NFL DFS Playbook: Week 6

It's difficult to imagine the Chiefs not coming out and doing whatever it takes to throttle the Washington defense after what's gone on this season. They've failed to beat the Ravens, Chargers and Bills, all top teams in the AFC and while they've beaten the Browns and Eagles, they've given up almost 30 points per game in those two wins. This team is up against it right now and Mahomes is going to want to take over and right this ship. He's lost his starting running back and may be without his top wide receiver this week, but there are enough weapons on this team for him to sling the rock and rack up points. Washington's defense has been a disaster this season and they rank 29th in DVOA against the pass. If you're paying up at the QB position, it starts right here.

When facing a team with a potent offense, the Ravens defense has struggled to contain them which has forced Jackson into some of his bigger performances and this game looks very similar. Against the Raiders and Chiefs, he threw for close to 240 yards with a score, but also rushed for an average of 96.5 yards and scored twice. Last week against the Bills, it was 442 passing yards, four touchdowns and he still rushed 14 times for 62 yards. This game has the second-highest total on the board, the Chargers rank 31st in DVOA against the run and, obviously, have one of the highest-scoring teams in the league. Jackson should warrant VERY strong consideration. 

Well, if we're looking at potentially high-scoring match-ups and have Lamar Jackson in our crosshairs, there is not reason to ignore Herbert. The Ravens rank 19th in DVOA against the run, 20th against the pass and have struggled in both downfield coverage and against running back pass-plays. Herbert is coming off a spectacular performance and while Mike Williams is questionable for this game, he still has fantastic receiving weapons in Keenan Allen, Jared Cook and even Austin Ekeler. I will probably build two game-stack lineups off this game and keep my fingers crossed that both hit. 

Stafford was someone I was eyeballing pretty closely this week, not because of him or the Rams even but more for what the condition of their opponent was going to be. The Giants were demoralized, losing Daniel Jones, Saquon Barkley, Kenny Golladay and then watching their only healthy wideout get thrown out for punching a dude in the face. But the return of Jones, along with Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton, puts a whole different spin on this offense. So, maybe the Rams don't just run the ball all day. Perhaps the Giants make a game out of this and force Stafford to do a little more throwing than originally expected.

When you listen to the NFL DFS Podcast or read the QB Coach, you'll see me and Jon Impemba on opposite sides here on Burrow. But Jon isn't hating on the guy. He's seems to just be more disappointed in the fact that the Bengals are leading with a run-heavy scheme and Burrow isn't slinging the rock 40-50 times per game right now. Sure, I would love to see that too, but Burrow has provided you with a very safe floor s he's posted 21-plus fantasy points in four of his first five games and that makes him a very affordable cash-game play. Even if the Bengals lead with Mixon this week, they're still going to throw 25-plus times and, given the weapons, allow Burrow to continue his streak of five-straight games with at least two touchdown passes. I'm perfectly happy with that as the floor because if the Lions get ornery here and make this a more competitive game, Burrow always has the potential of blowing it up even more.   

With word that Terry McLaurin's absence from practice Friday was more precautionary than anything, we can happily leave Heinicke in the Playbook. I was definitely worried there for a few, but feel a little more at ease right now and we can get back to where we were with him earlier in the week. If the fact that Heinicke is going to have to try and keep pace with Mahomes and the Chiefs offense doesn't convince you that this game could be a barn-burner, check out that 54 game total Vegas has laid out there. Similar to their opponent, Kansas City is allowing almost 300 yards per game as well. They've allowed 10 touchdowns through the air and opposing QBs have posted the fourth-highest passer rating (109.6) against them. It's a shame Curtis Samuel reinjured himself, but Heinicke has plenty of weapons to make this a game you want to stack. 

