NFL DFS Playbook: Thanksgiving Day

If you can't run on the Saints, and I don't think the Bills have the horses to do so, then you're going to have to beat them through the air. That keeps Allen on my Thanksgiving radar, even at this price. The Saints rank 14th in DVOA against the pass and they're allowing an average of 252.2 passing yards per game. They've only allowed 13 touchdowns through the air and opposing QBs only have a 85.5 passer rating, but outside of Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers, they haven't really faced anyone of Allen's caliber and both of those guys bested the Saints relatively easily. Allen has the weapons and he can extend plays with his legs, so if you're paying up here, he's definitely a strong option.

It's deja vu all over again for Prescott and the Cowboys as they need another get-right game following a loss in which they looked absolutely horrible. What was worse – their loss to Denver or this loss to the Chiefs? And how much of a rebound are we looking at given that it's Las Vegas and not Atlanta they are facing? You'd like to see CeeDee Lamb (concussion) return, but it's not imperative. Prescott can still find plenty of success without Lamb or Amari Cooper, especially against a pass defense that ranks 22nd in DVOA, has allowed 18 receiving touchdowns and  allows a 96.2 passer rating to opposing QBs. If Lamb does play, it's just a nice bonus for those using Dak on Thanksgiving.

Yes, Dalton looked just fine against the Ravens, but that was midway through the game where the defense was scheming against a mobile QB rather than a slow-footed pocket-passer like Dalton. Still, the Lions defense is pretty bad, giving up almost 240 passing yards per game with 17 passing touchdowns allowed. Keep in mind, also, the Lions haven't exactly faced the cream of the quarterback crop recently (Baker Mayfield, Mason Rudolph and Jalen Hurts over the last three), so their numbers are a little skewed. We'll see what happens for what could potentially be Matt Nagy's final game as the Bears head coach, but if we're looking for a somewhat cheap target for DFS, he might be worth using on a short slate.

Call me crazy, but when building GPP lineups and looking at the spreads for the Thanksgiving day games, I don't hate the Lions so much here and would give serious consideration to Goff if he plays. Right now, they say he's 50/50. If he plays, I'm using him. If he's out and the Lions turn to David Blough, I'm using him. If it's Tim Boyle, then I'm out and I'm likely paying up for either Allen or Prescott. The Bears rank 15th in DVOA against the pass, but are now without Khalil Mack and Danny Trevathan and may also be without Akiem Hicks and Eddie Jackson. The Lions will feature the run, of course, but that could very well open up this passing game and the Bears pass coverage isn't very good. UPDATED: NFL Insider Ian Rapoport is reporting that the Lions are planning to start Goff on Thursday. Not sure if that's anything new for us, but we're still going to go deep dive here with Goff. It's just ugly enough to work.

If Alvin Kamara is out and Mark Ingram is the lead, I am still very much interested in Jones as a running back pay-down. He's a small, shifty pass-catcher out of the backfield and could be an interesting pivot, especially if the Saints are playing from behind and Trevor Siemian needs to check it down a bunch. UPDATED: No Kamara and Ingram left practice after minimal participation. Even if Ingram is active, Jones becomes an intriguing low-cost play. The Bills defense is likely to be fired up which will make it tougher, but if the Saints fall behind, Jones could end up getting a ton of check-downs as the third-down, pass-catching back. ANOTHER UPDATE: We still don't have clarity on Mark Ingram's status so if you're building lineups for the day, he's not someone I feel like I can trust. If you want to try him as a contrarian play (if he's even in) then go for it, but I've pulled him from the Playbook. With that, I've grown slightly more bullish on Jones as a flex play to differentiate yourself from the masses. He should catch some passes out of the backfield which will raise his value, but you shouldn't expect any sort of a world-beating performance.

Elliott was listed as a full-participant at Tuesday's practice and doesn't appear to have any sort of injury designation heading into Thursday's game. We'll see what the practice report from Wednesday says before finalizing, but considering how much a run-funnel this Raiders defense is, we just might be obligated to use Zeke in this match-up. He's left the last two games with knee issues so there is obvious risk. If you're not playing too expensive of a contest, you may want to think about a hedge lineup using Pollard instead. But again, the last thing you want is to watch Zeke rush for 100 yards and two touchdowns while you're sitting there with no shares. 

No matter how many times I think Swift is going to crap out, that late touchdown run always seems to happen. Maybe defenses are taking their foot off the gas, but we saw it against Cleveland last week as Swift rumbled down the field for a 57-yard touchdown run that salvaged what would have been a pretty pedestrian day. If head coach Dan Campbell is just going to keep giving him the volume regardless of score or game flow, you have to assume he's going to have some pretty good games. The Bears are without Khalil Mack and Akeem Hicks, so their run defense is even softer than the one that has allowed 122.8 rushing yards per game and 10 touchdowns on the season.

