NBA DFS Playbook: March 29

Besides one bad game against Minnesota on March 21st, Doncic has a streak going of at least 42 fantasy points in every game since January 25th. He might get that in the first half against an undermanned Lakers' squad tonight. Only the Rockets give up more points to point guards this season and Russell Westbrook is going to have to be Mr. Do-It-All on offense. 

When he scored 39 fantasy points in his homecoming against the Hornets, it wasn't a bad outcome, but DFS managers were hoping for more. That may come tonight in a game against Detroit, who are a bottom seven team against point guards and an equal to the Nets in pace this season. 

When we check the old on/off machine for stats with Anthony Davis and LeBron James off the court, Westbrook checks in with a 34.6% usage rate and 34.3% assist rate. We can count on around 70% of the Lakers' offense to flow through Russell Westbrook tonight, which makes his FanDuel and Yahoo salaries look very appealing. 

Holiday will be the overlooked high-salary point guard tonight, but he deserves some consideration. He has scored at least 38 fantasy points in four of his last five games plus 29 points in just 23 minutes in the other. This is without a doubt the best real-life game of the night, and I expect stars like Holiday to step up. 

Now starting and giving us a routine 30+ minutes per night, Caruso is in play considering the combination of the matchup and the salaries. He is at 22.2 points per game in his last five and gets a boost against a Washington squad ranked 25th in defensive rating on the year and 26th in their last 12 games. 

The salary has stabilized on DK and FD for the most part, but dropped $3 on Yahoo for no apparent reason. Even with Kyrie Irving playing every game now, Dragic is putting up big minutes. In the last game against the Hornets, Dragic saw the floor for 30 minutes and score 32 fantasy points. 

I was shocked when I saw the salary for Harden over on Yahoo. He has been this cheap just once since November, so is worth a roster spot over there. But against Milwaukee this year, Harden average over nine points per game less than his nightly fantasy output. The last week or so has been a roller coaster of fantasy ups and downs with Harden's scoring, so there may be safer bets as we get cheaper salaries. 

Cunningham may be one of those options, particularly on FD and Yahoo tonight. The Nets are a bottom-10 team against shooting guards this year and Cunningham seems to be on a mission to rip the Rookie of the Year award away from Evan Mobley. In his last five games, he averages 41 fantasy points per night and he has put up 39 in two games against Brooklyn this year. 

Much of the appeal of Mitchell hinges on the Questionable tags for Rudy Gobert, Bojan Bogdanovic, and Danuel House. Without them in the lineup over the last five games, Mitchell averages 43 fantasy points per night and has been above 50 in four of his last seven games. This game has the lowest total of the night (217.5), but if the Jazz are shorthanded and the Clippers don't get Paul George back, this could be a smash spot.

Speaking of Paul George, shooting guard has a couple huge question marks as we approach lock tonight. Both LaVine and George are Questionable tonight and would massive ramifications whether they do or do not play. If LaVine is in, he immediately becomes a strong candidate for rosters with his 38.7 fantasy points per game in his last six and his 40 fantasy points per game when he plays the Wizards this season. 

It's time to fly close to the sun again with all of these cheap Lakers tonight with LeBron and Davis out. Monk gets a usage increase of 3.8% and a fantasy points per game bump by 2.7 points when those guys are out. Overall, his usage is 23.5% with those two off the floor. 

Monk figures to be somewhat chalk in this salary range tonight, so KCP is a nice pivot as someone who is playing 32 minutes every night and has scored 30+ fantasy points in three of his last five games in this depleted Washington lineup. 

You don't worry about having to pay up for a small forward tonight if you don't want to. Middleton is the most expensive true small forward and he struggled in his one game against the 76ers earlier this season. His fantasy points per game over the last few games (30.5) are down from his season average (37.7) as he battles a couple nagging injuries. Middleton looks great in a game stack, but there are less expensive options on all sites that might fit better.

Saddiq Bey is one of those options, especially on FanDuel. I have no idea what they are thinking with this salary, as they last time he was $5,500 or below was December 23rd. It's also a $1,100 dip since his last game which is almost unheard of. In their last 30 games, Brooklyn allows the second-most points to opposing small forwards. 