When Wentz, on his wonky ankles, threw for 228 with two touchdowns against Miami, I was relieved to see the performance. I wasn't totally sold, but it was encouraging. Watching him throw for 402 yards and two touchdowns against Baltimore last week, I was fully convinced and am ready to invest again. People will point to Houston and say there's no reason for Wentz to be throwing and we're going to see a lot of Jonathan Taylor and while we may see a heavy ground attack early, we know this Colts secondary is trash and Davis Mills should be able to find success passing against them. I'm not saying it's going to be a shootout, but we'll see enough that will ensue Wentz will be throwing throughout the game and we'll get paid off by the team with the fifth-highest implied total this week.

It was amazing how many people doubted me when I said Ekeler could be this year's Alvin Kamara, based on the change of system and Joe Lombardi's introduction of the Saints' scheme to the Chargers. Well, you're all on the bandwagon now, aren't you? Ekeler has averaged just over 13 carries and five targets per game this season and already has seven touchdowns and all of those numbers are going up as the season progresses and the team gets more comfortable in the scheme. It could get a big spike this week with Mike Williams injured. Whether he plays or not, we could see a bigger lean on Ekeler against a run defense that allowed 123 rushing yards last week and has already coughed up six rushing touchdowns.

As stated above, there is certainly an expectation that Taylor will be run fairly heavily in this game. He looked fantastic on Monday night against the Ravens and it was great to see him incorporated into the passing attack as well. Granted, he didn't do much receiving work after the 76-yard touchdown catch that led off the scoring, but he saw the lion's share of the carries and gets to work over a run defense that is allowing almost 135 rushing yards per game and has given up a league-high nine rushing touchdowns. We want this game to stay competitive, though, because a blow-out could mean more Nyheim Hines and, if the Colts really are shopping Marlon Mack, he could get some heavy garbage-time carries in the second half. Let's hope the Colts secondary opens the door for Mills and the Texans offense.

There doesn't appear to be much concern over this stress fracture as Gibson ran pretty hard on it last week and found the end zone twice. You can expect Washington to try and lead with the run early and try to keep the pace of the game down and use long, sustained drives to keep Mahomes & Co. off the field as much as possible. But given the struggles Washington has had on defense, this one could turn into a shootout and if there was ever a game to increase Gibson's receiving work, it's this one as the Chiefs, who are giving up 141 rushing yards per game with nine rushing touchdowns allowed, happen to also rank 28th in DVOA against running back pass-plays. The only thing we have to watch for is the Chiefs jumping out to a big lead and push Washington into catch-up mode. If that happens, we may see more J.D. McKissic who you may or may not see in the Dart Board this week.  

While Mixon only put in a limited practice Friday due to the ankle issues, it looks like we've got the green light for him this weekend and he should see his normal workload. That might depress Jon Impemba who is still wishing for Joe Burrow to throw 50 time per game, but he can make himself feel better by getting a very reasonably-priced Mixon into his DFS lineups. Detroit is allowing 130.2 rushing yards per game and they've allowed six rushing touchdowns thus far. With the volume we've seen Mixon get, he could have a big week. After all, the Lions are giving up the fourth-most fantasy points per game to running backs this season. 

With news that Nick Chubb (calf) is out for this week, Hunt steps in as the Browns No. 1 running back and while we may see a splash of Demetric Fenton, Hunt should receive the full complement of touches in this offense. Arizona may rank 13th in DVOA against the run, but they are allowing the fourth-most rushing yards per game (139.0) and 16th in DVOA against running back pass-plays, allowing just over 40 yards per game to them. You should also keep a watchful eye out on the news Saturday and Sunday morning as the Cardinals are dealing with a COVID outbreak and have already lost three coaches, including Kliff Kingsbury. More could be on the way.

There are a lot of pros and cons when looking at Henderson this week. More pros than cons but the one con we can't ignore is the injury history. Henderson has left three of the Rams five games with some sort of injury and while he's come back into some of those games, there is still the potential that Mr. Glass shatters and we lose him for most of the game. But the pros for this week are REALLY tasty as the Giants rank 26th in DVOA against the run, allow 138.4 rushing yards per game, have coughed up five touchdowns on the ground and allow the seventh-most fantasy points per game to the running back position. Oh yeah, and they also allow almost 50 yards per game to running back pass-plays. Considering there's not much reliable value at the position on the slate, I would consider him for cash games, but my favorite would be GPP tournaments.

