NFL DFS Playbook: Week 3

Mahomes and the Chiefs have had back-to-back slugfests to open the season and things aren't getting any easier with this match-up with the Chargers. The current 55 over/under indicates we're in for another barn-burner and that means Mahomes is going to be scrambling around and slinging the rock throughout all four quarters. The Chargers are without Chris Harris again which should help open things up in the secondary while Justin Jones is out and Joey Bosa is questionable which means the pass-rush isn't likely to be s intense as it could be. If they let him set up in the pocket, it could be doomsday for the Bolts, but even on the run, Mahomes knows how to carve up a secondary. His price tag, in comparison to some of these other high-end QBs we'll be discussing, could keep ownership low for GPP tournaments, especially if you're looking to stack Chiefs. Go listen to the NFL DFS Podcast with me and James Grande and you'll see how to work around that.

While he's not doing much running, Wilson continues to be an elite QB worthy of starting each and every week. He's averaging just under 300 passing yards per game and has six touchdowns to no interceptions over the first two weeks of the season and now gets Minnesota, a team whose pass defense is in shambles. Mike Zimmer's secondary is usually pretty strong, but they've been awful to date, allowing almost 300 passing yards per game. On top of that, the Vikings have allowed a total of 61 points on the season and opposing QBs have a 123.6 passer rating against them. He hasn't let us down yet and I don't think he will this week either.

There's not a whole lot to the analysis with this match-up, nor does there really need to be. The Lions defense is bad. Very bad. They've been bested by Aaron Rodgers and Jimmy Garoppolo/Trey Lance so far and none of those quarterbacks come close to Jackson's rushing upside. His legs routinely offer him a high floor so we like him for cash games, but, as always, there's definite GPP upside, especially with the current COVID outbreak among the Ravens defense. Maybe this one doesn't turn into the blowout everyone is expecting and Jackson, along with the starters, aren't able to take their foot off the gas. There is also the hip issue people have been talking about. The team has been focused on him missing late practices due to a stomach bug, but if people are concerned about the hip, maybe we can get him at some low ownership in GPP tournaments. 

He's thrown for an average of 337.5 yards through the first two games and would actually have more than two touchdowns had the refs not be so liberal with the yellow laundry on the field this past week. But this is fixing to be a classic AFC West shootout and the over/under of 55.5 tells you all you need to know. Herbert is going to have a number of different outlets in this match-up and the Chiefs have already allowed 65 points through their first two games. If you thought Week 2 against the Ravens was a heavyweight prize fight, just wait until you see what happens when Herbert is trading blows with Mahomes all day.

It's no secret that the Seattle defense is far from what it once was, yet most people continue to believe they are just as effective as they ever were, dating back to the Legion of Boom. That's just not the case and while they haven't yielded a ton of yardage through the air (271.5 ypg), opposing quarterbacks have been fairly efficient, posting a 98.1 passer rating over the first two weeks. Cousins knows his defense can be just as porous, so while we expect to see a lot of Dalvin Cook, that is going to open things up more in the passing game later on. With such amazing weaponry and a 55 over/under, we can expect Cousins to be slinging the rock.

Football is all about the match-ups, right? So while you may wince at the thought of using Jones in any DFS lineup, this match-up against the Falcons is exactly what he and the Giants need right now. The Falcons pass defense ranks 27th, they are allowing the third-highest QB rating (131.2) and have given up an average of 260 passing yards per game. Jones has bonded well with Sterling Shepard, Kenny Golladay is coming along nicely, he may get Evan Engram back this week and Saquon Barkley is one game closer to full health. And don't forget the rushing upside. If we saw a little more consistency from him (and that means more than just two games this season), his legs could push him into cash game play, but for now, we'll still with the GPP tournaments.

