NBA DFS Playbook: March 24

At this point, if Garland doesn’t break the 20-point mark tonight, it would be an upset. He is locked in offensively but it also hasn’t caused Garland to skirt his duties as a point guard with double digit assists in four of his last five games. Garland is coming off of a 29-point, 17 assist performance against the Lakers on Monday and that gives him 24.8 points and 11.7 assists per game over his last six. 

Booker “only” shot seven of 15 from the field last night, but the guard more than made up for it by getting to the line to shoot 16 free-throws and making 13 of them. It’s been over a month since Booker scored less than 22 points in a game, and coupled with about five rebounds and assists per game, 50 fantasy points is a reasonable expectation. Chris Paul's return tonight is something to watch but Booker has been that good. 

Heading into last night, Haliburton has been struggling offensively with just 24 points combined in his last three games. The assists were there, 8.4 in his last five games, but Haliburton slowed down overall before bouncing back last night. While he scored just 13 points, Haliburton exploded with 15 assists while grabbing five rebounds. Haliburton isn’t exactly cheap, but he did remind us of his upside. We should also note though that it was a revenge game for Haliburton against Sacramento and Malcolm Brogdon was out once again. Brogdon is out again tonight, but Haliburton has popped up as questionable on the Injury Report, so this is something to continue monitoring. 

We have seen the best Holiday has to offer offensively recently, and that meant 27 points on Tuesday against Chicago. Holiday has seven assists in four of his last five games and he should continue to be a large part of Milwaukee’s offense. With Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton both out tonight, that should continue.  

Payne was back in the starting lineup last night and responded with 13 points and nine assists in what has become his customary performance. Even if you don’t much upside beyond the 5x value, Payne is still a solid option even if he is more weighted towards cash games depending on the site. The return of Chris Paul is something to watch here, although I would expect him to be on a minutes limit. Our issue with Payne though, is that he is priced as if Paul is still sidelined. 

With Ja Morant out, Melton continues to take advantage of the increased offensive volume available to him. He followed up a 16-point, seven rebound performance on Sunday by scoring 23 points in 27 minutes against the Nets last night. At this point, Melton’s price remains unaffected, and I would continue to roll with him. Tonight, both Morant and Dillon Brooks are out, that should mean a heavier workload for Melton. 

Despite only scoring three points in 30 minutes on Tuesday, Caruso is still a solid option after handing out six assists and grabbing five rebounds. His price did jump, but Caruso remains a viable option for the price.

Jones followed up a 13-point, seven assist performance by going for 16 and 10 against the Nets last night. What might be even better, is that we get Jones for $300 less tonight as he continues in a starting role for Memphis with Morant out once again. 

We aren’t going to get much offense from Neto on most nights, but he logs considerable minutes on a nightly basis. That led to 10 assists on Monday against Houston which gave us a 7x return. While we can’t count on that each night, it does make Neto a solid GPP option. 

LaVine continues to play through his knee injury, and it continues to be hard to argue with his price. On Tuesday, that meant 21 points and seven assists while shooting six of 16 from the field. The volume continues to be there for LaVine, and with a little more efficiency we are really looking at a lot of value here as it’s hard not to like these prices. The fact that Demar DeRozan is out tonight puts us on LaVine even more. 

When you score between 21 and 24 points in four of your last five games, it’s only natural for Bane’s cost to rise. We do have to keep an eye on Morant’s status for tonight, but I’m operating as if he will be sidelined once again. Throw in five rebounds and five assists per game, and you have a solid floor from Bane in addition to what he has been doing offensively. It should also be noted that Bane is averaging 18 points per game this season, so the recent success isn’t just because of Morant’s injury. 

In his last four games, Kispert has taken 37 shots which has led to 14 points per game in that stretch as he sees his role expand offensively. Kispert is also playing a little over 30 minutes a night, and there is relatively easy path to a 5x return. 

Stevens has seen an uptick in playing time over the past few games, and the swingman has proven to be up to the task. In 34 minutes of action against the Lakers on Monday, Stevens scored 16 points while grabbing six rebounds, and his price on DK actually decreased by $200. I wouldn’t expect Stevens to be this cheap for long, and I’m comfortable going back to him tonight as a value option. 

On a night-to-night basis, Markkanen’s offensive performance does fluctuate but he plays a ton for Cleveland and is averaging 17.4 points per game over his last five along with 7.2 rebounds. That gives us a solid floor with the occasional upside of a 30-point game. 

In a lot of cases, Bridges is more of a compiler but his offense has picked up in recent games. Bridges broke the 20-point mark in three of his last five games and is coming off a 16-point, six rebound performance last night as continues to get all the minutes he can handle. 

Jones didn’t get a chance to really get going on Monday as he was ejected after just 19 minutes of action. Prior to that, Jones was averaging 15.3 points and four rebounds per game in his last three as he takes advantage of the likely continued absence of Brandon Ingram. 