With Damien Williams out with COVID, Herbert will now serve as the Bears No. 1 running back. He rushed 18 times for 75 yards as the Bears looked to chew up the clock last week against the Raiders and looked solid taking it between the tackles and doing a lot of north/south running. He was never much of a pass-catcher in college, so we may see Ryan Nall get involved in some third-down situations, but not enough for it to ruin Herbert's spot as our value-back this week.

After his 200-yard performance this past week, many will be chasing, but that doesn't mean we can't get a little chalky? Sometimes that's all you've got and with the bye weeks here, you have to take what the slate gives you. Probably don't need to do much in the way of analysis here, but in case you need to see something, you can look to the Bears rankings 30th in DVOA against the opposition's No. 1 receiver. The salary could be tough to fit in, especially in cash games, but if there's a receiver who's worth it, it's Adams.

The Giants rank 22nd in DVOA against the pass and they've struggled mightily against slot receivers this year. Kupp is lining up out of the slot 71-percent of the time, so he'll be going up against Julian Love which, according to our friends over at Pro Football Focus, tilts very much in favor of Kupp. Last week's performance by Robert Woods will hopefully split some of the ownership on Rams receivers this week and, if so, that could be a huge turn in our favor.

Tough to call Jefferson a contrarian play, but given how the Panthers have tried to improve their secondary, most people will likely avoid the match-up. But the Panthers actually rank dead-last in DVOA against the opposing WR1 and are allowing an average of 76.1 receiving yards to them this season. He's got three touchdowns on the season and two 100-yard efforts in his last three games. If Kirk Cousins is even having a half-decent game, Jefferson should get a ton of attention.

Talk about knee-jerk reactions to news. My bad, people. My bad. I was pushing the chips all-in on McLaurin when I first posted the Watch List, but yanked him out on Friday when new broke that he didn't practice Friday. Not that coach-speak couldn't be in-play here, but Ron Rivera and Scott Turner both said that McLaurin's absence from Friday's practice was strictly precautionary and he is expected to play his full complement of snaps on Sunday. Phew! This match-up would have been way to tasty to miss, so make sure you get him into your lineups. The Chiefs rank 26th in DVOA against opposing No. 1 wideouts, they are allowing an average of almost 90 yards per game to them and are giving up the 11th-most fantasy points per game to the position.

I so badly want to say that this is the week Robby Anderson gets back on-track, but with the way Moore has been playing and with how often Sam Darnold looks his way, you can probably expect Matt Rhule and Joe Brady move Moore around and have him opposite Bashaud Breeland more than Patrick Peterson. Not that it would matter as neither corner is going to be able to hang with Moore consistently. While last week's game was a big dud, Moore is still averaging 10 targets, seven receptions and 88 yards per game with three touchdowns. The Vikings are going to have a tough time containing him this week.

People can yammer on about sustainability of his reception to touchdown ratio all they want. It doesn't affect my thinking in the least. Bottom line is that Chase is a stud and Burrow LOVES throwing to him. Remember what happened on Draft Day when the Bengals were on the clock? Burrow held his breath, plugged his ears and stomped up and down until they drafted Chase. True story. Anyway, the Lions rank 27th in DVOA against the pass and 22nd in DVOA against the opposing No. 1 receiver. They're allowing over 90 yards per game to that top wideout and with how Chase routinely gets open downfield, we could be looking at a multi-score effort.

The hope here is that Mike Williams (questionable with a knee issue) plays and pulls some coverage away because we're eyeballing Allen this week in what could be a smash spot for the veteran wideout. He's seeing the majority of his snaps out of the slot which means he's facing Tavon Young in a super-soft match-up where he could be an absolute beast in the realm of targets and receptions. The price tag, especially on Draft Kings, is fantastic and if this game hits that game total like we expect it to, he should be in for some serious points this week. 