Well how do we not take this shiny, new toy out for a spin this week? It's a GPP-only play, but Fields is expected to be the total package which means cash games too…eventually. Let's not forget first-start jitters and a Cleveland front-seven that could be blitzing heavily in an attempt to rattle the rookie. This Browns secondary, however, has not lived up to its billing and that's where we could hit with a low-cost Fields in a tournament. The Browns are allowing an average of 272 passing yards per game and opposing QBs have a 115.2 passer rating against them through the first two weeks. With Allen Robinson, Darnell Mooney (he should be healthy enough to play) and David Montgomery at his disposal, if Fields does everything the Bears hope he can do, this should be a nice play.

We're going to hold our breath a little here and pray for full health. Cook was slow to get up twice this past week against Arizona and maybe that scares people. He's currently listed as questionable which is an obvious concern, but we expect to see him play. But even without that concern, after watching how Derrick Henry carved through this Seattle defense in the second half last week, you have to be licking your chops at the prospect of seeing Cook in this match-up. We know the Seattle defense is soft so seeing them allow the second-most rushing yards per game (162.5) shouldn't come as a surprise. This match-up actually has game-stack written all over it. UPDATE: As you see below in the Mattison write-up, there is waning confidence in Cook's status for the game today. Be very mindful if setting lineup with him in there. You should make sure you have a spot to pivot up to a more elite player should you pivot off Cook and onto Mattison in the afternoon.

LATE ADD/MAJOR PIVOT –  The latest word from Adam Schefter was not a positive one surrounding Dalvin Cook.  “As the week progressed, there was a less confident tone that Vikings RB Dalvin Cook would play Sunday vs. Seattle due to his sprained ankle, per source. Cook didn’t practice all week, it’s early in season, and going into pre-game warmups it was considered “unlikely” he plays.” If he is out, we will pivot to Alexander Mattison in our lineups. Yes, I know he wasn't all that last year, but I am more than confident in him today should Cook actually sit. If Cook is out and you use Mattison in your lineups, you have high-end receiver options in Seattle, Minnesota and Los Angeles (the Rams) you can then pivot to, so leave a spot available should you need to change.

For all you Marvel Comics nerds out there, it's simple – if the Juggernaut were a real person, he would be Derrick Henry. This guy can run through anything and we witnessed that, once again, last week when he ran roughshod all over the Seahawks. for 182 yards and three touchdowns. What was even crazier was the six catches he picked up. If he is going to continue seeing targets like that, well then color me surprised as we didn't invest every No. 1 pick on the clear-cut No. 1 back. We won't completely hold our breath on the pass-catching but it's definitely something to keep tabs on. For now, though, let's stay focused on the 120.5 rushing yards the Colts are allowing per game and how Henry's rushed for 430 yards and four touchdowns in his last three against them.

As stated above in the QB section, this has all the earmarks of being a big-time slugfest between two AFC West powerhouses and everyone is expected to get involved. The Chiefs are allowing an average of 202 rushing yards per game through the first two weeks, they've already allowed seven rushing touchdowns and rank 27th in the league against RB pass plays. Ekeler has rushed for at least 50 yards in the first two games and last week against Dallas, he had nine catches for 61 yards. If he can see anywhere close to the same volume in this match-up, oh baby!! Watch out!

Are the G-Men ready to unleash Barkley? If there was a game to do it, this is certainly the one. The Falcons rank 27th in DVOA against the run, they're allowing an average of 127.5 rushing yards per game while allowing 47 yards per game to RB pass plays. Barkley looked great last week on the 41-yrd run and seems like he should be able to handle a strong workload in this match-up. And this price tag?? Come on. Let the big dog eat!

The Jaguars defense is super-soft and this actually might be an opportune time to give Kyler Murray a bit of a rest and lean more on the ground game. Jacksonville is allowing 128 rushing yards per game and have given up two rushing touchdowns. They also rank 17th against RB pass plays. He hasn't gotten into the end zone yet, but his production remains steady. If you were already thinking about stacking Arizona, he should definitely be on your radar.

With all the talk about Lamar Jackson's hip (and his stomach bug), one might think the Ravens could hold him back a little given how soft the match-up is here against the Lions. Williams continues to lead this backfield in both snaps and carries and could be leaned on a little more heavily to open this game. The obvious concern is how much work Latavius Murray and/or Devonta Freeman see in the second half should the Ravens have a strong lead and just want to kill the clock, but Williams should be the lead dog in the first half which is where the Ravens will build that big lead in the first place.

