NFL DFS Playbook: Week 16

Some might be surprised to see Herbert lead off the Playbook as he wasn't in the Watch List due to the fact that everyone just seems to run on Houston and leave it at that. But without Austin Ekeler and an understanding that Herbert is considered a top-3 quarterback against Cover-2 zones, we'll look to the young gunslinger to push his team ahead through the air. Again, you cannot be fearful of a match-up against the Texans because they rank 10th in DVOA against the pass. A team's ranking will improve when people aren't throwing against you as often. It's simple as that. But there's a reason they've given up 20 touchdowns through the air and Herbert is going to pad that total after Sunday.

The Vikings are routinely playing these close games regardless of how good or bad their opponent is, simply because their defense continues to cough up points. Prior to last week's game against the Bears, who couldn't seem to get our of their own way, Minnesota had given up and average of 29 points per game over their previous six. As a result, the Vikings are allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to the quarterback position and are going to have a very tough time containing Stafford and the arsenal of weapons at his disposal, especially with the groove he's in right now, averaging 282 passing yards with an 11:2 TD:INT over his last four games.

Clearly we've found a quarterback just as selfish as Cam Newton and DFS players are going to have to take advantage of it. Hurts came out of the Eagles' bye week on the hot seat and he delivered in style, throwing for almost 300 yards with a score while running in two more on his own. He did struggle against the Giants a few weeks ago, but he was also trying to play through an ankle injury at the time. If he has truly righted the ship, then he should be a strong play this week as his rushing ability (and selfishness at the goal line) keeps him in the discussion for cash games. 

I'm a huge fan of Russell Wilson but can understand people's hesitancy, especially after last week against the Rams. But it's the Rams and Aaron Donald, so I can give him a pass here. But to be clear, I'm only going to use him for GPP tournaments, not cash games. Yeah, I've got that voice in the back of my head too, so in perfect GPP fashion, I'll endure the risk. That's what GPPs are all about. But prior to the Rams game, Wilson had three-straight efforts with at least 230 passing yards and two touchdowns. I fully expect him to bounce back this week against the Bears who are allowing the seventh-most fantasy points per game to the quarterback position and continue to struggle with injuries and COVID cases on defense. Wilson should also have his top weapon, Tyler Lockett, back on the field for this match-up. 

The reason the Ravens keep going for two at the end of games is because John Harbaugh has zero faith in his depleted secondary and would rather take the shot at winning in the end than watching his defense crumble on the first possession in overtime and lose. The Ravens pass defense has dropped to 29th in DVOA, they're allowing almost 265 passing yards per game this season and have coughed up 24 touchdowns through the air. With the arsenal of receivers at his disposal, Burrow, who threw for over 400 yards with three touchdowns against the Ravens back in Week 7 when they had Marlon Humphrey still, should provide us with outstanding production this week.

LATE ADD – I wavered over adding Mattison to the Playbook, but after seeing the latest update to the Draft Percentage Forecaster and how much he is likely to be used today, he makes a lot of sense for cash lineups. He's the lead back and while yes, we may see Kene Nwangwu spell him a bit, it's not the same as what we could see in Los Angeles as Joshua Kelley could eat into some of Justin Jackson's touches. Therefore, for cash games, Mattison plays much better, especially on FanDuel where his price tag is so affordable. It would be surprising if he hung a 100 yards on the Rams, but if everyone is running in that same direction, he doesn't need to blow up. He just needs to have a decent day for you.

Another no-brainer match-up here as the Lions are allowing 133 rushing yards per game with 15 rushing touchdowns on the season and they rank dead-last in DVOA against running back pass-plays. While last week was a bust for Patterson, he's been one of the most productive players in the NFL this season and it came from virtually out of nowhere. If you told me back in August that Patterson would have over 1,000 yards from scrimmage and 10 touchdowns this season, I would have laughed my ass off. Now, I'm dying to get him into my DFS lineups. He'll be chalky for sure, this week and there won't be anything wrong with that.

The Raiders continue to be a run-funnel defense and they're allowing 123 rushing yards per game with 15 rushing touchdowns on the year. Nick Chubb rushed for 91 and a score against them last week and he should have gone over 100 and had a second touchdown if not for some bogus penalty and the week before that the Chiefs backfield gouged them for 132 yards and three touchdowns. So now you're giving me Williams against them this week? Yes, please! Melvin Gordon is likely in-play here as well, but we'll focus on Williams who just keeps getting better and better as the year progresses.