The salaries for Avdija have stabilized, but we now know that he is going to play 30 minutes and give us good fantasy production off the bench. He has at least 29 fantasy points in five of his last seven games, so he should be able to get to 5x easily. 

On the same team, Kispert is cheaper and is also routinely putting up 20+ fantasy points. If you don't go Stanley Johnson on the chalky Lakers tonight, Kispert is a nice pivot. 

The Lakers have two near min-salary small forwards on tonight's slate and I think I prefer Johnson. Before Sunday's disaster, he had a stretch of four straight games where he played at least 23 minutes and scored at least 20 fantasy points. And those games were with LeBron James. His shots and opportunities should go way up tonight, as should his minutes. Johnson is power forward eligible only on Yahoo. 

THT has played sparingly lately due to a sprained ankle. It may limit him tonight, but the Lakers will likely need his playing time for as long as he can be out there. Look for THT to back up Johnson in this one and probably get around 20 minutes and 20 fantasy points against Dallas. 

Giannis is Probable on tonight's slate, but I don't think there is anything to worry about considering the massive seeding implications for this game against Philadelphia. All Giannis has done this season is average 65.4 fantasy points per game in two versus the 76ers. Don't overthink it tonight. He is worthy of the highest salary on all sites. 

If history is any indication of his performance tonight, this could get ugly for the Pistons very quickly. IN three games against Detroit this year, Durant averages 55 fantasy points in just 35 minutes per game. This game is also important for Brooklyn's seeding, so look for Durant to play as much as he can. 

The Bulls, once at the top of the East, have fallen out of the conversation for the top spot but still have work to do to avoid the play-in tournament. DeRozan did his part last night, scoring 50.7 fantasy points in 41 minutes. Considering the heavy burden in the game last night, be cautious of some extra minutes on the bench tonight, especially in a game the Bulls are projected to win by four. 

Bagley seeing 35 minutes per game and scoring 37.25 fantasy points per night will certainly work for these salaries, especially on DK and Yahoo. He has almost identical stat lines from the last two and it looks like he is going to play big minutes with Jerami Grant out. 

Anthony's usage when LeBron and Davis are off the floor is a strong 23.5% which is three points higher than usual. I predict we get something much closer to the box score from Thursday (28.4 fantasy points in 30 minutes) than the one from Sunday (nine fantasy points in 15 minutes). 

Gabriel is center-only on Yahoo, but is viable in the forward spots on FD and DK due to the fact that will likely start tonight. In his last three games with more than 20 minutes played, he has gone over 22 fantasy points each time. 

The next piece of evidence in the debate that the stars play the best in the big games is right here with Embiid. Last time the 76ers played the Bucks, it was a road game for Embiid with no James Harden yet. He preceded to score 69 fantasy points in the victory, perhaps cementing his MVP award. He may still have some work to do in that department, so this I'm expecting another massive usage game for The Process. 

Washington versus centers lately has been a lot like David versus Goliath. They allow 60 fantasy points per game over their last 15 (fifth-worst) including as astounding 29 points and 14.5 rebounds. Vucevic has put up 47 points per game against them in his two contest this year. 

That's now four out of the last five games with 40+ fantasy points for Porzingis. He is doing it all over the stat sheet as well: points, rebounds, blocks, steals. But best of all, he is playing over 30 minutes every night. 

This time, it's DK who has a salary that seems too low for Drummond, who just demolished Charlotte for 52 fantasy points in 31 minutes. He is also is a serious threat to get the double-double bonus in this one for DK. This game also has revenge game written all over it, and while we might not get 50 again, Drummond is over 36 per game in his last five. 

Speaking of strong performances in their last games, Stewart went up against the Knicks, who have the toughest defense against centers this month, and scored 33.5 fantasy points including a double-double. A nice pivot off of Drummond or part of a game stack. 

If you really have to, Dwight Howard is not the worst option in the world tonight. In his last two games, he is playing 30.5 minutes per night and averaging 30 fantasy points per game. He got a $300 salary drop heading into this games on DK, and he looks worth the risk there and on Yahoo. 

Adding a Paul George note as an update since he is now expected to play. I haven't seen anything definitive on minutes, but I would imagine there would be some kind of restriction since it's his first game in more than three months. Utah is a tough first matchup, but LA needs George to gets some reps before the playoffs. At these salaries, I am likely avoiding until we know more about his limitations.