NFL DFS Playbook: Week 5

If you're spending up, he's my No. 1 option, plain and simple. He's got the highest floor for cash games and the highest ceiling for GPP tournaments. What's not to love about Murray and the Cardinals right now? They're 4-0, shrugged off the pundits who cried “trap game” when they went to Jacksonville and then soundly beat the Rams. Murray had a modest game compared to what he usually does – just 268 yards and two touchdowns with 36 rushing yards – but we all know how dangerous the Rams defense is. Now he gets the 49ers whose defense looks like a shell of its former self. They're only allowing 218.3 passing yards per game, but they've given up seven touchdowns through the air and the seventh-most fantasy points per game to the quarterback position. Given how five of the top quarterbacks aren't even on the main slate, he feels like a no-brainer. 

The poor man's Kyler Murray, perhaps? We may not like the Eagles offense overall, but Hurts has produced at a strong level and with the use of his legs, raises the floor to the point where he is a weekly option for cash games. He's thrown for over 300 yards in each of his last two games and has seven passing touchdowns to just two interceptions. There was one game where he didn't throw for  touchdown, but he rushed for 82 yards and a score to bring his fantasy point total past the 20-point barrier. In fact, he's averaging 56.5 rushing yards per game. We know the Panthers defense is good, but the secondary is still lacking. They are still integrating C.J. Henderson and while they traded for Stephon Gillmore, he's not actually playing this week. Hurts may not do to the Panthers what Prescott did to them last week, but he's still going to produce at a high level.

While Dak may not be running like he did before the ankle injury, this Dallas passing attack and his opponent this week give him a high enough floor to use in both cash games and GPP tournaments. These games against the Giants are always big and save for the game one year ago when he broke his ankle, he's averaged roughly 30 fantasy points per game against New York. The Giants are giving up almost 260 passing yards per game, seven passing touchdowns and opposing quarterbacks are posting a 106.2 passer rating against them. They're also giving up the 10th-most fantasy points per game to the QB position. With the way the Dallas offense has looked over these last two weeks, this could be a nightmare game for Big Blue. 

It's amazing what a player can do when he is ripped from the bowels of hell known as Adam Gase and lands in the nurturing bosom of Matt Rhule and Joe Brady. Darnold has been everything he wasn't with the Jets. He's standing tall, slinging the rock with confidence and playing with some swagger. Yes, he leads all quarterbacks with rushing touchdowns. We know. It's the stat everyone seems to be focused on. But rather than center your analysis on that, pay more attention to the nine touchdowns through the air the Eagles have allowed. Or how about the 114.0 passer rating all QBs are collectively posting against them? No one was bullish on the Eagles defense heading into the season and now that they've played the Cowboys and Chiefs rather than the 49ers and Falcons, everyone is finally realizing that we were right the whole time. 

He was a late add to the Watch List this week and I'm sticking with him, for GPP tournaments at least. There are a lot of questions about Daniel Jones with the most important one being – is this for real? Are we genuinely seeing growth here in his third year or is what we are seeing just a product of playing some pretty weak defenses over the past few weeks. Maybe it's a little from Column A and a little from Column B. While Atlanta and Washington's defenses are driving the struggle bus to work, both Denver and New Orleans have been relatively strong, defensively speaking. Jones is sporting a 66.7-percent completion percentage with a strong 8.2 yards per attempt and while he's only thrown four touchdowns, his passing DVOA continues to climb each week, not to mention each year he's been in the NFL. This match-up will be a true test for him as the Cowboys offensive firepower could overwhelm the New York defense. That means, for the Giants to stay in this game, Jones is going to have to light it up. 

Not to slight any of the aforementioned quarterbacks, but Burrow just might be my favorite on the slate next to Murray. We have yet to see him truly unleashed this season as that hasn't been necessary, but this looks like the stars are aligning for that game for which we've been yearning. Personally, I have the Bengals as an upset play this week, but even if they don't win outright, I think they'll cover the spread and it will all be Burrow's doing. Potentially, no Joe Mixon will probably put more emphasis on the passing attack and with Tee Higgins likely to return this week, the Bengals aerial attack is going to give the Packers some serious fits, especially when they will be without Jaire Alexander. The Packers have already allowed 10 passing touchdowns on the year with opposing QBs posting a 100.2 passer rating against them. Expect Burrow to go to-to-toe with Aaron Rodgers in this one and look for the youngster to come out on top.