Straight up – I am not a Cordarrelle Patterson guy. I don't think he is a good player and I think everyone is being duped by a guy who got some extra snaps and touches in a losing match-up against the Buccaneers. I still believe Davis is the leader of this backfield and in a match-up that appears to be more evenly balanced, I think Davis walks away with the heavier workload. The Giants rank 30th in DVOA against the run and are allowing 126 rushing yards per game already. I find it a little mind-numbing that this will be the contrarian play, but so goes the herd mentality of fantasy football. Once Davis puts forth a strong day, perhaps the rest of the community will remain quiet and the Patterson truthers can all crawl back down the hole from whence they came.

While the rest of the DFS community keeps using Justin Jefferson, we're going to continue relying on Thielen, whose three touchdowns through the first two weeks is what we're looking for. Yes, we expect Cook to run heavy against this sponge-soft Seattle run defense, but given the fact that both secondaries are fairly weak and give up a lot of passing yards, this could turn into a shootout. Seattle ranks 28th in DVOA against the opposing WR2 and allows an average of 85.5 yards per game to them. In truth, either receiver works, whether it's in a stack or as a one-off, so we'll look to save a few bucks by going with Thielen.

While some panicky, seasonal fantasy players are giving up on Metcalf, we know he is far too talented to be taking a back seat in this offense and this week's match-up against a porous Minnesota secondary should help him announce his presence with authority. The Vikings have allowed 661 passing yards and five touchdowns through the air over the first two weeks of the season and Russell Wilson will help Metcalf get some of that action this week. Tyler Lockett is, obviously, also in-play this week, but we'll take the temporary discount with Metcalf for the time being.

It's not chasing Julio's 128-yard effort when you sit and break down his upcoming match-up against the Colts, a team whose secondary has been a serious Achilles heel thus far. Neither Rock Ya-Sin nor Kenny Moore are going to be able to hang with either Jones or A.J. Brown and they can only float safety help over to one side without leaving a gaping hole in the middle of the field. The Colts rank 31st in DVOA against the opposing WR2 and are allowing an average of 131.5 receiving yards per game to them. Expect another strong game for the veteran wideout. 

You know it's going to happen, right? Everyone and their grandmother will be on Cooper Kupp and we're going to cash our tickets using Robert Woods. That's what happens to mindless sheep on a routine basis. Carlton Davis will likely spend most of his time on Kupp while Woods will match up against Jamel Dean or even Ross Cockrell, neither of whom grade out particularly well against Woods. Have faith that Sean McVay knows what he's doing and expect to see Stafford spread it around more. Oh, and how about this price discount too? Roughly $1800 cheaper for Woods? Yes, please.

Teddy Bridgewater and the Broncos showed us exactly who was the most important receiver with Jerry Jeudy on IR and no one was disappointed. Tim Patrick and K.J. Hamler are more role players than featured wideouts, but Sutton is, and should be, front and center in this offensive scheme. There is no denying the Jets secondary is terrible and Sutton could, very easily, post some strong numbers against them. While we'll recommend him for both cash and GPP, keep in mind that the spread is saying the Broncos are going to wreck the Jets and that could mean a much heavier ground assault in the second half. That might limit some of the GPP upside, but then again, he could produce everything you could possibly need in the first half alone.

The Browns secondary has been taking a few hits through these first two weeks as opposing No. 1 WR are already averaging 151 receiving yards per game against them and it's not going to get any easier with Allen Robinson this week, especially with Justin Fields under center. He's never had a high-end QB slinging him the rock and he still produces at a high end. He may see a little more of Denzel Ward, but the Browns haven't said anything about shadow coverage just yet. Either way, he warrants strong consideration this week.

