NFL DFS Playbook: Week 17

He looked pretty darn good against the Patriots last week, didn't he? And that was a much tougher defense he was facing. The Falcons rank 29th in DVOA against the pass, allow 244 passing yards per game and have coughed up the third-most passing touchdowns (28) on the season thus far. This match-up is too good to pass up on for Allen, especially when the Atlanta run defense is equally piss-poor and Allen poaches so many opportunities, especially near the goal line. The Bills need to keep winning if they're going to best the Patriots for the division and Allen is the guy to take them there. UDPATE: There is snow expected throughout the game. I think Allen is still capable of a solid game and he may even do some more running as faking out the defenders on slick ground  could yield some extra yards.  

Pretty sure I nailed the Brady break-down in the Watch List, but just in case you missed it – Brady versus the Jets is a tale as old as time. He loves beating up on them every chance he gets. He hates them. Always has, always will. Lets not forget, to get under his skin, Bridget Moynahan, whom Brady left when she was just a month pregnant, named her son John Edward Thomas Moynahan just so his initials would spell JET. So this is and always has been personal for him. Brady is averaging 240.3 passing yards per game and has 57 touchdown passes in 36 games against his former division rivals. He hasn't faced them since he left the Patriots but had won eight-straight and ran up the score on them in four of those games. Now it's his Bucs versus a Jets team that ranks dead-last in DVOA overall? Yeesh!

The Ravens secondary has been decimated in recent weeks and they've now allowed an average of 312.7 passing yards per game over the last three weeks, including Joe Burrow's mammoth 525-yard game last week. Even John Harbaugh admitted to not having any faith in his secondary, his reason for going to the two-point conversion for the win in back-to-back weeks. The Ravens have allowed 28 passing touchdowns and opposing quarterbacks have posted a 101.2 passer rating against them. If Stafford can't pick them apart, piece by piece, then there's no hope for the Rams to advance in the playoffs. I believe he can and will.

While Arizona ranks fifth in DVOA against the pass, they've had a rash of injuries and COVID issues that has depleted the secondary. Marco Wilson is out with a shoulder issue, Robert Alford landed on IR with a pectoral injury two weeks ago, Budda Baker is questionable with a rib injury and Breon Borders, as well as outside linebackers Markus Golden and Devon Kennard are out with COVID. There's been all this talk about Zeke and Tony Pollard being healthier, but if you're the Cowboys, do you want to lay it all on a couple of recovering running backs or are you going to let Dak sling the rock against a banged up defense after watching him find his groove last week? McCarthy would be wise to let his quarterback build up some momentum this week and keep his backs healthy for a playoff run.   

While Hurts didn't do any running last week, he still managed to lead the Eagles in a blowout against the Giants and tossed a pair of touchdowns in the process It wasn't a great fantasy day for him, but he's ready to get back after the Washington Football Team, against whom he threw for 296 yards with a touchdown and rushed for 38 yards and two more scores in Week 15. The Washington secondary is incredibly weak and they can be burned through the air, so to protect themselves, they usually bring in an extra defensive back. That just opens up more holes for Hurts to run through. He makes for a strong cash game option this week.

There are two weapons on the Saints offense right now and when the match-up is right, both should be able to shine. We'll get to the other one in a bit, but let's focus on Hill who missed last week because of COVID but has been back at enough practices this week to give the green light here. The Panthers defense was strong during the first half of the season, but they've allowed 23.3 more passing yards per game over the last three weeks than their entire season-long average. It's just under 20 more rushing yards per game allowed on the ground. While Hill isn't a prolific passer, we can probably get 150-175 passing yards with maybe a touchdown and, unless Alvin Kamara has another one of those six-touchdown games a la 2020, perhaps Hill runs one or to in as well    

LATE CHANGE – I've removed Russell Wilson due to the weather concerns in Seattle and don't want you landing on him if you're using the lineup generator. Instead, we are going to bring Lance from the Dart Board to the Playbook for two reasons – No. 1 is his price. If you want Jonathan Taylor or Cooper Kupp in your cash lineup on DK, you need to pay down at QB. No. 2 is that it's difficult to ignore the rookie given his rushing ability and the match-up against a Houston team that guards the pass well and forces turnovers, but really struggles against the run and doesn't fare well against running quarterbacks. My hesitancy is the nonsense game-playing Kyle Shanahan does as he spent all week talking about his Jimmy Garoppolo (thumb) could actually play this week. He finally acquiesced late in the week as the media continued to hound him, but what is the level of faith he has in his rookie quarterback? We'll see today, but with enough of a supporting cast, he should fare well in a relatively soft match-up. 