On paper, this match-up doesn't appear to be all that great, but there are obviously a number of things working against the Raiders this week. Number one is the obvious – we don't know how this team is going to react to the Jon Gruden situation. Number two is the personnel in the secondary. If Casey Hayward doesn't shadow Sutton, then look for Denver to move him around enough that he will see Amik Robertson or Nate Hobbs in coverage. Advantage: Sutton. And I mean a SERIOUS advantage. They're horrible in coverage and won't be able to keep pace with Sutton, physically or mentally. If Hayward does shadow him, things might get a little more difficult, but these two are very familiar with each other from when Hayward played for the Chargers. When they have met up, Sutton has gotten the upper hand each time and has three recorded touchdowns with Hayward in coverage. There is a lot of value here in the mid-tier pricing of receivers, so if you're building a few lineups, make sure you grab a piece here. 

Cooks is the top weapon for Davis Mills and the Colts rank 25th in DVOA against the opposition's No. 1 wideout. He fell off the radar last week because he was facing Belichick and as the top weapon on his team, you have to expect Belichick to take him on. I keep telling Ronis it was the reverse revenge-game narrative. But this match-up should feel like a cakewalk after being bracketed by the Patriots throughout the game. Expect a much stronger effort with much better results this week.

Don't let the DVOA numbers fool you. Houston may rank ninth against the run, but that is simply because no one spends a lot of time throwing on them. That doesn't mean their corners are good as much as it means they just suck against the run. But with Carson Wentz finally healthy and ready to sling the rock, we will see Pittman get his usual complement of targets. Last week he made a spectacular catch inside the end zone and once Wentz gets close to the red zone, expect to see Pittman in the crosshairs.

By now you've heard me discuss this game, ad nauseum, with Jon Impemba, Adam Ronis and Craig Mish. But after discussing and hearing them all out, I am starting to lean more on understanding why this game has a three-point spread yet a 50 over/under. The Patriots played the Bucs tight and it wouldn't be the craziest thing in the world to see Dallas win this won 27-24. To do so, the Patriots are going to need a Herculean effort from Meyers. OK, fine, he's never scored a touchdown and has this dubious record of most catches without a score, but he's still averaging eight targets per game, has two games with double-digit targets and is a staple in this offense right now. He's in the slot for 72-percent of his snaps which puts him opposite Jourdan Lewis who is easily the Achilles heel of this Cowboys secondary. If Kadarius Toney can light him up for 187 yards, imagine what Meyers should be able to do.

With Quintez Cephus joining Tyrell Williams on injured reserve, St. Brown is suddenly the new No. 1 in Detroit and has averaged eight targets per game over the Lions' last two. While I'm not in love with this play, when it comes to Draft Kings, you tend to need some salary relief and, frankly, there isn't a whole lot of it on the slate right now. We may be able to find some in the Dart Board, but, even though this is Detroit, where else are you going to find a No. 1 receiver at this price. The Bengals secondary is still dealing with the loss of Trae Waynes, so if there' an opening downfield, expect Jared Goff to take some shots downfield here.

To be completely transparent, I don't even look at match-up numbers for Kelce anymore. I've found that, when playing DFS, if you aren't paying up for Kelce, you better have a ridiculous sick lineup as the reason for the pay-down at tight end. This week, even more so as the Chiefs could be without Tyreek Hill who has been dealing with a knee and a quad issue. Even if Hill does play, he could be limited or even leave early depending on what the injury actually is. If he's out, yes, the Football Team will try to focus on Kelce, but their defense has been so bad this season, it seems unlikely they will be able to stop him. 

