NFL DFS Playbook: Week 9

I love everything about Allen this week except for the high price-tag. As I stated in the Watch List, the Jaguars are giving up 278.1 passing yards and have coughed up 11 touchdowns through the air, but we also have the threat of a rushing touchdown or two from Allen himself. Opposing quarterbacks are posting a 113.5 passer rating, highest in the NFL, against them and have systematically dismantled the Jaguars defense with a league-best 74-percent completion rate and have been sacked fewer times by Jags defenders than any other team in the league right now. If you can afford to pay up, he's definitely worth it.

There's a lot to like about Jackson this week and he is likely to be my primary cash game quarterback. He's averaging 23.7 fantasy points per game this season and if you look at his last three years, he's averaging just over 25 fantasy points per game coming off a bye. Now he gets the Vikings who are going to give him way more running room than he should be allowed. They rank 20th in DVOA against the run because they've been selling out to stop the pass a lot more, so if Jackson doesn't find his guys open downfield, he's going to take off through the massive running lanes he'll be offered. And while the Vikings do rank 3rd in DVOA against the pass, the secondary still isn't that great, so I expect an all-around solid game here from the Ravens signal-caller.

I was reading the QB Coach from Jon Impemba and I get the desire to fade Herbert due to recent struggles and a bear of a travel schedule, but I'm not impressed with this Eagles defense by any means. They don't give up a ton of yardage because teams have had success running against them, but they've now allowed 14 touchdowns through the air and opposing QBs have been incredibly efficient against them, posting a combined 101.4 passer rating against them. He's not going to be my go-to choice for cash games, but I wouldn't be against using him there and I am definitely in on him for GPP tournaments.

I love the consistency we continue to get from Burrow as he is averaging 276.9 passing yards per game this season and has yet to throw fewer than two touchdowns in any game this year. He's very calm and collected which is fantastic for a second-year guy coming off a major knee injury, so my confidence in him continues to grow. The Browns have a strong pass rush, so the Bengals offensive line is going to be tested, but if Burrow gets rid of the ball quickly, he'll neutralize that pass rush and be able to rack up some yards downfield. Now the Browns are only allowing an average of 220 passing yards per game this season, but they've given up 17 touchdowns through the air (third-most in the NFL) and opposing quarterbacks have managed an impressive 100.2 passer rating against them. Burrow's price tag is pretty solid, especially on DK, so continue to put your trust into him.

If you want to pay down even further, well then welcome back, Tyrod! He's not my favorite pay-down on the slate, but pairing him up with Brandin Cooks should yield strong results and allow you to fit a few extra beasts into your GPP lineup. The Fins have struggled against the pass all year, allowing 291.1 passing yards per game with 17 touchdowns through the air. In addition to the easy passing work, Taylor has shown the ability to extend plays with his legs and pick up some extra rushing yards here or there. 

No here's the GPP pay-down. Are you kidding me with this price? Listen, Jordan Love may not be a great quarterback right now, but he only needs to be good to return value at this price. If he turns out to be very good, then we're crushing it even more. I mean, he's priced like a third-tier tight end, for crying out loud. The match-up is actually a favorable one as the Chiefs allow almost 270 passing yards per game, they've given up 15 passing touchdowns and opposing quarterbacks have posted a 103.3 passer rating (seventh-highest) against them. Obviously this is a GPP only play, but jeez….you can pair him up with an overpriced Davante Adams and still build an insanely powerful lineup. If they hit, you're cashing. 

With word that Trevor Siemian is starting and not Taysom Hill, I like Kamara even more than I did back on Tuesday when I opened up the Watch List. Siemian is not a good quarterback, but he can chuck it downfield better than Hill which means the Falcons defense can't completely sell out to stop the run. Not only does Atlanta give up just over 125 rushing yards per game, but they also rank 19th in DVOA against running back pass plays. The Saints added Mark Ingram to help take some of the weight off Kamara, but he [Kamara] is still the more dynamic player and will be the one they give the ball to the most. And even if Atlanta does try stack the box, you can still expect a big day here.  