This is going to be one of the high-priced no-brainers on the slate. We're obviously going to want to use Taylor, but can we afford him? Is there enough value at the lower tiers that fading him is possible. It'll be tough to make the case against him as the Raiders have been pounded by successful running games throughout the season. They escaped an inept Broncos team last week, but Nick Chubb put up 91 yards and a touchdown on them the week before, the Chiefs backfield combined for over 110 rushing yards the week before that and the week before that one, Washington jammed another 100 yards down their throats. Taylor should have no issues this week.

Feel free to go back up two slots an re-read what I've said about the Panthers defense over the last three weeks. Now to get more granular, the Panthers allowed 159 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns to the Bucs last week. The gave up 119 and one to the Bills the week before, 128 and one to Atlanta the week before that and 111 and two to the Dolphins the week before that. Are you telling me Kamara can't eat against this defense right now? Divisional games can be tough sometimes, but these teams are in two very different head-spaces right now and I'll side with the one still trying to keep its playoff hopes alive. UPDATE: Keep an eye on this as I might pull Kamara from the Playbook due to the recent news that both LB Shaq Thompson and DE Brian Burns were just activated from the reserve/COVID list. Stamina could be an issue for them, but if they're back, it could stifle the running game for the Saints.

I'm probably looking at Mixon as more of a GPP play than cash, strictly because the KC -5 spread tells me Vegas is expecting the Chiefs to win this one big and there is a chance that Mixon, despite the usual workload, could get game-flowed out if the Chiefs get out to big lead early. But the Bengals know the best way to stop Patrick Mahomes is to keep him off the field, so it makes sense to try and produce long, sustained, time-consuming drives. Kansas City has allowed 116.5 rushing yards per game this season, but 122 per game over the last three weeks. If the Bengals are successful attacking on the ground early, then you've got some big-play ability, so maybe just leave him for tournament play, unless you really believe in this Cincinnati offense.  

Montgomery continues to see a heavy workload on the ground, but what we're loving even more is the near eight targets per game he's seen over the last four weeks If you're telling me, Montgomery is going to see that kind of volume against a tomato can defense like the Giants, then I am pushing the chips all-in. The Giants rank 27th in DVOA against the run, they are allowing the 11th-most fantasy points per game to the running back position and they're giving up about 45 receiving yards per game to running back pass-plays. This one feels like it could be a strong play. Maybe a little chalky, but strong.    

Even though Williams managed to find his way into the end zone, last week against the Raiders was an absolute horror show. The Broncos can't get out of their own way sometimes and Pat Shurmur needs to go, especially if he doesn't attack the Chargers, who gave up 149 yards and two touchdowns to Rex Burkhead last week, on the ground. He can tandem it with Melvin Gordon, but Williams is still the more explosive player who also contributes plenty to the passing game as well. The shared workload makes it tough to use him in cash, but I'll be getting him into some of my GPP lineups again this week.  

We get a second-straight value week here with Jones – well, at least somewhat on Draft Kings. It looks like FanDuel is going to make us pay the tax on RoJo facing the Jets, but that's ok, because this is still a better match-up than he had last week. He didn't dazzle us with some Herculean 100-yard effort, but he paid off his cheap price with 65 yards and a touchdown along with two catches for 16 yards. Given the fact that the Jets rank dead-last in DVOA against the run and have been allowing an average of 172.7 rushing yards per game over the last three, this feels like a really nice week to go back to him.

Not gonna lie. I'm torn. When Swift was playing, his usage was off the charts. His carries steadily increased and his target share was immense. Is he capable of picking right back up where he left off (back-to-back 100-yard efforts with a touchdown) or does he get eased back in, knowing that Jamaal Williams and Craig Reynolds have proven to be capable assets? This match-up just might be soft enough to give Swift a full look and head coach Dan Campbell is just dumb enough to run the franchise's future into the ground. Seattle is allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to running backs, they're giving up almost 115 rushing yards per game, they've allowed 13 rushing touchdowns and the big one that really puts Swift on the map, is they rank dead-last in DVOA against running back pass-plays. I'm not 100-percent sure he's cash viable, but enough to leave him here for both.