My biggest concern was how the team would respond in the wake of all this Urban Meyer garbage. Will they crumble because their coach is a complete buffoon who should have stayed in the collegiate ranks or would they use it as a unifying rally-point that inspires them to produce in spite of his antics? I was unsure until I saw a video of Thursday's practice where they huddled up and mocked their coach. As a DFS player, I was actually relieved to see that because this match-up against the Titans looks so juicy, you can't help but want to try a Jaguars stack in GPP tournaments. Tennessee ranks 25th in DVOA against the pass, allowing 266.8 passing yards per game with eight touchdowns allowed through the air. The loss of DJ Chark is a bummer, but with Marvin Jones, Laviska Shenault and new tight end Dan Arnold, Lawrence has enough weapons to succeed in this match-up and offer a tasty return value for the price you have to pay. 

Remember when you couldn't use Henry until the calendar flipped to November? I'm not sure if we're headed for a fall later in the year or not, but I am certainly not going to ignore using the No. 1 running back in the game. It's going to be about price and how you construct your lineups this week, but you can expect high ownership once again. The Titans are the perfect example of the best defense being a good offense because they'll try to keep Henry out there grinding all day to try and kill the clock and escape with a win. The Jaguars are allowing an average of 106.3 rushing yards per game and six rushing touchdowns on the year, so expect Henry to see his usual volume and produce his usual totals. It ain't rocket science, people.

While Cook is listed here, I feel like this might just be a place-holder for Alexander Mattison once again. This happened in Week 3 and not only were we able to make an easy pivot but it allowed us to get a few stud receivers into our lineups and win big. Yes, Millionaire Mike, I'm looking at you, my man. We'll have to wait for official word on Sunday morning, but if you are building lineups now, start with Cook and make the pivot later. Either way, a Vikings running back against this tomato can of a defense Detroit has is a no-brainer. Detroit has allowed 132.8 rushing yards per game and have given up six rushing touchdowns on the season. They give up the fourth-most fantasy points per game and the Vikings run-heavy scheme is going to abuse them throughout the game. Minnesota needs a big statement game after last week's debacle and the poor Lions are going to take the brunt of the abuse.

Am I drinking the Jim Bowden Kool-Aid or does it really make sense to get Zeke into our lineups this week? There is a questionable tag on him, so keep a watchful eye on his status but after putting in limited sessions on Thursday and Friday, this seems like a moment where, back in the day, he would have been listed as probable instead of questionable. But if that helps keep ownership down, we're definitely good with that. The Giants are allowing the 11th-most fantasy points per game to the running back position and have allowed 122.8 yards with four rushing touchdowns on the season. And remember, Dak isn't running, so Zeke is still picking up all those goal-line carries too.

I spoke about Ekeler both on the Fantasy Alarm Show and the NFL DFS Podcast this week regarding potential usage here. The Browns pass-rush is one of the best in the game and needs to be neutralized somehow. Otherwise, Justin Herbert is going to be picking his ass up off the ground all game long. To do that, the Chargers are going to need to utilize Ekeler as the primary pass-catcher. Once the edge rushers commit, Ekeler can do a block-and-release and catch a quick dump-off from Herbert and start running in space. This won't be like last week when he's rushing for over 100 yards, but more like Week 2 when he saw nine targets. The Browns rank 20th in DVOA against running back pass-plays and may have to adjust their defensive scheme after Ekeler's burned them a few times.

I was wavering between Harris and Nick Chubb for the past 24 hours and ultimately put my personal feelings aside and landed on Harris. Why? Volume and a lack of alternatives. Until Kevin Stefanski fully commits to Chubb as his one-and-only, we have to be concerned with Kareem Hunt's usage. We don't have that concern in Pittsburgh. Harris has averaged almost 25 touches per game over the last two weeks and continues to be the focal point of this Pittsburgh offense, especially with Ben Roethlisberger at less than 100-percent. He is incredibly active in the passing game but also has the size and strength to take it between the tackles. While the Broncos haven't given up much in the way of rushing yards, they also haven't faced a team with a bell-cow back yet. They're also built similarly to the Browns which means running it up the gut to avoid the edge rushers is going to be a big thing. For this price, you might not find a better value.