As I said in the Hebert section, I'm not buying this Eagles team following a big game against the Lions. If anything, you should hate Detroit more. The Eagles rank 22nd in DVOA against the run and are allowing 123.5 rushing yards per game along with nine rushing touchdowns this season. They're also allowing just over 52 receiving yards per game to running back pass-plays, so expect the Chargers to go with a heavy lean on Ekeler this week. Even in a game they lost to the Patriots, Ekeler still managed 124 all-purpose yards and found his way into the end zone, so fire him up if you can afford the price tag.

Expect Jones to be pretty chalky this week, even if he is losing touches to AJ Dillon in recent weeks. The Chiefs are giving up almost 122 rushing yards per game and have allowed 10 rushing touchdowns so far this season. But the key here is Jones' role in the passing game. He's seen strong targets in recent weeks, including 11 last week, and we can probably expect Jordan Love to check-down a lot more than Aaron Rodgers ever did. Keep a watchful eye on our Draft Percentage Forecaster this week as I expect the Green Bay running game to be very popular. If you see people paying up for Jones, you can use him in cash games, but if you see more people on AJ Dillon, you can pivot Jones over to your GPP lineups. That being said, I think Dillon plays in a very similar fashion. If Jones is more popular, use him in cash and feature Dillon in some of your GPP lineups to go against the grain. Both have the potential to eat this week. 

The deeper the dive I've taken into the match-ups, the more I like Zeke this week. Shhhhh! Don't tell Jim Bowden. I'll never hear the end of it. But while the Broncos are allowing just 100.9 rushing yards per game with only six rushing touchdowns allowed, they rank 27th in DVOA against the run which means a running back of Zeke's talent level can crush their souls on the field. He ranks sixth in carries, sixth in touches, fifth in rushing yards, fifth in rushing touchdowns and 10th in fantasy points at the running back position. In similar fashion to the Green Bay situation, Tony Pollard is a guy you may also be able to look at for GPP tournaments, depending on Zeke's ownership level. However, that's only in GPPS for me as Pollard isn't the same as Dillon in the sense that he could supplant the guy in front of him. But should the Cowboys bust this game open, Pollard should see some strong second-half touches.

I'm sure many of you think I'm crazy for putting Chubb into the Playbook this week, especially as a potential cash game option, but I'm a big believer in Kevin Stefanski wising up and understanding that the Browns are run-first and they should be riding Chubb like a friggin pony. We've seen Stefanski stray before and when he comes back to our man, it is usually explosive. The Bengals are giving up just 94.4 rushing yards per game this season but they've allowed seven rushing touchdowns which is about middle-of-the-road in the NFL. Last week they gave up 92 and a touchdowns to Michael Carter/Ty Johnson, and there's no concern whatsoever that Chubb can do that and more on his own. This play might take a slight leap of faith, but I can tell you with good conscience that I will be using him everywhere this week. Last season, he ripped the Bengals for 124 yards and two touchdowns the one time he faced them. I think he does something similar this week.

It doesn't sound as if Saquon Barkley is going to be active for this game which gives us a fantastic pay-down at the running back position here. The Raiders are giving up 131.3 rushing yards per game and have coughed up eight rushing touchdowns on the year. Booker has also been a strong pass-catcher which should help him shine brighter as Las Vegas ranks 20th in DVOA against running back pass-plays. If you're paying up at QB and one of your RB spots, you're going to need a solid complement at a much lower price and with no Barkley, Booker gets all the touches.

As I said in the Watch List, this is a tough one, because Gaskin has become that guy who, if you start him, he vanishes and if you leave him out, he finds a way to excel. This match-up against the Texans is a soft one and one in which he should perform well, if he's given the ball enough. Houston has allowed a league-high 14 rushing touchdowns this season and they're giving up 148.1 rushing yards per game. He just needs some volume to perform, something we have seen him get in recent weeks. Just give the guy 15 touches and he'll easily earn his price.