Like Washington, Denver doesn't give up a ton of points to the tight end position, but when the tight end works like a receiver and is flooded with targets, you're looking at an entirely different situation. He sits in te top three on every tight end leaderboard from targets to receptions to receiving yards to fantasy points. If you're not paying up for Kelce, then Waller serves as a fantastic option, especially given the fact that he's had tremendous success during his last two trips to the Mile High City.

I mean…did you see that Monday night performance? It's not like we're chasing anything as the MANdrews has long been considered a top TE, but to see the touchdowns and the two two-point conversions, you've got to love the way Lamar Jackson dialed into him inside the red zone. It certainly doesn't hurt that the Chargers rank 29th in DVOA against the tight end and are allowing an average of 80.1 receiving yards per game to them.

For those looking for a cheaper piece of the Cowboys, then Schultz might be a decent fit for you. I was talking to Ronis about him and the point was made that just like I said about Houston's DVOA against receivers, you have to look at the Patriots' prowess against tight ends in similar fashion; that they haven't really faced any decent tight ends or offenses that actually feature one. Schultz has been incorporated into this passing attack in strong fashion, so much so that Bill Belichick gave him a mention in a recent press conference and when the mad genius singles you out, you have to be considered a strong weapon.

It's no secret that Henry is the lead tight end in this system, though that fact does make me wonder if Belichick is going to lean Jonnu Smith this week just to mess with everyone's minds. We'll make a final decision later on but for now, we'll focus on the Cowboys ranking 30th in DVOA against the position and giving up 69 yards per game to them. Buckle up. This one should be interesting.

He's on the field for almost every snap, just as Logan Thomas was when he was the starting tight end for Washington. He saw eight targets against the Saints and should continue to to be an active part of this passing attack, especially against the Chiefs who rank 27th in DVOA against the tight end and are allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per game to the position. In truth, when I'm building lineups, if I'm not paying up for Kelce, I'm paying down for RSJ. It's really as simple as that for me.

LATE ADD – They're obviously priced up on FanDuel and Draft Kings, but what is up with this price tag on Yahoo? They have six takeaways and are going up against a Giants team that features Daniel Jones just off a concussion and two of his top receivers back from hamstring issues so maybe their timing is a little off today? There's just too much you can do with a lineup on Yahoo by using them, so we're going to hope for the Giants to return to their turnover-prone ways.

Vic Fangio has this defense looking better and better and now facing the Raiders, this could be an explosive match-up. Denver has only six takeaways on the year, but they rank 10th in overall DVOA, they give up the second-fewest points per game this season and third-fewest in total yards. If the Raiders are distracted by all this Gruden stuff, they could get sloppy and make a bunch of mental mistakes. I'll pay up for the Broncos with that possibility.

The secondary might be trashy, but the Colts front-seven is still pretty fierce, led by Darius Leonard and DeForrest Buckner. They rank fourth in the league in takeaways and are going to try to get to Davis Mills early and often. If they can force him into a few mistakes here and there, we could be looking at a legit defensive touchdown, not like last week which got take away for what was deemed a forward pass and not a lateral. 

We've been riding the Cowboys defense all season and there is very little reason to stop. Mac Jones and the Patriots don't make a ton of mental mistakes, but the Cowboys are an opportunistic bunch who have the second-most takeaways in the league right now. The price is right over on FanDuel, so if you are floating in the mid-tier, they definitely deserve a look. 

Arizona has the third-most takeaways this season and are catching a Browns team that is without it's featured asset in Nick Chubb. They're also getting Baker Mayfield who has not been a strong passer…not just this year…but ever. If the Cardinals don't have any more COVID issues and have all their personnel on the field, they should make for a strong play this week.

On the other side of the Browns/Cardinals game, we cannot ignore Cleveland's defense. They only have two recorded takeaways, but with those two INT, they also have 16 sacks for a total loss of 117 yards. Their defense helps them with the battle for field position and if Kyler Murray's shoulder isn't 100-percent, this could be a terrible week for the Cardinals. Keep tabs on the news throughout Saturday and early Sunday morning as we could have a strong pay-down for sure.