As I said in the Watch List, I absolutely hate recommending a Patriots running back. But this match-up against the Texans might just be too good to pass up, especially when you factor in the expected game-flow. Houston is giving up 137 rushing yards per game and have allowed eight rushing touchdowns on the season. There's no reason the Patriots shouldn't lean on Harris and give him a chance at a breakout, confidence-building game. It's not like they're going to have to do much in the way of passing the ball. Thankfully, the price is extremely reasonable.

Once David Montgomery went down with the knee injury, Williams landing on my radar was a no-brainer. It took a few days of studying practices and waiting for Matt Nagy to take his head out of his ass and name Justin Fields the starter, but once that happened, Williams was added to the Watch List and lands here in the Playbook. We know he is completely in-tune with this offensive scheme as he played for two years under Andy Reid and Nagy's offense is a knock-off of that system. He's versatile enough to carry it between the tackles, run it outside and, of course, to catch passes. The Bears have been giving Montgomery roughly 15-18 touches per game and they're expected to continue that as a strong ground effort will certainly help alleviate some of the pressure from Fields. The Raiders rank just 18th in DVOA against the run and 22nd against running back pass-plays. 

How many times do we have to say how bad the Lions are? I said it all week when discussing this match-up and I reiterated it above when discussing Dalvin Cook/Alexander Mattison. Heck, I had Kirk Cousins in the Watch List and almost had him here in the Playbook again. Need more? Well, if you want to talk coverage numbers, then sure – Detroit ranks 25th in DVOA against the opposing No. 1 receiver and are allowing an average of 104 receiving yards per game to them. Once the Vikings have the run established and feel like opening things up through the air. Jefferson is going to have no trouble shaking covering and getting open for some big plays downfield.

It's amazing what two weeks of battling a rib injury and not scoring any touchdowns can do to an elite receiver's price tag in DFS. At some point, the cost drops to a level where you just have to invest regardless of match-ups. It just so happens that this week's match-up is also a favorable one and we're going to take full advantage. The 49ers defense just isn't what it used to be and while the DVOA numbers seem middle-of-the-road, keep in mind that they haven't really played anyone with enough firepower to light them up. Well, they lost to the Seahawks and the Packer, but this Arizona team is ridiculous. Hopkins is going to be a must if you can afford him.

So, clearly, there is favoritism going on here and the rumors of Sam Darnold not looking Robby Anderson's way because it reminds him too much of the Jets are true. Moore has blossomed right alongside Darnold in this offense and the two of them are like two peas in a pod – they're like the Panthers' version of Stafford and Kupp. Now going up against a suspect Eagles secondary has DFS players salivating as Philly ranks 31st in DVOA against opposing WR1s and is giving up 88.8 yards per game to them. Moore should continue to produce this week. 

If you caught me on Friday's Fantasy Alarm Show or on the NFL DFS Podcast, you may have heard me back off my stance on McLaurin due to rain in the forecast in DC. However, the most recent update I just got has the rain tapering off around 9am ET and then staying away for the rest of the day. So game on, baby!! We're back in on Scary Terry and very happy to be back in business with the Washington wideout. The Saints still believe that Marshon Lattimore is some unstoppable force in coverage, but that is far from the truth these days. In fact, Lattimore's coverage skills have declined significantly over the last three seasons and He is going to have trouble keeping pace with McLaurin's speed. It's not the Falcons in coverage, though, so maybe only expect one touchdowns and not two. 

The injury designation is gone and we are now getting one of the top receivers in the game at a serious discount. I have him as a GP-only player, though, because of that inherent fear that he plays 10 snaps, the hamstring tightens up on him again and puts him out for the rest of the game. I don't think that's going to happen but we do have to protect ourselves. Nevertheless, this match-up is far too tasty to pass up as the Jaguars rank dead-last in DVOA against the pass and 24th against opposing No. 1 receivers, allowing an average of 92.3 receiving yards per game to them. If I've got the expected game flow right for this, we'll see Henry early on, the Jaguars passing attack will fight back and Ryan Tannehill will have to turn to Brown to keep pace. Again, for this price, it's a strong GPP play. 

He was a late add to the Watch List on Friday, so the analysis stays the same. Overall, the match-up against this Miami secondary isn't great for Tampa Bay but a more granular look gives Godwin a nice boost. When the Bucs are in 12-personnel, Godwin sits on the outside and goes up against either Xavien Howard or Byron Jones which is less than desirable. However, as Colby Conway points out in the WR coach, when they switch to 11-personnel (three-receiver sets), Godwin moves into the slot where he is up against either Justin Coleman or even Nik Needham, both of whom, he can torch on a regular basis. The Bucs use enough 12-personnel to know that Godwin is going to get fed an abundance of targets in a number of situations and should be the Bucs wideout you should target. 

