NFL DFS Playbook: Week 15

Now that he is free of any injury designation, Allen is definitely in play against a Panthers defense that doesn't necessarily give up a ton of yards through the air, but has allowed 18 passing touchdowns this season and opposing quarterbacks have posted a solid 92.3 passer rating against them. There's not much of a ground game working for Buffalo and Allen does like to poach some of the work at the goal-line, so if you're paying up, he should be able to provide you with a solid return on your investment. 

The Cardinals aren't going to survive the NFL playoffs if Murray plays like he did Monday against the Rams, so this is the perfect opportunity for him and the Cardinals to unleash the fury. The Lions are straight-up terrible, allowing an average of 244 passing yards per game with 22 touchdowns allowed through the air. Opposing quarterbacks have posted a 101.1 passer rating against Detroit, fifth-highest in the league and that doesn't even factor in Murray's rushing ability and likelihood of at least one rushing touchdown. He loses DeAndre Hopkins, but with the way he's spread the ball around all season, he's not dependent on him being on the field. More work for Christian Kirk and A.J. Green plus a splash of Rondale Moore will suffice among the receivers. This is the perfect rebound game for Murray and the team, so we'll take advantage of it in DFS this week.

The Ravens pass coverage was already struggling this season, but the loss of DB Marlon Humphrey has now pushed them closer to rock-bottom. Baltimore ranks 26th in DVOA against the pass and they've allowed 266.1 passing yards per game with 21 touchdowns on the year. The lingering toe issue doesn't appear to be too much of a problem right now, so you should feel comfortable using Rodgers in this match-up.

He's coming off a run of some serious mediocrity in three of his last four games and it's been a little disheartening for those who know just how explosive this offense can be. This is the Cowboys' third-straight road game, a stat people should know when betting as that team is only covering the spread 30-35-percent of the time. But that doesn't mean the Cowboys are going to lose. In fact, I think they've got the win here, but wouldn't be surprised by a back-door cover. But I digress. Let's look at it from a match-up standpoint and while the Giants may rank 10th in DVOA against the pass, they're giving up almost 245 passing yards per game with 23 touchdowns through the air. The Giants overall coverage scheme isn't all that great and with a banged-up, struggling rushing attack, this could be the rebound for Dak we need for our cash games. 

As I said in the DFS Watch List, there's really not much of a need for hardcore analysis. We can bank on the fact that the Jets are terrible, they have, more or less, given up on the season and are dead-last in DVOA against the pass. Usually teams just run all over the Jets, but everyone in the backfield is working themselves back from COVID, so expect Tua to pad his stats a little with a soft match-up. You can probably use him in cash, given the match-up, and if you're looking for a cheap stack, the Fins are a likely target.

I said in the Watch List that I really like Garoppolo in this match-up against the Falcons who rank 29th in DVOA against the pass and have coughed up a monster 26 passing touchdowns on the year, but I will LOVE this match-up if Elijah Mitchell is out. When Mitchell is out, we tend to see Jimmy G doing a little more passing work and while Deebo is likely going to be used out of the backfield again and won't see the targets we want, Garoppolo still has George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk upon which to lean. Despite the 9.5-point spread, I see the Falcons playing the Niners relatively closely in this game which should keep the passing game in full effect.

If you listened to this week's DFS Podcast, Jon Impemba makes some very nice points regarding this match-up for Mixon. Denver may not give up a ton of rushing yards each week and they've only given up seven rushing touchdowns, but they do rank 25th in DVOA against the run, they've allowed 107 rushing yards per game over their last three and  they rank 23rd in DVOA against running back pass-plays. Mixon doesn't have an injury designation coming into this game and with the volume he routinely sees, he should be able to post strong totals against the Broncos.

