NBA DFS Playbook: March 15

This is one of the few regular season games, for now, that Irving has left. In a blowout victory against Philadelphia last week, Irving only was needed for 30 minutes but it was still a solid effort with 22 points, five assists, and four rebounds. Irving should be set for another strong performance, and with the Nets a little beat up and potentially shorthanded, there should be plenty of offense available for him. 

Booker has scored 30 points in three of his last five games, but it’s more his playmaking skills that have caught or attention. We know that Booker can score at will, and that part of his game certainly is still present, but he’s also averaging 8.7 assists per game in his last three, and that helps to boost up his floor. 

If Malcolm Brogdon is out for another game, that does push us a little more towards Haliburton, but the usage will be there for him regardless. Haliburton is an assist shy of four straight double-doubles while also averaging 18.4 points per game over his last five and he continues to take on a larger role in Indiana’s offense. 

While I’m not used to seeing Payne’s price this lofty, there appears to be plenty of room in Phoenix’s backcourt for him and Booker. In just 24 minutes on Sunday, Booker shot just four of 10 from the field for nine points but he did finish with 11 assists for his third game out of his last four with double-digit assists. 

Jimmy Butler is back tonight, but in a favorable matchup against Detroit, there’s still enough there to like about Herro. We might not get another 30-point performance, but Herro is averaging 20.9 points per game this season so it’s not like he has an issue scoring off the bench. 

I like the matchup for Anthony against the Nets tonight as comes off a poor shooting performance (four of 12) against Philadelphia on Sunday. Thanks to being perfect from the free throw line (eight of eight), Anthony still finished with 19 points and we don’t have to worry about usage here. 

We have to keep an eye on CJ McCollum’s status tonight, but he is primed to return tonight. Alvarado still provides a budget friendly option after a 16-point, 10 assist, six steal performance against Houston on Sunday, but that was with McCollum out. If not, Alvarado will still get about 20 minutes of playing time tonight and he does offer some upside. 

Orlando hasn’t played Fultz more than 19 minutes since his return but he has been quite productive with his limited time. Through six games, Fultz is averaging 10 points and 5.5 assists per game and we should get a minimum 5x-6x return if not more tonight in what is a favorable situation against the Nets. No Jalen Suggs is also a plus here. 

Jones scored 12 points in 18 minutes on Sunday and his playing time should shoot up tonight with Ja Morant sidelined. I understand the chalk aspect of this, but the volume will be there and you can’t ignore the price either in a game that will feature plenty of offense against Indiana. 

McCollum is back after a short absence tonight and the Pelicans will need all of the offense he has to offer against Phoenix. That hasn’t been a problem for McCollum as he is coming off back-to-back games of 32 points each, and with an average of eight assists over his last four games, he has found his footing as a facilitator as well. 

I don’t love the matchup against Miami tonight, but Cunningham has been performing at a high level. Over the past nine games, the rookie is just one point shy of nine straight with at least 20 points. On Sunday against the Clippers, Cunningham was one rebound short of a triple-double and he is playing his best basketball of the season. 

On most nights, Hield has been playing 35 to 40 minutes per night for Indiana while taking close to 20 shots per game. Tonight, should be no different as not only is Hield averaging 18.2 points per game in his last five but he has also gotten involved as a facilitator averaging seven assists which, along with 5.2 rebounds, gives him a nice floor. 

This is projected to be the highest scoring game of the night, and Bane should also take advantage offensively of the fact that Ja Morant is likely sidelined for tonight’s game. Even if not, Bane would still be on our radar as he is averaging 21.4 points per game in his last five taking at least 15 shots a night. 

After a two-month absence, Brooks returned to action on Sunday and played a solid 26 minutes. Brooks didn’t seem to miss a beat as far as volume and role as he shot six of 14 from the field and finished with 15 points and four assists. The field goal percentage is right in line with where Brooks was this season before the injury, but at the price, a similar performance still gives us a 5x return. 