And right back atcha, Detroit! Perhaps with Andy Dalton under center, Matt Nagy opts to let Montgomery take over a game and expose the Lions defense for what it is. What is it? It's garbage. That's what it is. Detroit's defense ranks 29th in DVOA against the run, it's allowing 140.5 rushing yards per game and it's given up 11 rushing touchdowns on the season. Montgomery has been eased back into action with 13 carries in his first game back and 14 in last week's. If he can get even a touch more volume, he should be a great DFS play.

This is obviously going to depend on the status of Ezekiel Elliott who, again, tweaked his knee during the game last week. Even if Zeke plays, with the short turnaround this week, chances are Pollard plays a fair number of snaps and posts some strong totals. He was the leading rusher against the Chiefs last week and now he's facing a Raiders team that was decimated by Joe Mixon last week. We'll track the health of Zeke over the next day or so and see, but keep Pollard very much on your DFS radar this week. 

LATE ADD: With the removal of Mark Ingram from the Playbook, I felt the need to present you with another option. I don't love Breida and the sudden infatuation with him but the Bills coaches leaves me scratching my head a bit, but no one on the team seems to be enamored with Zack Moss or Devin Singletary. If he really has earned himself additional touches and the Bills opt to use him, he may be a very interesting way to differentiate yourself from the masses. Hard to tell who is on Breida and who isn't, but if the public didn't see the comments regarding his potential increase in touches, then he could prove to be a great flex play.

Diggs has been on quite the tear recently with three touchdowns in his last two games and five touchdowns in his last five. He'll have a battle on his hands as we expect the Saints to have Marshon Lattimore on him most of the time, but as Colby Conway pointed out in last week's WR Coach Lattimore has given up the most receiving yards over the last five games now and the second-most yards after the catch allowed. Allen and Diggs have that on-field rapport you love to invest in, so stack them up if you can.

If CeeDee Lamb is out, then Gallup steps up again as the team's No. 1 target. His target share spiked last week when Lamb was out and he will be a chalk play for most. I'm in on him if Lamb sits. If he plays, it's a different story for me. What concerns me is that, of his 10 targets last week, only two came inside the red zone. If he's just a chain-mover, I'm ready to look elsewhere, so depending on the news, you may actually see me bounce Gallup from the Playbook, especially because we're talking GPP only. UPDATE: Leaving him in since we won't know about Lamb likely until closer to game-time. I like him for usage but I'm not loving him for big-play upside. He'll also be pretty chalky, so keep that in mind. UPDATE: CeeDee Lamb is out. Gallup is worth playing.

Talking about Michael Gallup or CeeDee Lamb (if he plays) is easy and both will warrant strong consideration  for your lineups. But if Lamb is out or even limited, Wilson becomes a very interesting option because of the pay-down. Yes, he had a few dropped passes in the loss to the Chiefs, but prior to that, he was incredibly reliable. If the Cowboys regulars aren't able to go, Wilson becomes a fantastic option for cheap and that will enable you to get in some bigger players. UDPATE: I'm actually a little more bullish on Wilson as a way to differentiate yourself today. He's got big-play upside whether Lamb plays or not, so you can feel good about using him and having this as your slice of the Cowboys offense. UPDATE: CeeDee Lamb is out. I love Wilson today and you may even want to look at Noah Brown if you want to get a little weird.

Mooney had an outstanding game last week, breaking out for 121 yards on five catches. Granted, he had 16 targets, but Andy Dalton came in midway through the game, so everyone was making adjustments. Even if Allen Robinson were to play (it doesn't look like he will), Mooney has still taken over as the team's No. 1 receiver and he will continue to see the workload as such. The Lions rank 18th against the other team's top receiver and they're allowing an average of 72.6 yards per game to them. Whether you're playing a showdown slate or all three games, Mooney definitely warrants strong consideration.

If you're attacking the Dallas secondary, then Renfrow is your guy as he works primarily out of the slot which is probably the Cowboys' biggest weakness. The target share has spiked since the bye week and hile last week was a bust for him and those who used him, it has to be encouraging to see the increase in red zone targets for him, something that was always a hang-up. Guys who move the chains are are great, but if they don't see the red zone looks, then they are just…well…Jakobi Meyers. Renfrow has now seen seven red zone targets over his last four games and has two touchdowns in that span to show for it. 

Most people will go to Darren Waller or Hunter Renfrow for their slice of the Raiders, but don't sleep on Edwards who was starting to see an increase in targets prior to last week's total shutout. People won't look to him so much because he'll see a fair amount of Trevon Diggs early on, but if the Cowboys are getting burned by Renfrow and/or Waller, you can bet Diggs will be moved around more . If that frees up Edwards a little more, then he just might be able to be productive with the handful of targets he sees. He's a deep dive for GPP tournaments, but when your opponents are zigging, you've got to zag.

Without much fanfare, the target share for Smith has increased steadily and he now seems to be Trevor Siemian's top target, especially with tight end Adam Trautman now out. Since returning from injury after the Saints bye, SMith has seen his targets rise from three or four to now seven or eight. He's also seeing more red zone work and that has resulted in two touchdowns over his last four games. If the Saints are playing from behind or if their ground game isn't working, expect a heavy workload for Smith.