We'll continue to keep tabs on Conner heading into the game, but if he is playing, he's worth starting against the Lions. He may not see the volume we are used to seeing with Chase Edmonds back, but Conner still received the goal-line work earlier in the season when the two of them were sharing the backfield. The Lions are giving up 135.2 rushing yards per game and they've coughed up 15 rushing touchdowns on the year. Given the potential for a shared workload, you may want to avoid his price on FanDuel, but the cost is very reasonable on DK. UPDATE: With both Conner and Edmonds active, I'm a little less enthusiastic about both. I think they can be interesting GPP options, but I am likely to pivot off in cash as their level of play could hinge on the game flow. Both should see some work between the 20s but Conner is still the short-yardage/goal-line guy while Edmonds will serve as the change-of-pace back and likely candidate for more touches should this game turn into a blow-out.

If you believe the Cardinals are going to blow out the Lions, then you may want to consider pivoting off Conner and onto Edmonds as he will likely be the guy who helps chew up the clock in the second half of the game. Conner, in my opinion, is still very much the lead back, but should the team limit him (remember, they shut down DeAndre Hopkins this week, too), Edmonds will be the guy to pick up  ton of work. UPDATE: With both Conner and Edmonds active, I'm a little less enthusiastic about both. I think they can be interesting GPP options, but I am likely to pivot off in cash as their level of play could hinge on the game flow. Both should see some work between the 20s but Conner is still the short-yardage/goal-line guy while Edmonds will serve as the change-of-pace back and likely candidate for more touches should this game turn into a blow-out.

I won't trust him in cash games this week, but would it surprise anyone to see Zeke rack up 50 yards and a touchdown or two? Probably not. We're still waiting to hear official word on Tony Pollard, but even if he does come back, we're talking about a torn plantar fascia, so he's definitely not getting his full workload. The Giants run defense is soft and has allowed 10 rushing touchdowns this season, so if the Cowboys get into the green zone, expect to see them throw Zeke in there for a quick TD…or two.

LATE ADD – I've been debating Patterson for the past two days simply because of the San Francisco run defense, however, the light bulb went on finally as I realized that he's still going to see the touches no matter if the run defense is strong or even if the game flow steers the Falcons away from the ground game. Patterson is still, and always will be, an integral part of this offense and someone upon who Matt Ryan leans. We've seen games against the Saints and Bucs, two notoriously strong run defenses, and Patterson has seen his carries shift to targets in those games, so we should probably expect the same here. He comes in at a solid price too, so getting him into your lineups should make the overall construction easier.

Gaskin has been activated from the reserve/COVID list, so he is going to be on the field for this week against the Jets who are allowing 138.8 rushing yards per game and have coughed up a league-high 24 rushing touchdowns this season. Gaskin doesn't see a ton of volume, but he's got four touchdowns in his last five game. Similar to Zeke but for different reasons, Gaskin won't land you more than 60 rushing yards, but with so much upside possibility against the Jets, it might be tough not to roster him.

No Urban Meyer is likely all you need to know here, but we can throw down a little extra analysis if it makes you feel more comfortable. The Texans rank 28th in DVOA against the run, they are allowing a league-worst 147.9 rushing yards per game and they've given up 22 rushing touchdowns on the year. With Darren Bevell serving as interim head coach, you can expect a very strong and sustained ground game this week which makes Robinson my absolute favorite running back this week. As if you couldn't tell by the cover.

No one is saying that Foreman is anything close to Dalvin Cook, but did you see the holes open up against this Steelers defense? They looked atrocious. Now, I certainly don't expect the Titans offensive line to do the same job or for Foreman to rush for over 200 yards, but with the way this Steelers run defense has played, he should still be able to post a strong stat line for DFS owners. And this price tag is certainly going to help us get a number of other top players into our lineups.

Adams is coming off three-straight 100-yard efforts with four touchdowns in that span. With Marlon Humphrey injured and Chuck Clark out with COVID, this Ravens secondary is going to have a very difficult time containing the best wide receiver in the game, so whatever you have to do to get him into your lineups, do it.

No matter what the Steelers do, win or lose, Johnson always seems to get his. He's seen double-digit targets in all but two games this season, he's got two 100-yard efforts and three touchdowns in his last four games and he'll see a lot of Buster Skrine and Kristian Fulton in coverage, two very beatable corners for someone of Johnson's talent level. The target share locks him in for cash games and he's still got the upside for GPP tournaments in this match-up.