With Diontae Johnson out for this week's games, Claypool is likely to step into a much larger role. He and Juju Smith-Schuster should see a boost in targets, but Claypool is likely the more explosive of the two as the Steelers use him in a variety of ways. From short screens to jet sweeps to post patterns, they'll use Claypool all over the place and considering how bad Cincinnati's pass-coverage is, he should find success, so long as Big Ben doesn't crap out with the pectoral issue that had bothered him all week. And remember, last year when Johnson got hurt, it was Claypool who was leaned on heavily, not Juju.

The Bengals are in a similar situation as the Steelers now that Tee Higgins is expected to be out. Chase has already been pushing his way up the depth chart and should remain the No. 1 wideout with an added benefit of playing against a pass defense that has now allowed an average of 313.5 passing yards per game with 91 of those yards being claimed by the opposing WR1. We also really like Tyler Boyd in this one but we'll list him over in the Dart Board because of his bargain price.

It's been a busy beginning to the season for Hollywood who has seen 16 targets which he's turned into 12 catches for 192 yards and two touchdowns, and it's going to stay busy this weekend when the Ravens face the Lions. How busy? Well, the Lions rank 24th in DVOA against the opposing WR1 and they've already coughed up an average of 157 receiving yards per game. Yeah, it's going to be that busy.

The breakout is upon us! After four frustrating seasons where we were expecting more than what we got. Williams has certainly delivered the goods this season, though, with 15 catches for 173 yards and two touchdowns on 22 targets and we expect things to keep on rolling. I said it throughout the preseason and you saw it in the Fantasy Alarm NFL Draft Guide – this offensive scheme that Joe Lombardi brought over from the Saints funnels a boatload of targets to the X-receiver. That was what happened with Michael Thomas and that's what is happening with Williams right now. The fact that he will be featured in a shootout against the Chiefs where the over/under is 55.5 makes this all the more tantalizing. 

From landing on the injury report late in the week to dominating the Rams secondary with eight catches for 123 yards last week, Michael Pittman looks like he's ready for the breakout we've been anxiously anticipating. The Titans secondary looks incredibly weak and Pittman should have little to no issues. Reports that Carson Wentz will play have us breathing a bit easier, so feel free to get him into those lineups.

With DeAndre Hopkins (ribs) a true game-time decision and everyone in the world looking to use Rondale Moore, we will happily pivot over to Kirk who has been serving as the team's No. 2 receiver, especially in GPP tournaments where the ownership is expected to be low. The Jaguars are already giving up 295.5 passing yards per game and have allowed four passing touchdowns on th season, plus they rank 30th in DVOA against both the WR1 and 2. SO long as Kyler Murray is throwing, Kirk should prove to be a strong DFS asset.

Once again, with Kelce on the main slate, there are very few reasons to look anywhere else. You know he's getting the ball regardless of the match-up and you know he's going to deliver. It just so happens that the Chargers rank 28th in DVOA against the tight end and while they're not giving up a lot of yards to them, they did cough up an 11-yard TD catch to Logan Thomas back in Week 1. He may be expensive, but Kelce is also the guy who disappoints the least.

Waller is a target monster on this Raiders team and he will continue to see the extra looks come his way this weekend against Miami. Now if the Raiders use him like they usually do, this match-up may not be the easiest as the Dolphins defensive strength is found in their secondary. The Raiders should use him as a more traditional TE and force the match-ups with the linebackers if they can. The Fins rank 18th in DVOA against the position, so if the Raiders can make that happen, he should prove to be just as productive as always.

Tough luck for the Ravens as they opened the season against Darren Waller, took on Travis Kelce on Sunday night and now face Hockenson, who has already seen 20 targets this season which he's turned into 16 catches for 163 yards and two touchdowns. The Lions passing game revolves around him and this week won't be any different, especially because the Ravens have been burned so badly by the position. George Kittle has been struggling so the world is looking for another guy for the Big 3 TEs. Maybe it's Hockenson after this week…?

Or maybe it's Pitts? We've had incredibly high expectations for the rookie coming into the season and we're still waiting for that big game that is supposed to define him. He took a step forward last week and now has what should be a pretty soft match-up. The Giants rank 17th in DVOA against the tight end and allowing an average of 77 yards per game against. The key, though, is that this is how teams have attacked them so far and while neither Noah Fant nor Logan Thomas had crazy big games, the production was steady. If Pitts gets that kind of work, he can turn it into something more.