LATE ADD – Apologies for the extra running back here, but I keep coming back to Singletary and wonder if I'm overlooking the Buffalo back, especially as I start to construct lineups and find myself re-examining this pricing tier. But the Falcons rank 25th in DVOA against the run, they give up the eighth-most fantasy points per game to the position and Singletary's usage has increased dramatically over the last three weeks. He saw 22 carries against the Panthers two weeks ago and while his rushing opportunities last week or two weeks ago were light, he had 11 receptions between the two games. If Buffalo gets up big, he should also be the guy who kills the clock in the freezing cold weather too. The salary relief you get here is also a huge bonus.

With no Miles Sanders and Jordan Howard sitting as a game-time decision, we have to look at Scott who could be the lead back this week against a bad Washington defense. If Howard is active, I will limit Scott to just GPP play, but if Howard sits, then Scott should be cash-game viable and a ridiculous bargain on DK. Washington has allowed 156 rushing yards per game over their last three and they've allowed 12 rushing touchdowns this season. Yes, Jalen Hurts loves to poach a lot of the goal-line work, but if the Eagles can get Scott the ball out in space (Washington ranks 22nd in DVOA against running back pass-plays) then he should be able to do some damage and grab a score of his own.

Another high-priced no-brainer for the slate as the Ravens secondary is in shambles and they're giving up a ton of receiving yards and touchdowns. You can read all about the match-up in the Stafford section above if you need further analysis, but similar to Jonathan Taylor, using Kupp is going to be about your budget with your lineup construction. Can we afford to use him or can we find enough wide receiver value to fade him without getting burned? That's the big question here.

LATE ADD – With Travis Kelce back, the Bengals are going to have their hands full in the secondary and if this game turns into a shootout, we could see Mahomes target Hill often. Mike Hilton is a strong slot-corner, but shutting down Hill is going to be tough. You should also look to the Chiefs to move Hill more to the outside with Trae Waynes as a late add to the reserve/COVID list. If Hill gets matched up with Eli Apple, it's going to be a long day for the Bengals.   

While Diggs isn't enjoying the same type of season he had last year, he's been pretty consistent and has six touchdowns in his last seven games. The match-up with Atlanta is definitely to his advantage as they allow 244 yards through the air and have given up 28 passing touchdowns and if you're looking at DVOA numbers, the Falcons rank 29th against the opposition's top wideout and are allowing an average of 72.4 receiving yards per game to them. UPDATE: They're expecting snow throughout the game, so be careful. I might look to Diggs as a GPP play but am losing steam on him in cash right now. 

Between Lamb's versatility to line up all over the field and all the issues in the secondary the Cardinals are dealing with right now, I feel like this is a great spot to get him, especially with somewhat of a discount. Not an outlandish discount but enough to get him into your lineups without worrying about cost. No reason to worry about the recent target reduction as these last two games have been blowouts and the starters were given extra rest. This is going to be a battle with Arizona and the Cowboys want this win bad as they shoot for the bye week and home field advantage throughout the playoffs.     

Talk about a late-season surge….wow. Just wow. Higgins has four 100-yard efforts in his last five games with three touchdowns and has been a huge part of why the Bengals are now sitting atop the AFC North division and can take down the honors for the first time in eight years. This is going to be a heated battle with the Chiefs who are allowing just over 245 passing yards per game and have allowed 23 touchdowns through the air this season. Higgins is a PPR beast right now and the cost isn't too prohibitive.  

While the Titans defense has shown some improvements here in the latter half of the season, they still rank just 17th in DVOA against the opposition's top guy and 25th against the slot receiver which is where Waddle lines up more than 60-percent of the time. Tua Tagovailoa leans heavily on his rookie wideout and is looking to help him push past the record for most receptions by a rookie receiver which is currently held by Anquan Boldin. Expect Waddle to be force-fed targets this week. UPDATE: The weather is supposed to be pretty nasty in Nashville with a lot of rain possibly turning to snow. The short-passing game will work and that favors Waddle, but you still have Tua to contend with.

I'm going right back to the Lockett well this week so long as there's no snowstorm this time around. The Lions rank 27th against the opposition's top receiver and have had issues against the slot as well which is where Lockett takes most of his snaps. While Seattle has already been eliminated from playoff contention, there is a lot of pride on the line for this Seahawks team so expect them to come out firing against the Lions this week. UPDATE: Be careful of the weather in this one. Looks like a lot of rain in Seattle today.