It can be difficult to navigate which Cowboys receiver is going to see the most work each week, but with Lamb lining up all over the field and the Giants losing so much of their secondary to COVID, we'll happily pay up for the talent. In three career games against the Giants, including a 4-84-1 stat line back in Week 5, Lamb has 17 catches for 251 yards and three touchdowns on 24 targets. He should earn his price tag this week.

With Elijah Mitchell out this week, I am going to turn my attention to Aiyuk as the dominant receiver for the 49ers. When Deebo Samuel is needed out of the backfield, his target share drops significantly and Aiyuk picks up the slack in a major way. Hence the seven targets per game average over the 49ers last six games. The Falcons rank 29th in DVOA against the pass and rank 29th and 32nd respectively against the oppositions first and second receivers. Look for Aiyuk to continue his stretch of strong efforts and see if he can't build off last week's 6-62-1 stat line with the game-winning overtime catch.

The Jaguars rank 31st in DVOA against the pass and have allowed just under 242 receiving yards per game. They have allowed 17 passing touchdowns this season ad opposing quarterbacks have a 101.6 passer rating against them, so look for Cooks, the only legitimate weapon the Texans have, to torment the Jacksonville secondary in this one. Davis Mils will be under center, so expect him to lean heavily on Cooks this Sunday.

As good as the 49ers defense can be, the fact that they rank 28th in DVOA against the opposition's No. 1 receiver should not be lost. Gage has averaged roughly eight targets per game over the Falcons' last four and has one 100-yard effort and one touchdown in that span where he has clearly taken over the top job in this offense. If this 9.5-point spread is for real, then Atlanta is going to be throwing heavily which helps Gage and if the Falcons play them tighter, then it is likely because the Falcons offense is cooking.

With no DeAndre Hopkins, Kirk should slide in as the team's X-receiver while A.J. Green stays on as the Z-receiver and maintains his usual role. Both are actually in play and I wouldn't begrudge a Murray-Green-Kirk stack at all, but I'll stay with Kirk who seems to have a little more big-play upside. Green has been solid and I don't want to take anything away from his efforts this season, but Kirk is also likely to see a lot more of Will Harris in coverage and that gives him a very strong advantage this week.

With Jaylen Waddle hitting the reserve/COVID list, we just got ourselves a fantastic bargain receiver as the Jets rank dead-last in DVOA against the pass and are allowing 254 passing yards per game with 21 passing touchdowns allowed on the season. Parker will dominate in targets in this game as he and Mike Gesicki are likely to two best options Tua will have. Expect him to be super-chalky again this week as this match-up is too good to pass up. 

Not that Emmanuel Sanders has been doing much lately, but now that he's out of the picture with a knee issue, Davis will command the start and should be seeing a strong number of targets this week. Last week he actually saw a season-high eight targets which he turned into five catches for 43 yards and a touchdown and he's now scored in back-to-back games. As I said with Josh Allen above, the Panthers may not give up a lot of yards through the air, but they've given up 17 touchdowns via the pass and Davis has now seen six red-zone targets in the last two games. Get him in there and save some salary.

I'll admit that I've never been a big fan of Treadwell, but regardless of Urban Meyer, he has built up an on-field rapport with Trevor Lawrence which has netted him an 85-percent snap share and 19 targets over the last three weeks. He hasn't found the end zone yet, but the Texans rank 28th in DVOA against the opposition's No. 2 wideout and Treadwell has a favorable match-up against Lonnie Johnson who will get the start with Terrance Mitchell out with COVID. He's probably more of a GPP play, but if you're somehow not using James Robinson in cash and need a pay-down at receiver, he should be in-play.

The Falcons may not give up a ton of fantasy points to the tight end each week, but they do rank 19th in DVOA against the position and Kittle is clearly not your ordinary tight end.  We've watched Garoppolo open up the passing game downfield with Kittle and this guys dominates over the middle and down the sidelines. With no Kelce on the main slate and Darren Waller likely to be out again, Kittle stands alone as the must-have, gotta-pay-up tight end for the week.