Adams is way to expensive to use in cash games, but I would be willing to use him in GPP tournaments if I am pairing him up with Jordan Love. The QB price tag is crazy low, so the impact of Adams' cost is much less significant. The Chiefs rank 28th in DVOA against the opposing No. 1 wideout, giving up 81 receiving yards per game to them, so Love just needs to get the ball into his hands and let his receiver do the rest. And if you need some reassurance as to how this can and should work in a GPP, go back and re-read the section on Love up above.

With Jaire Alexander on IR, the Packers have been struggling in coverage in a major ay. They don't have anyone with the speed to keep pace with Hill and probably aren't going to have much success bracketing him, knowing Travis Kelce is all over the field and Mecole Hardman is starting to blossom. He's coming off a big game against the Giants, has two touchdowns in his last three games and will be looking to continue with that momentum this week. The only thing that may hold us back on Hill is the price tag. With the likelihood of paying up at QB and RB, it might be tough to fit someone of Hill's price range into our builds.

Another tough one here, as Samuel is still dealing with a calf issue and while he was able to put in a limited practice, both he and Kyle Shanahan have told the media that his calf is actually worse now than it was last week when he put up 171 yards on six catches against the Bears. My inclusion of him here comes for two reasons – 1. Shanahan is a liar. We've heard so much bullsh*t out of his mouth and we've heard reporters say he has told them to not write certain things so the opposing team is more in the dark. 2. we're just going to be looking at him for GPP tournaments and any time a guy has a questionable tag, the ownership is always much lower. If we hear better news on him Saturday night or Sunday morning, we may be able to use him in cash games. If things go the other way, we should be able to use a much-cheaper Brandon Aiyuk.

The price continues to climb and I'm sure at some point we are going to have a lot more trouble fitting Chase into our lineups, but if you were thinking about using someone like Deebo Samuel or Tyreek Hill in your lineups, then check the ownership percentage and see if a pivot down to Chase works better for you. Your impending offensive rookie of the year continues to perform as a top receiver and should probably remain a fixture in your lineups, at least until the DFS sites start pricing him at the elite level. Though he didn't have an explosive game against the Jets, he still managed to find his way into the end zone for the seventh time this season. The Browns secondary has had its issues all season long and they're allowing the third-most receiving touchdowns in the league (17). Chase remains a strong play week after week.  

While the Eagles aren't giving up a whole lot of yards through the air, their DVOA rankings against individual receivers is juts not strong. Maybe it's because they've allowed 14 touchdowns through the air this season? Probably. Allen is coming off another strong game against the Patriots where he saw double-digit targets for the fourth time this season and found his way into the end zone for the first time in four games. Philadelphia doesn't handle the slot receiver all that well, as evidenced by the ranking of 23rd in DVOA against the slot, which also lines up nicely for another strong effort from Allen.

The return of Tyrod Taylor is obviously encouraging, but you can bet Davis Mills would have been able to find Cooks downfield against a pass defense that is allowing the second-most yards through the air per game (291.1) and has coughed up 17 passing touchdowns already this season. The use of Cooks here is based on volume as he leads the team in targets, receptions and receiving yards and while Mills was the QB for most of it, Cooks is really the only receiver worth his salt on this roster. I'm sure Taylor would have come to the same conclusion had he been healthy all season, so consider this his starting point and the potential for some strong upside here.

You've got to love this match-up against a soft Vikings secondary for Brown's first game off the bye. Yes, the Vikings rank third in DVOA against the pass, but I'm not buying it as a defensive unit that isn't going to get beat deep by the Ravens. Brown has six touchdowns in seven games, three double-digit target weeks and two 100-yard performances this season. He continuously gets open downfield and Lamar Jackson routinely hits him for a long score. Expect more of the same this week.

Some of you may be wondering why Sanders is in the Playbook and Stefon Diggs is not. Simple – it's all about cost. If you want to pay up at the receiver position or want to stack Bills this week, you can certainly use Diggs. This match-up against the Jags is uber-tasty and he should do well. But with us looking to pay up at QB and RB, Sanders fits the build in much better fashion and his match-up is also fantastic. In fact, the Jaguars rank 31st in DVOA against the opposition's No. 2 receiver and are allowing an average of 76.6 receiving yards per game to them. Sanders was held without a catch last week by Miami which should also help keep his ownership down and you know how much we like that.