If we didn't know how bad the Washington secondary was, the Dallas Cowboys sure gave us an up-close view last week as Dak Prescott threw for 330 yards and four touchdowns against them. Now I'm not saying the Eagles passing attack is as potent as that of the Cowboys, but they don't need to be. They just need to feed Smith the ball just as they've been doing and let him do the rest. Smith has averaged roughly six targets per game over his last seven and has three touchdowns in that span. 

LATE ADD – With official word that Brown will play against the Jets, it would seem silly to not have him in the Playbook. We also downgraded both Tyler Lockett and Amon-Ra St. Brown to GPP-only status due to the weather there. I'm not going to screw around with them or their weather situation for cash games. Not when there are so many other options available. Brown vs the Jets is probably a no-brainer here and judging by the Draft Percentage Forecaster, he'll be just fine for cash games given the expected ownership.

Full disclosure, I still feel like this may be a bit of a trap. With the return of D'Andre Swift, we may see Tim Boyle check it down more, depending on how Seattle's pass-rush works against the Lions this week. But Boyle and St. Brown shocked a lot of people, myself included, and I don't want to overlook him again this week. The coverage is going to be a little tighter with both Josh Reynolds and Kalif Raymond out with COVID, same for starting tight end Brock Wright, but the volume should be there for him against a secondary that has had its struggles throughout the year. UPDATE: Be careful of the weather in this one. Looks like a lot of rain in Seattle today.

After missing last week's game, Cooks is ready to get back out there and complete the only bright spot of the Texans miserable season. He's 55 receiving yards away from his sixth 1,000-yard season in seven years and is coming off back-to-back 100-yard efforts with two touchdowns. The 49ers rank 28th in DVOA against the opposing No. 1 receiver and are allowing an average of 85.7 receiving yards per game to them. Cooks should definitely be in-play for this week's lineups. 

With the loss of DeAndre Hopkins, the Cardinals have increased Kirk's workload, as evidenced by the 21 targets over the last two weeks, and he's done his best to deliver, turning them into 16 catches for 142 yards and one touchdown. He's actually been used out of the slot a whole lot more too, as Antoine Wesley fits better as an outside receiver. That will keep Kirk away from Trevon Diggs and matched-up more with slot-corner Jourdan Lewis whose performance this season has the Cowboys ranked 15th in DVOA against the slot, allowing just over 80 receiving yards per game to them.

LATE ADD – With Ravens DB Anthony Averett ruled out, the Baltimore secondary gets even worse if you can imagine that. The Rams will likely lead with Sony Michel and pound the rock early, but simply to set up the pass. Using Jefferson as a pay-down in your lineups will still get you a slice of the Rams passing attack while you get Jonathan Taylor into your lineups.

While I expect the Patriots to lean heavily on the ground game in this cakewalk of a match-up, I'm sure Bill Belichick will also use this game as a nice confidence-booster for Mac Jones as well. Bourne has been a favorite target for Jones all year and seems primed for a solid game this week with a return trip to the end zone, his first in what will be four games. The Jaguars rank dead-last in DVOA against the opposition's top wideout and if you think maybe that's more Jakobi Meyers, then look no further than the rankings of 31st against the opposition's No. 2 guy. Any way you slice it, Bourne is going to be a nice pay-down for the week in GPP tournaments. 

This is actually the perfect GPP play as the Broncos were horrible last week and Sutton put up a disappointing 33 yards on five catches. No one is going to use him as no one has any confidence in this team or in Drew Lock as a quarterback. But Sutton and Lock have connected on the deep ball before and this match-up is actually favorable for him. The Chargers rank 31st in DVOA against the opposition's top wideout and they're giving up an average of 69.4 receiving yards per game to them. If he can get into the end zone, this will be a huge pay-off. 

Full practices for Kelce from Wednesday on means we can happily green-light him and not worry too much about his stamina, an issue many players returning from COVID continue to deal with this season. Patrick Mahomes is going to need his guys this week more than ever and Kelce needs to be on top of his game to pay-off. But the Bengals are allowing the sixth-most fantasy points per game to the tight end position this season and if Kelce can find his groove, this could be a huge week for him. 