Getting rid of Urban Meyer was the best move the Jaguars made all season long and the best move for their backfield. Robinson carried the ball 18 times for 75 yards and a touchdown in the first game since the coach was fired and now we're getting an even tastier match-up here against the Jets, the only run defense worse than that of the Texans. The Jets are allowing 142 rushing yards per game with a league-high 26 rushing touchdowns allowed. He'll be super-chalky once again, but so long as he's getting the touches, we'll lock him into our cash game lineups. 

The Steelers run defense has been falling apart in recent weeks and they've given up 183.3 rushing yards per game over their last three which is 40 yards above their usual average. CEH wasn't utilized much in last week's shootout with the Chargers, but he had seen double-digit carries in the three games prior, had three touchdowns and even caught a few passes along the way. With both Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill likely out for this game, we expect Andy Reid to lean a little more heavily on his running backs this week, both with rushing and receiving. He's sitting at a very affordable price and while, the dreams of a 100-yard effort are probably more of a Christmas wish than a reality, he can still be productive getting into the end zone for us.  

We're looking at strong volume and a pretty sweet match-up as the Seahawks are allowing 116.5 rushing yards per game with 11 rushing touchdowns on the year and give up the second-most fantasy points to the running back position. Montgomery is averaging just over 16 carries per game this season and has averaged just over seven targets per game over his last three. With the Bears moving to Nick Foles under center this weekend, there could be an even heavier lean on Montgomery in the offensive game plan.

With Leonard Fournette out and Tom Brady's dislike of Ke'Shawn Vaughn, the bulk of the running back work is going to fall on RoJo this week. And he should see some strong volume in this one as well. Brady is without Mike Evans and Chris Godwin and while Antonio Brown makes his return, he will be covered by Stephon Gilmore most, if not all, of the time. Brady will always take matters into his own hands if he needs to, but we've seen him lean on the ground game and coast to a win before. That's what this one feels like as the Panthers are allowing almost 120 rushing yards over their last three games and they've given up 12 rushing touchdowns on the season. The bargain price is going to make this an even better play, especially because he'll be incredibly popular, and perhaps we even get him as a cash game free square.

OK, so maybe this one will be the cash game free square, amirite? With Austin Ekeler expected to miss this week's game after landing on the reserve/COVID list, Jackson will step in as the next man up in a smash-spot against Houston. As stated above in the Justin Herbert section, most teams tend to lean on the run against Houston, but we've got Herbert stepping out and establishing the Chargers lead in the first half. But that just means a heavy workload for Jackson in the second half as the Chargers look to chew up the clock and coast with a lead for the remainder of the game. Jackson looked good last week against the Chiefs and should be able to work his way into strong fantasy production for all of us this week. 

As I said in the Watch List, you don't really need me to break this down for you, do you? It's all a matter of what you can and can't afford in your lineups this week. If you listened to the DFS Podcast, you'll also hear a beautiful endorsement of Kupp from Jon Impemba who won't have a lineup active this week without him.

With news that Hill has cleared COVID protocols, we can get him back into our lineups if you are able to afford him. With the likelihood that Travis Kelce doesn't get cleared before Sunday's game, Hill will probably see some extra looks come his way. Obviously this is a solid match-up for him, so you should feel confident in using him.

This isn't going to be an easy game for Jefferson, but he will certainly have his opportunities against the Rams secondary. While Jalen Ramsey doesn't really shadow anymore and spends most of his time in slot coverage, we did see him spend more time covering DK Metcalf last week with Tyler Lockett out. In fact, he was on Metcalf for 18 of 29 coverage snaps and while Metcalf finished with six catches for 52 yards that game, most of it came against other defenders. If Adam Thielen returns, then we should have the all-clear and can use Jefferson everywhere. But if Thielen is out, expect to see more of Ramsey in coverage on the second-year star. I know it's tough building lineups with such a high-priced player and then quickly pivoting off of him, so make sure any lineup you build with Jefferson in it, that you build a second with the pivot off him and the money being spent elsewhere.

After missing Week 14, Allen returned and dominated once again with six catches for 78 yards and a touchdown on a team-leading 10 targets against the Chiefs. This week, it's Houston and while the Texans are typically beaten on the ground, Allen is Justin Herbert's security blanket and he will always see a heavy target share. He's got three touchdowns in his last two games, so look for him to try and finish strong here.