We've seen Tua lean on his old college teammate before and this match-up against the Texans could put the two in the limelight once again, especially now that DeVante Parker has officially been ruled out for this week. Houston ranks 28th in DVOA against the opposition's WR2 and are allowing almost 60 yards per game to them. Waddle is definitely more of a possession receiver and those short, quick timing routes should afford him a ton of opportunities against a suspect defense, but don't be surprised if we see him and Tua connect on a few deep chances as well.

LATE ADD – With ownership looking potentially high, we feel confident enough in this Bengals offense to add Higgins to the Playbook, especially for cash game play. He's also an obvious choice if you're looking to stack Bengals in a GPP contest. Higgins usually sees around six or seven targets per game, but when defenses are keying in on Ja'Marr Chase, we've seen him reach double-digits which typically produces strong results. Should Denzel Ward focus heavily on Chase and receive safety help, that will put Higgins into more one-on-one situations and allow him to succeed.

With Sterling Shepard and John Ross out and Toney walking into this week without an injury designation, I really like this match-up. If Kenny Golladay is out, I LOVE this match-up. But in truth, even if Golladay plays, Toney should excel as he works primarily out of the slot. The Raiders have a serious issue against slot receivers, as evidenced by their ranking of 26th in DVOA against them, allowing an average of nearly 74 receiving yards per game. Toney saw tremendous volume when he was on the field and should return to a similar target share this week. Also keep in mind, that even if Golladay plays, he'll likely see a lot of Casey Hayward in coverage, so that puts me on Toney even more.

It should be interesting to see how the Raiders perform in the wake of the Henry Ruggs incident, but what we do know is that Renfrow is likely to remain the most-targeted receiver behind tight end Darren Waller. He's averaging just over seven targets per game and has a plus match-up against Giants slot-corner Darnay Holmes. Renfrow serves as a solid pay-down and can be used as such in cash games because he is often the guy most relied upon when the Raiders need to move the chains on third down. What we'd like to see more of is targets inside the red zone as he only has two touchdowns on the year. But he did see two red zone targets in his last game, so hopefully this is an area he and Derek Carr are looking to improve. 

I'll throw another qualifier here and say that Moore can be used in cash games as a pay-down if DeAndre Hopkins is out. If Hopkins plays, we may want to just stick to GPP tournaments. But here's the thing – with the expectation that Kyler Murray sits (would Vegas have really flipped this line if he stood a greater chance of playing?), we can look at Colt McCoy and his yards per attempt average which sits just over six for his career. That means we can expect a lot of short passes which will allow More to catch and run like we saw him do before A.J. Green got hot. Paying a few bucks more for Renfrow may be the move for cash games, but with no Murray, no Green and potentially no Hopkins, it could be the time for a re-emergence for Moore this week. Yes, even with Zach Ertz joining the team.

Things haven't been so good for Kelce lately which should keep ownership down. It's forced the DFS sites to drop his price tag too, which is certainly nice. But the Packers rank 25th in DVOA against the tight end position and are allowing an average of 55.3 yards per game to them. If there is a “get-right” situation coming for Kelce, this seems like the place to do it, especially with the game at Arrowhead Stadium. Kelce also needs a big showing after it looked like he gave up mid-game and got roasted by the media, so there's going to be a chip on his shoulder too.

The Giants are similar to the Packers in that they haven't allowed a ton of fantasy points to tight ends this year and they rank in the middle of the pack in DVOA against them. They did a good job shutting down Kelce last week, but they're going to have to play differently this week against the Raiders who have a stronger ground game and mix it up a lot more with which receiver could get targeted. It's very possible that ownership remains low this week given the Giants performance against Kansas City which only makes me want to jam Waller into more of my GPP lineups.