Brissett is coming off a 10-point, 10 rebound performance last night against Sacramento which puts him right in the midst of a solid stretch. Over his last four games, Brissett is averaging 13.8 points and 7.8 rebounds which helps to make him a reliable option. 

I really want to be in on Gordon, but it does come with a pretty big caveat. We need to know how many shots he is going to take on nightly basis as in his last five games, there are three with double-digit shot attempts and two in which he has just 11 combined. On an overall basis, Gordon is averaging 14 points and 4.8 rebounds per game in his last five, and at the price, he is worth a look tonight. 

You shouldn’t be surprised that I would come back to Connaughton tonight as Khris Middleton is out once again tonight. In 23 minutes of action on Tuesday, he scored 14 points and grabbed five rebounds, and even if we don’t get any thing more, it’s still better than a 6x return. 

Siakam has picked up a double-double in three of his last five games, and it’s hard not to like the forward when he is doing that. On an overall basis, Siakam is averaging 22 points, 8.3 rebounds, and 5.1 assists per game this season, we know that he is capable of well-rounded production but this is still more of a cash game option because he generally doesn’t provide greater than 5x upside. 

So, this is the version of Porzingis that Washington thought they were acquiring. Kyle Kuzma being sidelined has proven to be beneficial for Porzingis as he scored 22 points and grabbed 13 rebounds on Monday. That was Porzingis’ second double-double in three games and the Wizards should need plenty of offense from him to keep up with Milwaukee tonight. 

The rookie is capable of a double-double on a nightly basis while also demonstrating some offensive upside and continuing to benefit from Jarrett Allen’s injury. Even on nights when Mobley doesn’t go for 30 points, he still has enough of a role in the offense that there is a consistent floor so you likely won’t see a snowflake. 

A little more consistency would be nice from Hayes. Over his last four games, he has been busy averaging 13.3 points and 7.8 rebounds in 33 minutes but you do have to keep an eye for some fluctuation there; especially on the offensive end. 

It’s not the first time I’m saying this, but give the man regular playing time. In Boucher’s last two games he is averaging 36 minutes and he has made good use of his minutes by scoring 15.5 points grabbing 12 rebounds while recording a double-double in each game. Now if only we could count on a third straight game of similar playing time. 

Hachimura proved capable of filing in for Kuzma as he scored 16 points and grabbed eight rebounds in 30 minutes of action on Monday. It was the eighth straight game of double-digit scoring for the forward and it appears that he is truly settled in after a delayed start to the season. 

After I was on him on Tuesday (I know, really going out on a limb with a bold call) we back to Jokic tonight. He rewarded us with 30 points, 16 rebounds, and six assists and while I’d to be impressed, it’s just another standard performance out of Jokic this season as he continues to raise that bar. 

Brandon Ingram being sidelined has worked to Valanciunas’ benefit as he has been getting more involved offensively as of late. While playing just 28 minutes per game over his last four, Valanciunas is averaging 20.8 points and 13.5 rebounds as part of a streak with five straight double-doubles. If you don’t want to pay up for Jokic, Valanciunas does give you a nice alternative even if his ceiling is less than Jokic’s floor. 

We have been talking about Ayton’s increased production on offense as of late, but last night he took things a step further as he scored 35 points while shooting 15 of 24 from the field. Ayton also grabbed 14 rebounds for his fourth straight double-double. 

Adams continues to be a solid option at the center position, and you generally know what you are getting from him. In his last four games, that has been seven points, 11 rebounds and about three assists which gets us right around a 5x return if you are looking to save some money here. 

Everything was working last night for Bitadze as he scored 20 points on nine of 12 shooting while grabbing nine rebounds for the third time in five games. Minutes haven’t been an issue for Bitadze as of late, and while 20 points is at the higher end of his potential, he has established a solid baseline of production. 

Williams likely moves back into the starting lineup tonight, and with Memphis shorthanded he appears on our radar. In 22 minutes of playing time on Sunday, Williams scored 14 points and he has proven to be a double-digit scorer when given the chance. That should be the case tonight. 

Going back to Lopez makes sense tonight as he continues to be reasonably priced in his return. On Tuesday, that meant 10 points, six rebounds, and two assists. While that production isn’t going to jump off the page, it’s still a solid price. 

Washington is the first guard off the bench tonight for Indiana with Malcolm Brogdon sidelined, and there could be a path to even more minutes if Tyrese Haliburton is sidelined. There is clearly no issues on the offensive end for Washington as he has scored in double figures for nine straight games, and there is clear path towards making it ten tonight. 

While we aren't looking at a ton of upside here, Green is returning to the starting lineup tonight with Demar DeRozan sidelined. In his last five games, Green is averaging 5.4 points and 5.4 rebounds per game which is good for 5x on DK. With a few extra minutes of playing time, it should be an easy path to surpass that tonight. 

Paul is set to return to action after missing more than a month with a thumb injury, and while we are still waiting on news of a possible minute restriction, the veteran is worth a GPP look at a solid price. On the season, Paul is averaging 14.9 points and 10.7 assists per game, and that is enough for us.