third time he broke the 30-point mark in his last five games. Even better, is we get a nice discount on both sites with Curry from where he was a few games ago. 

There is no questioning the fact that Fox has full control of the playmaking duties in Sacramento’s backcourt. With three games of more than 50 fantasy points in his last five, we have all the proof we need. It hasn’t translated into success for the Kings, and they will find it tough tonight against Utah, but that also means Fox will be busy trying to keep the game close. In his last six games, Fox is averaging 30 points and 7.5 assists and there are few guards playing at a higher level. 

Nothing catches your attention quite like a 72.25 DK point effort. Garland scored 41 points to go along with 13 assists on Tuesday but then things cooled down last night as he shot just four of 17 from the field. Garland still finished with 24 points and 10 assists, so it’s not like it was a terrible performance and we know that the volume isn’t going anywhere. 

Running the show in Indiana has agreed with Haliburton, and that has translated to 18.4 points, eight assists, and 5.6 rebounds over his last five games, and the volume and usage levels will continue. Additionally, there is a lot to like about Haliburton’s matchup tonight against the Spurs. No Malcolm Brogdon is also a nice little boost to Haliburton’s value. 

Occasionally, Holiday gets a little more involved offensively than others, but he generally takes between 12 and 20 shots a game. I know that is a huge range, but it does speak to some upside if the efficiency is there (which it wasn’t on Wednesday). If we combine that with Holiday’s skills as a playmaker, we do get a solid floor.

It doesn’t really matter what’s going on around Herro, as we know that he’s going to get his shots on a nightly basis. Depending on the site, you can slot Herro in at either guard position, and even as someone who relies a great deal on his offense for DFS value, he has proved to be a reliable option. With Jimmy Butler out tonight, that only makes me want to use Herro more. 

I wish we were getting a real bargain here, but the price on Williams still isn’t terrible. The guard is simply the last man standing in Portland’s backcourt, or at least it seems that way, and even if it’s by default, the volume is there. When Williams shoots seven of 18 from the field like he did two games ago and scores 27 points while grabbing eight rebounds, all is good. The risk comes into play when he goes three of 13 from the field like he did on Wednesday, so I’d leave Williams for GPP lineups only. 

Poole has broken the 20-point mark in five straight games, and there is a lot to like about his recent offensive success. Tonight, figures to be a high scoring game against Milwaukee, and that should benefit Poole as he goes for six straight games breaking the 20-point mark. 

Morris has turned things up a notch on the offensive side of the ball over the past four games, averaging around 19 points per game. He has settled into a steady role running the point for Denver, and that makes him a solid mid-tier option tonight. 

Mitchell gets regular playing time off the bench, and in a potential blowout tonight against the Jazz, it’s possible he gets a little more run. Based on the price though, Mitchell doesn’t have an especially steep path to 5x and he has shown some solid flashes of ability on the offensive end. 

A blowout could work against us here as Mitchell only played 24 minutes on Wednesday as the Jazz made quick and easy work of Portland. With that being said, we get a nice $400 discount on DK tonight with Mitchell, and there is a lot to like with the matchup against the Kings and we know he is capable of. Last night, we got a typical effort from Mitchell in which he scored 24 points to go along with seven rebounds and six assists.

Middleton has been playing at a high level as of late averaging 26.5 points, 5.8 assists, and 4.5 rebounds per game which includes a high of 44 points. With 17 assists in his last two games, Middleton showed off his distribution skills and he appears to be in the midst of a consistent stretch at a nice price point.  

It was out of character to see Hield only attempt six shots on Tuesday, but he is playing a key role for the Pacers since his trade to Indiana. Hield is averaging eight assists per game over his last three, and with Brogdon out tonight, I would expect that continue along with Hield reverting back to double digit shot attempts. 

Despite an impressive effort in an impressive victory for Toronto over Phoenix last night, Trent’s price has only moved by $100 on DK, so if you are looking to chase, you are in luck. This doesn’t mean that Trent is going to go for 42 again, but the volume will be there and it was a good sign to see him make eight of 11 three-pointers. That is always a plus, but the hope is that Trent can continue the momentum after shooting seven for 40 from downtown in his four previous games. 

Duarte returned to action on Tuesday and played just 16 minutes, but in that time, he put up 14 shots. The fact that he only made four of them is certainly a problem, but the hope here is that the rust is shaken off and with Brogdon also out, the playing time increases. 

Of course, after I was all over Caldwell-Pope against the Lakers the other night, he repaid my faith by making just one of six shots in 30 minutes of action. The hope here is that he gets back on track tonight against a Portland team that is ripe to be targeted. 

Portland has become the land of opportunity and by default, someone has to play and score each night. Over the last three games, Johnson has scored 14 or 15 points while averaging just under four assists and around three rebounds. There’s nothing here to suggest that Johnson’s role and volume won’t continue. 

After scoring around 10 points a game over his last four, Kispert exploded for 21 points against the Lakers last night. He should get a good amount of run tonight against Portland, and the price does work to finish off a GPP lineup. 