Here we go again – another top tight end in a less-than-stellar match-up on paper. The Vikings rank ninth in DVOA against the position and give up fewer fantasy points per game than both the Giants and the Packers. So why even list Andrews here? Well, it's the way Lamar Jackson uses him. Prior to the break, Andrews saw seven red zone targets over a four-game span and ended up with three touchdowns. Once the Ravens get inside the 20-yard line, Andrews becomes Jackson's first look and, as a result, always has multi-score potential. You can leave him as a GPP-only play for safety purposes, but I don't think he should be ignored because the Vikings pass defense has overachieved here in the first half of the season. Yeah, I said it….overachieved.

Now that you've read up on the Big-3 at tight end, you'll understand more when I say that this is probably my favorite tight end play of the week. After back-to-back strong efforts, Gesicki was held in check by Buffalo in Week 8. Things go back to semi-normal this week with a match-up against a super-weak Houston team that struggles to cover the tight end. In fact, the Texans allow the  eighth-most fantasy points to the position and are likely to give up some yards and a possible score against him this week.

The Chargers defense is allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to the tight end position and rank 30th in DVOA against them, allowing an average of 72.5 receiving yards per game. We'd like to see Nick Sirianni run the ball more, but if he's going to want to pass heavily, Goedert should be the one who becomes the primary beneficiary. 

On the other side of this Eagles/Chargers game, we've got Philly struggling against the tight end position as well. They rank 19th in DVOA, but are still allowing almost 60 yards per game to them and they give up the third-most fantasy points per game to them. Cook was quiet in this past week's match-up against the Patriots, but had two touchdowns in the three weeks prior to the bye.

The Ravens continue to bleed points to the tight end position each week and, even after the bye, still give up the most fantasy points per game to the position. They rank 22nd in DVOA and are allowing almost 80 yards per game to them. Conklin has seen at least five targets in four of his last five games and while he's only gotten into the end zone once, still remains as a decent, inexpensive option.

We're still not sure whether it will be Sam Darnold or P.J. Walker under center for the Panthers, but either way, Bill Belichick is going to create a masterful plan to shut down this Panthers offense. If Christian McCaffrey returns, it might make the Patriots' job a little tougher, but they're still going to be a worthwhile defense to use if you're paying up. With 13 takeaways on the season matched up against the Panthers' 12 giveaways, we should see some nice turnover points here.

The Bills have 18 takeaways on the season which led the league before the Colts played on Thursday, so, in essence, the Bills do have the highest number for the number of games played. Jacksonville, on the other hand, have 13 giveaways and could be without their starting running back which might force them into a more pass-heavy game plan. They'll also likely be playing from behind, so those NFL-leading 11 interceptions the Bills have could grow. Maybe we even get a pick-six.

The Saints do a great job in the turnover battle with 13 takeaways, but their defense also ranks second in DVOA against the run and fifth against the pass. The Falcons have 10 giveaways on the season and with no Calvin Ridley, could be forced into using Cordarrelle Patterson more as a receiver than a running back. If that's the case, the Saints won't have much trouble with Mike Davis and can focus on shutting down Patterson and Kyle Pitts. That, in turn, should help keep the score down.

I talked about using the Dallas defense on Friday's Fantasy Alarm Show on SiriusXM and here I am putting my money where my mouth is. The Broncos offense is completely unimaginative and they've scored more than 20 points just once in their last five games. And when it comes to the turnover battle, Dallas is third with 14 takeaways while the Broncos have coughed the ball up 10 times this season. With the game in Dallas too, you should get some serious bang for your buck.

Here is your yummy-delish pay-down at defense and probably where we'll live most of the time if Kyler Murray is declared out. The Vegas line has already flipped from the Cardinals being a 1.5-point favorite to a 2.5-point underdog and the gap will continue to widen if Murray is officially out. Regardless of DeAndre Hopkins' status, if Colt McCoy is under center, the 49ers defense is probably the biggest no-brainer on the slate. You'll get turnovers galore as well as a low-scoring effort from Arizona.