Durant is coming off a monster game against the Knicks as he scored 53 points on Sunday to go along with nine assists and six rebounds, but we should note that Irving was sidelined. While it’s still hard not to like Durant, we should make it clear that he likely won’t be taking 37 shots again tonight, and there is also the risk of a blowout against Orlando for the best player on the slate. With a lack of star power along with Durant’s vast upside, we are forced to eat the chalk tonight. 

I don’t want to ignore Butler, but at the same time, the 42 DK points he is averaging on the season (along with his recent performances) don’t give him any upside greater than a 5x return. It is a good matchup against Detroit, but it’s hard to see Butler having the type of game we need to get our DFS lineups really to go off. 

In his last three games, Bridges is averaging 19 points and 7.3 rebounds per game, and while Booker has returned, Cameron Johnson is out tonight so the opportunity is still there tonight for him to continue his recent success while also providing a solid floor. 

Marshall has benefited from the recent absences of both CJ McCollum and Brandon Ingram. The former is likely out tonight, but even if McCollum does return, Ingram is still out so even if Marshall does shift back to the bench, the value will be there. In his last two games, Marshall is averaging 15.5 points, eight rebounds, 4.5 assists and that is a solid expectation for tonight’s performance. 

I don’t like seeing Wagner take just six shots in 35 minutes on Sunday, but he is generally busier offensively and the minutes aren’t anything new. With Orlando expecting to be trailing tonight, Wagner should be busy offensively and he has been solid on the boards with just over six rebounds per game in his last three. 

On a short slate, Okeke and his 7.5 points and 5.8 rebounds per game over his last six are going to appear on our radar as he also has a solid matchup tonight against Brooklyn. The cost provides salary relief and his performance is generally consistent. 

While they have gotten better, I still like targeting Brooklyn’s front court. Carter brings some offensive upside scoring at least 20 points in three of his last four games while also coming through with double digit rebounds, and the Magic will need everything he has to offer tonight in order to stay competitive. 

Jackson continues to struggle at times with his shooting from the field, but when he has double-digit shot attempts, we can make it work. The upside is in the blocked shots, he blocked five a few games ago, but on nightly basis we do see them fluctuate. 

It will be interesting to see how Detroit handles playing time with the return of Isaiah Stewart, but after averaging 16.4 points and 8.6 rebounds per game in his last five, it will be hard for them to send him back to the bench. 

After scoring just six points in his previous game, Smith bounced back with a 13-point, 10 rebound effort on Sunday against Atlanta for his fourth game out of his last five with double digit points. It was also the third time in his last five games that Smith hit double figures in rebounds as he continues to find his footing with Indiana. 

The opportunity is there for Hayes to take advantage of a little extra playing time, and he did come through with 21 points and six rebounds in his last game on Sunday. On a smaller slate and with an affordable price, Hayes is worth a look again tonight. 

Tucker is generally a player you start out targeting, but he does fit nicely in most lineups. We get about 25 minutes a night out of Tucker, and on average he comes through with around 20 fantasy points which gives us a solid 5x return. 

Double digit rebounds are generally a given with Valanciunas, but do we really want to chase a third 30-plus point outing after he reached that mark in two of his last three games? The extra offense is there for the taking with Brandon Ingram out, and he has done so as of late. 

While he does flash some upside on occasion, Adebayo is generally a steady option around his season averages of 19 points and 10.4 rebounds per game. It is a solid matchup against Detroit, and while I often default to Adebayo, he is more of a cash game option for me at this price point. 

I like the additional offense we are seeing as of late from Ayton as he is starting to flash a little more upside while elevating his general level of play. With 19.5 points and 10.5 rebounds per game over his last six, it’s hard to find much fault in Ayton’s production these days. 

We got 28 minutes out of Drummond on Sunday, and he came through 18 points and 10 rebounds. It does seem that his stamina is starting to pick up a little more, and his performance is coming with it and Drummond is taking advantage of the extra playing time. 

The matchup is right for Bamba, but he has proven to be hit or miss these days. If the shot volume is there, and he is hitting and grabbing double digit rebounds then you look like a genius, but if not, you are stuck with the snowflake for the night. Leave Bamba for GPP lineups only if you must.