LATE ADD – It's tough to argue against 26 targets over the last two games and a match-up coming up against a terrible Houston Texans team, isn't it? Not to mention a quick glance at our Draft Percentage Forecaster indicates that he is going to be a very popular pick which means cash-game viable, especially on Draft Kings with its full-point PPR format. I don't anticipate Mac Jones doing a lot of throwing in this one, but this is also a great opportunity for Belichick to get Jones some extra work doing different things in this offense. If Meyers can continue to see the volume, he'll make his points on that alone. If he can do more with yards after the catch or even find the end zone, it's even better.

First off, let me just say that, with Jaire Alexander out for this week, Ja'Marr Chase is very much in-play this week. If you choose to use him, I am all for it. I am leaning on Higgins here because of the price. We're going to need value if we want to take advantage of using players like Kyler Murray or Derrick Henry and receiver seems to be a nice spot to settle in on the mid-tier pricing. I had Tyler Boyd in the Watch List, but with Higgins returning from injury, I expect Boyd to drop to third on the targets list for this game. The Packers actually rank 31st against the opposing WR2 and while they may only be allowing 67.2 receiving yards per game to them, they are giving up the touchdowns an that's where we're going to see the value. 

Just like we're doing with the Bengals receivers, we are going to focus on the price tag of Shenault, but that doesn't mean Marvin Jones isn't in-play. The Titans defense, particularly the secondary, is atrocious and I can see both receivers eating heartily in this one. I'll probably be stacking Jags at some point too, so keep an eye out in the Sunday Morning updates and Example Lineups. Meanwhile, with regard to Shenault, it was he who stepped up the most when D.J. Chark went down with the broken ankle. He's got the versatility to move between the outside and the slot where he will see some very favorable coverage match-ups and should see a boatload of targets once again. And with this price discount, I may just lock him into all of my lineups.  

My man Jon Impemba mentioned Waddle during the podcast and I immediately shut him down. I hate Jacoby Brissett and I hate this Miami offense. However, in doing some additional digging, I've circled back around to Waddle, his seven targets per game and the potential increase in usage with Will Fuller already back on IR. I still don't LOVE the play, but if he is going to routinely see a heavy target share, then I can't ignore him given the way Tampa's secondary has played in recent weeks. Injuries have gotten the better of them and when the Dolphins fall behind, Brissett is going to have to target someone.

Someone check on Jim Bowden after he reads this because when he sees that I've put the Giants Swiss Army knife in the Playbook, he's going to pass out. But with no Sterling Shepard, no Darius Slayton, Kenny Golladay expected to be shadowed by Trevon Diggs, Toney looks to be in a prime spot to get some serious work out of the slot which is arguably, the biggest weakness in the Dallas secondary. With Jourdan Lewis as their slot-corner, Dallas ranks dead last in DVOA against the slot and they are allowing an average of 67.8 yards per game to them. With the expectation of this being a pass-heavy game for the Giants, it would be well worth the cost to see another nine targets come Toney's way.

How about a little dart-throw in the Playbook? The Giants biggest weakness in coverage is against slot receivers and Wilson has seen 87% of his snaps from there this season. That's not to say CeeDee Lamb or Amari Cooper can't have some fun too as both have taken snaps out of the slot as well, but Wilson is there most of the time in three-receiver sets and we've already seen a lot of those from the Cowboys. If you're thinking about a Cowboys stack this weekend, Wilson will be the guy who saves you enough money to add some studs elsewhere. 

Simply put, the Lions don't have anyone and with the loss of center Frank Ragnow and tackle Penei Sewell, they aren't going to find much success running the ball. Jared Goff is going to be running for his life throughout the game and is going to need a quick release or he's going to take a lot of sacks. With T.J. Hockenson questionable and possibly out, Cephus is the only option. The Vikings secondary is atrocious and they rank 26th in DVOA against both the WR1 and WR2 so look for Cephus to line up all over the place and be the security blanket Goff is going to need. If he can get into the end zone, he should return a solid value.