This is an interesting game for Kittle as he's appeared in just one game with Trey Lance under center and while he saw nine targets that game, he only racked up four catches for 40 yards. But since returning from injury, he's been absolutely amazing and the Texans rank 31st in DVOA against tight ends while allowing the ninth-most fantasy points per game to the position. Kyle Shanahan will likely keep the passing scheme short to give Lance the opportunity to put the ball into his play-makers' hands and let them do the work after the catch. And that just happens to be Kittle's specialty.   

This is going to be a strong play for me this week, both in cash games and GPP tournaments. You can use him as a one-off and a stack with him, Brady and RoJo is looking mighty tasty right now. The Jets rank dead-last in DVOA against the tight end and they allow the seventh-most fantasy points per game to the position. With no Evans or Godwin, Gronk is going to eat and he's going to eat a ton.

Last week against the Giants was a bust, but Goedert still sees a strong number of targets from Jalen Hurts, averaging six per game over his last five. He's turned that into two 100-yard games and two touchdowns, including a seven-catch, 135-yard performance against this same Washington Football team just two weeks ago. Expect another heavy lean on Goedert in this match-up.

Ertz was back at practicing in full during the latter part of the week and that's coming just in time for this big match-up against the Cowboys. He's seen 24 targets over the last two weeks as Kyler Murray has leaned heavily on the short-passing attack recently and with Dallas ranking 15th in DVOA against the position, allowing an average of 57.3 receiving yards per game to them, Ertz should probably be in-play if you're looking at the mid-tier of the position. 

UPDATE Then Colts are flat out BAD against the tight end position this season, allowing the most catches, the most yards, the fifth most touchdowns and third most fantasy points to the position this season. With Darren Waller still out of the lineup for the Raiders we should see Moreau continue to play 90%+ of the team's offensive snaps.

We all know the Eagles are the worst against the tight end and are allowing the most fantasy points per game to them. But while everyone still views Ricky Seals-Jones as the top tight end for Washington, it was Bates who saw more targets last week and a 75-percent share of the snaps. It's a deep GPP dive, but could certainly hit for us if he can get into the end zone. 

While we expect Carson Wentz (COVID) to be under center this week we could still see Sam Ehlinger. Regardless of who is under center, I expect a heavy dose of targets to land with the tight ends and with Doyle finally putting in a full practice Friday, it looks like we can turn to him as the Colts' No. 1 option. The Raiders are allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to the tight end and are 27th in DVOA against the position. The cost is minimal but the pay-off could be big. If he doesn't go, Mo Alie-Cox will definitely be in-play.

The Bucs defense is ranked seventh overall according to DVOA and they get the privilege of starting off 2022 with a match-up against the Jets who lead the league in giveaways with 26 this season. Tampa, meanwhile, has the sixth-most takeaways in the league with 16 interceptions and 10 fumble recoveries. If you can afford to pay up, this should be an incredibly profitable play. 

The Patriots always make for a nice play, especially when you have the mad genius of Bill Belichick scheming against a rookie quarterback who has looked like he is in way over his head this season. The Jaguars are tied with the Jets for the most giveaways this season (26) and the Patriots, of course, have the fifth-highest number of takeaways on the year.  

After missing a substantial number of defensive players to COVID last week, the Saints are close to being 100-percent and get a struggling Panthers team that lacks any sort of identity on the offensive side of the ball. Cam Newton is washed, Sam Darnold is terrible, there's no confidence in the ground game, they've lost five in a row in which they've averaged just 14.4 points per game and they've turned the ball over 25 times this season. I will happily lean on the Saints defense at home.  

The Dolphins have won seven-straight games and have allowed an average of just 11.6 points during that span. The defense has been absolutely on fire with another touchdown last week and it actually could have/should have been two. The Titans have the third-most giveaways this season which is going to be dangerous because, if there's a team that can really capitalize on an opportunity, it's Miami.

It's not like Jimmy Garoppolo has been all that great this season and with Kyle Shanahan spending most of the week holding out hope for Jimmy's thumb, you have to question his confidence in Tray Lance as his starting quarterback. He didn't exactly light it up earlier in the year when he played and now he's got a very underrated defense to face. The Texans just beat the snot out of the Chargers last week, they have the seventh-most takeaways in the league and they rank 15th in DVOA against the pass. If they can focus on containing Lance and keep him from finding running room, they could be a big surprise here in Week 17.