Somehow, the Titans managed to keep Johnson in check last week and the Steelers No. 1 receiver saw just five targets. That's not going to happen this week as the Chiefs heavy-blitzing style is going to force Big Ben to get rid of the ball quickly and get it into his play-makers' hands. Johnson has received double-digit targets in all but three games he's played this season and he's got two 100-yard efforts and three touchdowns over his last five games. His target share gives him outstanding value in cash games and the volume also gives him strong GPP upside, especially since this game does have some shootout potential. 

Lockett received clearance from the reserve/COVID list and got back to practice late in the week, just as we thought he would. It's clear that there is still a disconnect between Russell Wilson and DK Metcalf, as Wilson fed him 12 targets and he managed just six catches and zero trips to the end zone. With Lockett returning, Wilson should thrive, especially against this Bears defense that is allowing the 10th-most fantasy points per game to the wide receiver position. I'll still include Metcalf if I'm running a full Seahawks stack in GPP, but Lockett is my man.

The Ravens should get some of their secondary back from the reserve/COVID list, but Marlon Humphrey is still on IR and that should keep things nice and open for Higgins. The Ravens rank 30th in DVOA against the opposition's No. 2 receiver and while Ja'Marr Chase gets the glory, Higgins is the one with three 100-yard efforts and two touchdowns in his last four games. Expect Joe Burrow to continue leaning on him. Chase will still be in-play for GPP tournaments if you're stacking Bengals, but we love the floor for Higgins, especially in cash games.

Gage has been developing quite nicely this season and has one 100-yard effort and two touchdowns over his last four games. He's the No. 1 target for Matt Ryan, works both the inside and the outside and the Lions rank 21st in DVOA against the opponent's No. 1 receiver. We're eyeballing Matt Ryan for this game as well and if he's on, Gage should be a huge asset this week.

With no Chris Godwin or Mike Evans available, Bruce Arians welcomed back Antonio Brown with open arms and made no acknowledgment of any second chance or anything. He was all business and his own personal ethics take a back seat when there is talk of another Super Bowl championship run. We may see a little bit of rust and Brown will spend most of his time dealing with Stephon Gilmore, but he's got amazing speed and killer moves to shake coverage no matter who the match-up comes against. The FanDuel price has me licking my chops, though he's a little pricey on DK and Yahoo. But he'll also be widely popular this week which puts him as a strong cash game option.

He's the forgotten man and understandably so, but with the switch to Drew Lock under center for the Broncos, the deep-passing game just got a nice boost. He is strictly a GPP play, though because the combination of the two has been a horror show in the three games they've appeared in together this season. Still, there is plenty of talent in Sutton and if Lock can take some control of this offense, then maybe we see him take some shots downfield. The last time the Broncos faced the Raiders, Sutton managed eight catches for 94 yards and a touchdown, so if we can get close to that with Lock under center, it's a huge win.

Sorry to all of you who thought you were going to get another opportunity with Gabriel Davis, but he landed on the serve/COVID list late in the week and neither he nor Cole Beasley are going to suit up for the Bills big rematch with the Patriots. The expectation is that Bill Belichick will scheme against Stefon Diggs and Dawson Knox which should leave Sanders in a number of one-on-one situations. Yes, he's been a disappointment over the last several weeks, but that doesn't mean you don't open the door when opportunity knocks, do you? The Patriots coverage numbers look great, but they can't blanket everyone. Let's look to Sanders to recapture some of that early-season magic. If not, I've got a great dart-throw for you, so look for the Dart Board later today.  

If you listened to the Fantasy Alarm Show on Friday, you caught a nice debate between Jon Impemba and I regarding the use of Treadwell in lineups. The summary of it was that we felt he could be useful as a spend-down in cash games because of the volume he receives, but I'm not as big a fan of using him in GPP tournaments as Jon is. I just don't see huge upside on an offense that doesn't score a lot. Still, volume is the key, as is this super-tasty match-up with a horrible Jets defense. Treadwell has dominated the snaps and targets over the past few games and it is obvious now that he's become Trevor Lawrence's favorite target. In this battle of the bottom-feeders, we're getting a really nice bargain play who should pay off this week.

How about a good revenge-game narrative here? I also like Braxton Berrios a lot this week as he takes over in the slot for Jamison Crowder, but with the way the Jaguars ranks against the outside receivers, you have to believer Cole is looking to serve up a big old dish of revenge here. Who would have thought that with Crowder and Elijah Moore out we'd still like two Jets receivers? A mind-scrambler for sure, but there could be some crazy, delicious upside here.