The Packers are another team that hasn't allowed a ton of fantasy points to the tight end, but they do rank 23rd in DVOA against the position and this Ravens passing attack continues to focus on Andrews. Whether it's Lamar Jackson or Tyler Huntley, Andrews will be a heavily-targets pass-catcher in this one and Green Bay is going to struggle over the middle to keep him covered. 

While the 49ers rank second in DVOA against the tight end, they rank 27th against the slot receiver which is where Pitts does a lot of his lining up. If you're looking for a contrarian play and aren't going to pay up for Kittle or Andrews, then Pitts could be an interesting add at very low ownership. He continues to see a strong target share each week and with the way the 49ers have been against the run all year, perhaps this is the game Pitts comes out strong and finds his second touchdown of the season.

The Jets rank dead-last in DVOA against the tight end and they are allowing the seventh-most fantasy points per game to the position. Gesicki doesn't need the same 11 targets he saw last week, but we can sure hope he sees them. What we do want maintained is the red zone target share. He's seen five red zone targets in the last four games and should be able to score against a subpar defense here. 

If Noah Fant is so darn good, how come it's Okwuegbunam who consistently sees the red zone targets? Fant is good between the 20's but for whatever reason neither Bridgewater nor Lock look for him in the end zone. For such a dirt-cheap price against a defense that allows the eight-most fantasy points per game to the tight end, we are in on this guy in a major way.

Hard to believe we have this many Jaguars in the Playbook, but ditching Urban Meyer is addition by subtraction for this team. In actuality, though, Meyer is irrelevant here because O'Shaughnessy's match-up would have been favorable regardless. The Texans rank 29th in DVOA against the tight end position and they're allowing the 11th-most fantasy points per game to them. Since returning from injury, he's seen close to six targets per game and while he hasn't done a whole lot with them, this is going to be a much different situation against a much softer defense. 

If you're able to afford the Cardinals this week, then by all means, do it. They have 23 takeaways on the season and they have the fourth-most sacks in the league. Jared Goff and the Lions had their Super Bowl two weeks ago and promptly headed back to the bottom of the barrel last week. They ain't climbing out this week. 

Not only do the Dolphins have 20 takeaways on the season and routinely put up strong, defensive numbers, but they get the Jets who have the most giveaways this season with 25. Jets QB Zach Wilson has 11 interceptions to just six touchdown passes this season and the Dolphins pass-rush, which has 31 sacks on the year is going to be very unforgiving of any mistakes made.

Dallas has the second-most takeaways this season with 20 interceptions and seven fumble recoveries and now get to face Mike Glennon and possibly even Jake Fromme? Yes, please. With the way Micah Parsons and Trevon Diggs have looked this season along with the return of Randy Gregory and Demarcus Lawrence, this could be a very big game for the Cowboys.

Have you ever seen a team in more need of a bounce-back game than the Bills right now? Well, they get the Panthers who have coughed the ball up 23 times this season and the Bills, who are third in the league with 26 takeaways, will do everything in their power to show the hometown fans that they are still very much alive and are laser-focused on crushing the next four weeks of the regular season.

Have you looked at how many times Joe Burrow has been saved this season? The number is 41 with 11 of them coming in just the last two games. The Broncos have 30 sacks on the season and are favored in this game, so you have to look at their defense more than their offensive output for that. If the Bengals struggle in this one, Burrow is also good for at least one pick as well. The pay-down is very nice here, especially if you're trying to save salary on DK. 

LATE ADD – The more I think about it, the less likely I want to even think about using the Jaguars as a punt defense. I have the Broncos listed here as well, so it really depends on how you think this game goes, but both defenses are likely to be our punt options here. Cincinnati is second in the league in sacks while the Broncos have allowed the ninth-most sacks this season and they're middle-of-the-pack with 17 takeaways on the season.