With no Kelce, Kittle, Andrews, Gronk and likely no Hockenson either, where else are you going to go at TE this week? I've provided a couple of mid-tier options, but let's face it – you're either paying up for Waller or you're punting this position entirely. If you're nervous about the latter, then get yourself some Waller who leads the Raiders in targets, receptions and receiving yards. The match-up isn't ideal as the Bears have done a decent job against the position, but, then again, they haven't faced anyone even close to Waller's talent. 

You may not want to believe it, but the Bucs are terrible against the tight end. Terrible. They rank 25th in DVOA against the position, they give up almost 70 yards per game to them and they allow the third-most fantasy points per game. Gesicki has seen 18 targets in the two games with Jacoby Brissett under center and remains a major focal point in a struggling Miami offense. 

While Jonnu Smith's snap count seem to be steadily increasing, Henry still sees more snaps and more opportunities. I've been a big fan of both for some time now and each is going to contribute significantly to this offensive scheme. We're just still trying to figure out which one is going to make fantasy owners happier. They both saw the same number of targets last week and they both found their way into the end zone. It might simply come down to price for us in the end.

Despite the annoying drops and subpar performances, the data says this is a golden opportunity for a knucklehead like Engram. The Cowboys are allowing the ninth-most fantasy points per game to the tight end and they rank 30th against them in DVOA. We'll have to check on the health of Darius Slayton and Sterling Shepard, but if they're out again, maybe Engram surprises us with some key grabs and a little end zone dancing.

With no Rob Gronkowski this week and little faith in O.J. Howard, Brate pops up onto the radar this week. In the game and a half Gronk missed, Brate saw 11 targets, including two red zone looks. Miami ranks 20th in DVOA against the tight end and are allowing 56.8 receiving yards per game to the position. If Brate can attract the same looks Brady usually sends Gronk's way, then there is a very good chance he finds the end zone this week and pays off this value.

After last week's Cordarrelle Patterson call, Jon Impemba is now dipping his toe into the TE Whisperer pool. He threw down RSJ's name for the Watch List and given the state of the position and potential lineup construction pay-down thoughts, we're going to stick with it. With Logan Thomas out for the next four or five weeks, Impemba is eyeballing that minimum DK price for the Washington tight end, citing a 92-percent snap share this past week. We'd like him a bit more had Curtis Samuel not returned for this week, but RSJ would still likely be second or third in target share regardless. Save some shekels, get him into your lineups and hope for a touchdown.

Remember last year when we had Firsker in the Watch List and he went off for over 100 yards and multiple touchdowns? We do. If you don't believe me, go ask Andrew Cooper, Fantasy Alarm's other TE Whisperer. This could be a big game for the tight end, especially with Julio Jones out and AJ Brown being the only quality receiving option. Jacksonville ranks 31st in DVOA against the tight end and the 11th most fantasy points per game to them. We're very much into punting the position in GPP tournaments, so this just might be the play this week.

It's Bill Belichick scheming against a rookie quarterback. That should be all you need to know. Davis Mills doesn't stand a chance and don't even think about the Brandon Cooks/Danny Amendola revenge-game narrative. This game has turnover central written all over it and smells like one of those 23-0 final scores, doesn't it?

The Cardinals have the third-most takeaways in the NFL right now while the 49ers have six giveaways. This will be Trey Lance's first start in the NFL and if you watched his performance last week, you'll be falling all over yourself to get the Cardinals defense into your lineups everywhere. 

When in doubt, turn to the guys you trust the most. My man Jon Impemba loves using the Steelers defense at home, so who am I to argue against him? The Broncos might be without Courtland Sutton, Teddy Bridgewater is just coming back from a concussion and Pat Shurmur's offense is about as vanilla as Impemba's taste in ice cream. 

When I say Detroit is bad, I fully expect the whole crowd to say, “How bad is it?” Again, no Penei Sewell and no Frank Ragnow on the offensive line means zero run-blocking and VERY limited protection for Jared Goff. I've been very vocal about how bad the Vikings secondary is, but even that won't matter because the Minnesota front seven is going to wreak havoc on the Detroit offense. 

Wouldn't it be so Daniel Jones if the Giants QB were to revert back to his old turnover-prone ways this week? The Cowboys have 10 takeways this season and they'll have Trevon Diggs shadowing the Giants best receiver. Micah Parsons is going to help stuff the run and this game could very well have me getting no action from my Giants fan of a wife while also serving up torment from my co-host on Jukebox Monday. This price on DK, by the way….is criminal.