Whether it's Huntley or Jackson under center, it doesn't matter because both feed the MANdrews like he's a starving baby. Target after target, both between the 20s and inside the red zone, he gets a steady diet of targets which has led him to elite production for the season. He's got back-to-back 100-yard games with three touchdowns and he should repeat this week against a Bengals team that ranks 26th in DVOA against the tight end and gives up the eighth-most fantasy points per game to the position. 

With no Evans or Godwin and Brown likely to see the Gilmore shadow, you know Gronk is going to see a heavy workload from Brady this week. The veteran QB always reverts to what he knows and doesn't trust easily, especially players he hasn't been in the trenches with over time. The Panthers have done a great job at guarding against the tight end, but Gronk tends to be one of those guys who transcends the match-ups. Carolina is still allowing an average of just over 11 fantasy points per game to the tight end, so expect production here as the Bucs look to take another step closer to a first-round bye. 

Another stellar match-up here for a top-rated tight end as the Lions rank 22nd in DVOA against the position. Pitts also lines up in the slot a lot so his opportunities get a nice boost, especially in a game the Falcons desperately need to keep their playoff hopes alive. Pitts' production has steadily increased over the past few games and the Lions do allow the 11th-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.

The Giants are allowing the 10th-most fantasy points per game to the tight end position and Goedert is coming off back-to-back 100-yard games with two touchdowns. The reliability of the Eagles wide receivers continues to dwindle which only puts the ball into Goedert's hands more so look for Jalen Hurts to continue to lean on him in this soft match-up.

The Texans rank dead-last in DVOA against the tight end and are allowing almost 57 yards per game to the position. It seems unlikely that Donald Parham (concussion) is going to receiver clearance prior to this week's game so that puts the handful of red zone targets he sees back into the hands of Cook. With the Texans allowing the ninth-most fantasy points per game, he becomes a rock-solid play with a strong floor. Not to mention this price on DK, right? 

While he's not showing much in the way of high-ownership in our Draft Percentage Forecaster right now, Engram is likely to be a very popular pay-down this week given the opponent. The Eagles are allowing the most fantasy points per game to the tight end position and have been routinely burned for touchdowns throughout the season. Engram doesn't excite a lot of people given the number of drops we've witnessed throughout the year, but the opportunity to turn things around is certainly here this week.

Kmet continued to see the work from Justin Fields and it seemed like just a matter of time before it start paying off for DFS owners. Well, now we've got Nick Foles under center and while that chemistry might not be as tight, the match-up is still good. Seattle allows the fifth-most fantasy points per game to the tight end position and rank 20th in DVOA, allowing an average of 55.3 receiving yards per game to them.

Since Scam Newton took over under center, the Panthers have climbed up the leaderboard for giveaways this season and now have the third-most at 24. Meanwhile, the Bucs defense ranks third with 27 takeaways and they have been incredibly opportunistic this season thanks to 37 sacks, 15 interceptions, 10 fumble recoveries and a couple of defensive touchdowns. If you're paying up, this is the one.

The Chiefs defense has been one of the team's brightest spots this season with 25 takeaways, 24 sacks and three defensive touchdowns. Big Ben has struggled recently with three interceptions and one lost fumble over his last four games and Kansas City is ready and waiting for more. They'll likely go with a heavy blitz package, given the struggling Steelers offensive line and that should create some extra opportunities to collect turnovers.

Houston has the fifth-most giveaways this season with 21 while the Chargers rank in the top third of the league with 20 takeaways of their own. Expect the Chargers to be aggressive on defense and once their offense jumps out to a big enough lead that Davis Mills is forced into passing all day, the mistakes will come.

I mean….it's Nick Foles, right? The Bears are down to their third-string quarterback, their offensive line has been average, at best and the Seahawks defense has been surprisingly good this season,. They started out rough, but if you've actually watched the last few games, you'll see a much different unit than the one we targeted against in the early weeks. Once Foles starts making mistakes, the defense should start to capitalize.

I know what I've said – just because a bad defense is facing a bad offense, it doesn't mean that defense is any good. However, if the Lions are going to go with Tim Boyle as their quarterback this week, we'll have no choice but to pay down and use the Falcons. They have a couple of pick-sixes this season and have shown some improvements on the pass rush. But again, this is more about the Lions and their 19 giveaways which should increase with the use of Boyle under center.