Let's go, baby! The MANdrews against the Lions? Yes, please. Detroit ranks 32nd in DVOA against the tight end position and has allowed an average of 77.5 receiving yards to them this season. We haven't seen him break out just yet, but knowing his track record, he's an easy one to love this week. It would have been nice if they actually lowered his price tag even just a little bit this week, but he's still a solid option if you're looking to stack Ravens. 

Just as he was in New Orleans, Cook is being well-targeted in this offensive scheme and had it not been for a bogus holding penalty called against the Chargers, he would have logged his first touchdown of the season last week. Cook has the size you want in a big pass-catching tight end and he'll match up real well against the Kansas City defense which ranks 20th in DVOA against tight ends and is allowing an average of 93 yards per game to them. Remember, this is a guy who averaged 600 yards and eight touchdowns per year under Joe Lombardi and his system in New Orleans.

While the Browns are getting back Odell Beckham this week, they are still going to be without Jarvis Landry and that's a reliable passing outlet that needs to be replenished. Receivers like Donovan Peoples-Jones and Rashard Higgins will certainly merit attention, Hooper has been the lead tight end in snaps at the position. Yes, David Njoku has seen a similar snap-count through these first two weeks, but Hooper is also the guy leading the position in routes-run. With no Landry, expect Hooper to be a guy who helps move the chains and is also a big body inside the red zone. 

Even without Bradley Chubb, this Broncos defense should have its way with the Jets on Sunday. Vic Fangio has been cultivating this defense for three seasons and it looks like he's going to reap the benefits with them this year. Wilson will likely try to play it a little more conservatively with his throws, but as the Broncos extend their lead and the Jets get more desperate, the turnovers may start to occur. 

Again, who are the Saints? Are they the team that throttled the Packers or are they the team that got throttled by the Panthers? Either way, this is Bill Belichick scheming to stop Alvin Kamara and allow Jameis Winston to throw all over the field. Advantage: Belichick. Maybe Sean Payton throws a little more Taysom Hill into the mix to prevent a 5-INT day, but by that point, the damage will likely be done.

The Bills are coming off a shutout of the Dolphins and will now face Taylor Heinicke and a Washington offense struggling to find its identity. Antonio Gibson is struggling and aside from Terry McLaurin and maybe Logan Thomas, the weaponry is limited. The Bills have allowed the second-fewest offensive yards through the first two weeks and will be primed to win the turnover battle here. If you can't afford a top-priced unit, they make for a nice discount.

It's Jacoby Brissett, right? Are we being led to believe that somehow the Dolphins will turn things around from last week's atrocity? The offensive line is weak and it should be extremely difficult for the Fins to sustain drives. The over/under is just 44 and I'm leaning on the under as I believe both offenses will struggle. Just keep reading…

The Jaguars lead the league in turnovers, plain and simple. While many believe this could be a trap game for the Cardinals (and I'm not totally against that belief), this Jaguars offense is struggling in a major way. Trevor Lawrence can sling the rock, but he's also making some really poor decisions. The dominance of the Cardinals front-seven should be on display in this one and that will help them with takeaways.

So here's my gut feeling on this and it's something I discussed on the NFL DFS Podcast this week. If we're looking at Jacoby Brissett under center and the Raiders are this dominant 2-0 team, how come this line hasn't moved off Raiders -4 one bit? And why the heck isn't it a bigger spread? What is Vegas telling us about this game? The Fins secondary is its strength and Derek Carr could be in line for a letdown game. Josh Jacobs is out, Peyton Barber sucks at football and while yes, this is a revenge-game for Kenyan Drake, is he really going to do a ton of damage? Outside of Darren Waller, the pass-catchers are far from intimidating and if Carr is off his game, everyone is going to suffer. Yes, I have Waller in the Playbook because he'll continue to see the volume, but I'm looking at a potential upset special here and for those of us who use the Fins in DFS, how about a defensive TD too?