The battle between Stefon Diggs and Marshon Lattimore will be a fun one to watch, but if you're looking for a potential pay-down while still getting a piece of Josh Allen and the Bills, then Beasley could be your guy. The Saints slot coverage has always been horrendous and whether it's P.J. Williams or Bradley Roby in coverage, Beasley should be able to shake coverage and find his way to a decent catch total and maybe even do a little end zone dancing as well. Saints rank dead-last in DVOA against the slot, so take advantage while you can. 

So the Lions go out and sign Josh Reynolds last week and he ends up playing about 90-percent of the snaps during the game against Cleveland. If you found it odd, so did we. A lack of faith in the rest of the receiving corps or is Reynolds genuinely better than what they have. But the twist here is that now we are hearing Jared Goff is likely to play and as many of you know, Reynolds and Goff have a relationship dating back to their time together in Los Angeles. Reynolds was Van Jefferson before there was a Van Jefferson in the NFL. The Rams utilized him both on the outside and in the slot, making him a versatile asset that would keep the defense from knowing exactly what the play was based on the personnel on the field. He's never been a game-breaking receiver, but against a horrible Bears secondary, Reynolds could end up the guy winning you a GPP tournament.

How do you not look at a top-three tight end who sees fantastic volume and is facing a team that ranks 24th in DVOA against the tight end position? Teams had been focusing more heavily on guarding Waller, but with the emergence of Bryan Edwards and the talented play of Hunter Renfrow, they now have to stay honest here and spread the coverage around. That works just fine for us!

Let's look past the blip that was Week 10 for Hockenson and focus more on the surrounding games where he saw 39 targets in four games, including eight last week against the Browns. You can also forget about the fact that the Bears rank fourth in DVOA against the tight end, because, as stated up above, they're without Mack and Trevathan and could also be without free safety Eddie Jackson. If you're looking to get dirty here with a Lions stack, the primary will be Goff-Swift-Hockenson. If you want to get even crazier, that's when I might add in Reynolds too. 

I genuinely thought C.J. Uzomah was going to shred this Raiders defense, but alas he was held to some pretty bad totals. Can the Raiders defense which ranks 29th in DVOA get away with another one this week? If Lamb and Cooper are out, or even if just Cooper, Schultz should see an increase in targets and expose a defense that has allowed the third-highest fantasy points per game so far.

The Saints have done a good job against the tight end this season so there's some risk with regard to using Knox. But earlier in the season, he was a go-to guy for Allen inside the red zone, as evidenced by his five touchdowns in a four-game span. But he's got his quarterback's attention again after missing a few weeks with a hand injury and Allen targeted him 10 times last week, including twice inside the 10-yard line. When the Bills get into the red zone, look for Knox to see his usual workload and enjoy the benefits.

This is the obvious play for so many as they love to hate on Jared Goff and/or Tim Boyle. True, Boyle was a disaster, but right now we're hearing that Goff is 50/50 so be wary of the fact that the Bears defense is not 100% healthy and there is always the chance David Blough gets the nod should Goff not play. That all being said, the Lions have 13 giveaways on the season and while the Bears haven't been huge with forcing turnovers, they can be opportunistic when they need to be. If you believe the Lions will remain winless after Thursday, then the Bears are likely where you want to be.

This may be the chalk defense of the slate, especially if Kamara is out and/or Ingram is limited. Trevor Siemian isn't exactly the savior of the the Big Easy and last week, the wheels fell off the wagon as he threw for just 214 yards and two interceptions. Yes, he threw for three touchdowns, but they were in garbage time when the Eagles took their foot off the gas. The Bills have forced the second-most turnovers this season with 15 interceptions and nine fumble recoveries, so if the Saints B-squad is in full-effect, you'll want Buffalo as your defense.

The Cowboys have forced the fourth-most turnovers this season and they've got  a serious ball-hawk in Trevon Diggs floating around in the secondary. The Raiders have 12 giveaways on the season and Carr has now thrown five interceptions in his last four games. If this Raiders team is truly spiraling out of control having lost their head coach and a wide receiver who was well-liked in the locker room, then we're going to want to start attacking against them which puts the Dallas defense on our radar.

Yes, I am crazily bullish on the Lions here on Thanksgiving. I'm not 100-percent sure why. Maybe it's more that I think the Bears are bad, they're hurt and there's a lot going on with them regarding the rumors that Matt Nagy is being fired. The Lions, for the most part, have played teams close throughout the season and have 12 takeaways on the year. The Bears, now being quarterbacked again by Andy Dalton, have turned the ball over 14 times, so the Lions could end up with a momentum-changing defensive play. I mean, let's not forget…this is still Andy Dalton. Yes, he looked fine against the Ravens, but they had game-planned to face Fields and the two are very different types of QB. I'm going to have a pro-Lions stack going in one of my lineups and you can't stop me from doing it!