Give me the 25 to 30 minutes of playing time and five or six shot attempts from three-point land at this price. In each of his last two games, we have seen a 6x return from Allen, and he the shots should be there once again tonight. 

No Jimmy Butler and Caleb Martin means Strus is clearly on our radars. Last night Strus took 13 shots, making six of them, 19 minutes on his way to a 17-point, three assist, two rebound performance and he should do something similar, at a minimum tonight. 

Richardson is someone to watch tonight if he remains in San Antonio’s starting lineup. Last night, that meant 11 points, four rebounds, and three assists in 34 minutes of action against Utah. When given the chance, Richardson has shown the ability to be a productive scorer. 

The rookie continues to hum along for Toronto, and we know that we are going to get around 15 shots per game out of Barnes. With the return of Fred VanVleet, the assists have gone down but Barnes is still a capable scorer and rebounder. 

Jarrett Allen being sidelined has helped Markkanen to take on a larger role in Cleveland’s offense, and he is averaging around 19 points per game over his last three to go along with seven rebounds. 

Green figures to have another night of around 30 minutes of playing time tonight, and the fact that Will Barton and Aaron Gordon are both banged up also helps his case. There’s no reason why we won’t get double digit scoring from Green along with around five rebounds, and that means at least a 5x return. 

Four of Antetokounmpo’s last five games have resulted in between 63 and 69 DK points with the “letdown” being a 52-point effort. There’s no reason not to expect him to show up tonight in the prime-time showdown with Golden State and Antetokounmpo’s track record speaks for itself. 

The days of getting a good price on DeRozan are long gone, but that doesn’t mean he should be off our radar either. DeRozan is getting all of the volume he can handle, especially with Zach LaVine not fully healthy, and that translated into a 36 point, eight rebound, four assist against Detroit a few nights ago. 

Even though Fred VanVleet returned, Siakam still took 24 shots last night against Phoenix on his way to a 25-point performance while grabbing eight rebounds. What was surprising though, was seeing Siakam finish with 10 assists, and while we aren’t arguing, I wouldn’t expect that on a nightly basis. 

With no Kristaps Porzingis tonight (rest) Kuzma does get back onto our radar as a GPP option to see what the volume looks like after a 23-point, seven rebound effort against the Lakers last night. 

Sign me up for Mobley without Jarrett Allen tonight. In the last three games, Mobley has taken 15, 15, and 12 shots respectively while averaging 20.3 points and 13.7 rebounds, and there’s no reason for that not to continue.

While the price might be slightly higher than I’d want it to be, Watford has emerged as a solid option for Portland averaging 14.5 points and 7.8 rebounds per game over his last four in 30 minutes. 

There are a lot of Pacers I like tonight, the over/under and the fact that San Antonio played last night certainly helps, and Smith is one of them. Getting regular playing time in Indiana has clearly benefited him as he continues to flash upside while scoring in double figures on a nightly basis while also being active on the boards. 

While we would still like to see a little more consistency out of Kuminga on a nightly basis, he is averaging 15.7 points in his last six games to go along with 3.8 rebounds while also flashing some upside. The price is a fair one and helps with roster construction as he has carved out a regular role, for the time being, in Golden State. 

This is a truly budget friendly option as Wade only managed five points and one rebound in 20 minutes of action last night. In the game prior to that, Wade scored 10 points and grabbed four rebounds in 37 minutes of playing time, so we have a look at the two ends of the spectrum for him. 

You come for the 60-fantasy point floor and stay for the 95 -point upside. It’s pretty crazy when you see Jokic come an assist short of a triple-double (23 points, 12 rebounds, and nine assists) and it’s considered a “down” game. 

The “other” elite center tonight is averaging “just” 26 points and 11.5 rebounds per game over his last six (51 DK points) and gives you a little salary relief compared to Jokic. We should note that Towns did struggle last night shooting just six of 14 from the field and it’s not an easy matchup against Miami either. 

Adebayo is shooting 58% from the field in his last six games and is coming off last night’s game in which he scored 30 points and grabbed 17 rebounds in just 33 minutes of action. Tonight, is another good matchup against a Minnesota team that also played last night, and if you fade the upper portion of the position, Adebayo is a nice fallback. 

Portis coming off two monster games (18 points/14 rebounds and 23/15, respectively) and I wouldn’t expect him to slow down tonight against Golden State. We still get Portis at a solid price point for the production as his price remains unchanged after his last game. 

We always want to target Sacramento with opposing centers, and while Whiteside comes off the bench, Utah played last night and the game is projected to be a blowout so there could be some sneaky value here. 

Gafford was efficient last night as he scored five points to go along with seven rebounds and three blocked shots in 20 minutes of action. In the game prior, Gafford made seven of 11 shots so he does have some offensive upside, but at this price anything we get really is a bonus. 

Jones gets the start tonight in what figures to be a high scoring game against Indiana, and the usage alone puts him squarely on our radar. 

Vassell steps into a larger role for San Antonio, and previously he has been up to the task when receiving increased volume. On the season, he is averaging 11.7 points per game, so we know that he can be a capable scorer.