NFL DFS Playbook: Week 8

We like to think of Miami having a good secondary but in reality their defense ranks 26th in DVOA against the Pass this season. Josh Allen has been rolling of late, posting seven total touchdowns over the last two weeks. Buffalo is a two touchdown favorite this week but the one thing we love about Buffalo is that we know where the points are coming from and that is Josh Allen.

In the QB coach for the past few weeks I have written a lot about how great these matchups are for Stafford and fortunately he has delivered. Currently the Rams are 16-point favorites against the Texans so we should see plenty of scoring out of this offense. My lone concern with Stafford is the run game. If these touchdowns are scored by Henderson and not Stafford, even in a Rams blowout, then he won't hit value like we need in GPPs. 

Hurts is averaging the third most fantasy points per game among QB's on the slate this week yet he is the fifth highest priced QB on DK which is where I like the value this week. On FanDuel he is the second highest priced QB and just a few hundred less than Josh Allen. Hurts has failed to complete 60% of his passes in each of the last three weeks but his ability to run and this matchup against the Lions will continue to give him a high ceiling.

The Jets are a welcomed sight for any opposing offense never mind a Bengals offense that we saw light up the Ravens in Week 7. Burrow tossed for over 400 yards against Baltimore last week as he and Ja'Marr Chase continue to torment opposing defenses. The Jets allowed over 50 points to the Patriots last week just to put things into perspective. Now, the Patriots did have four rushing touchdowns last week and Joe Mixon could just as easily have a monster day while Burrow is good not great. I love the upside but he is a GPP only play for me.

I've talked myself into a GPP dart throw with Winston this week. He is very boom or bust in the sense that he has two games of four and five touchdown passes this season and other games where it looks like he doesn't know how to throw a football. The Buccaneers have allowed the second most receptions to opposing RB's which should mean good things for his connection with Alvin Kamara this week and we know the Buccaneers secondary has had its own issues.

I went back and forth between Matt Ryan and Carson Wentz at this price point but the recent activation of Stephon Gilmore for the Panthers has me now leaning in Wentz's direction. Carson has two touchdown passes in each of the last four weeks with zero interceptions. He could be getting T.Y. Hilton back this week and his chemistry with Michael Pittman is really starting to blossom. Was the Titans defensive performance last week a fluke? We will find out. 

The Seahawks  rank 25th in DVOA against the pass this season and with the Jaguars fresh off their first win of the season and a bye I can see this offense having little trouble moving the football this week. Jacksonville's offense has leaned heavily on James Robinson and he has come through but we also saw Marvin Jones have a big game against Miami and Laviska Shenault had 10 targets. The Jaguars offer up the cheapest QB/WR stacks on the entire slate and there could be multi-touchdown upside form Lawrence here. 

The Colts have the top ranked run defense per DVOA but we saw them give up over a 100 yards last week to Eli Mitchell and Henry rushed for 113 yards on Indy back in Week 3. We know the volume is going to be there and I look for him to get back into the end zone this week and maybe more than once.

We generally look to avoid running backs against the Buccaneers but this matchup for Kamara is better than it may initially look. The Buccaneers this season are tied with the Jets for allowing the second most receptions to opposing running backs this season, just one catch less than the Bengals who lead the league in receptions allowed to RB's (more on that later). We also saw Kahlil Herbert run for 100 yards on Tampa last week and even Miles Sanders, when the Eagles finally gave him the football, had some success on the ground. If looking for a pivot off Henry I think there will be almost no ownership here.

Volume Volume Volume. Harris may struggle to run efficiently behind this offensive line but he is going to be fed all the carries he can handle and is a key feature in the offensive passing attack. This one is another contrarian play as the RB's just below him in the pricing tier will draw a lot more eyes but Harris has been a fantasy monster of late.

Titans rank 25th in DVOA against the run and  Jonathan Taylor has found his grove, rushing for 100+  yards in three of the last four games while scoring six total touchdowns during that stretch. The one game he didn't run for 100 yards he went and finished with 116 yards receiving instead thanks to his 76-yard catch and run against the Ravens. The Colts offense is getting healthier and Taylor is looking great. 

The Jets run defense ranks 27th in DVOA against the run and just allowed four rushing touchdowns to the Patriots in Week 7.  They have allowed the most rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs this season. 20+ carries out of Joe Mixon would not at all shock me this week and I am expecting a pretty solid ownership here.

My favorite GPP running back on the slate. The Eagles have allowed the fifth most receptions to opposing running backs on the season and only four receptions off allowing the leagues most. Swift has been a PPR darling and looking healthy even with the injury designation with the groin that has been around all year. Swift hasn't had a ton of carries but that is largely due to the fact that the Lions are rarely in the lead. I think Detroit has a real chance to win this game and can see a big time game from Swift here. 

The Jaguars offense is focused around James Robinson, much to the delight of fantasy players, and this week he has yet another favorable matchup. Over the last four weeks he has five rushing touchdowns and is averaging over 20 fantasy points per game. Jacksonville hasn't utilized him a ton in the passing attack but Seattle is yet another defense that struggles to defend the RB out of the backfield and that was on full display last week by Alvin Kamara. Robinson is a strong mid-tier play this week.

The Chargers defense ranks dead last in DVOA against the run and Harris has back-to-back 100-yard rushing games while having scored four touchdowns over the last three weeks. IF Rhamondre Stevenson is again inactive this week we should expect plenty of carries coming to Harris with the goal line work being his.

I think you can play both running backs in this matchup whether it be Herbert or Mitchell but I think the 49ers win this game and therefore I look for Mitchell to be the more successful running back. Good value for this slate. 

I talked about Carter on the Fantasy Alarm Show and on Alarm After Hours this week because he is starting to take over as the lead back. He has double-digit carries in four straight and 10+ fantasy points in four of the last five games that he played. The Bengals LEAD the league in receptions allowed to opposing running backs and carter had nine targets last week against the Patriots. The Jets are double-digit underdogs this week and I can see Carter getting plenty of check downs by Jets QB Mike White.

Kupp is very expensive this week and if he doesn't do what he has been doing then he isn't going to pay off the price tag. That said, there is little to think he and Stafford don't just light up the Texans defense this week so another 10 for 130 and two touchdowns seems very much in reach.

Diggs scored just his second touchdown of the season in Week 6 against the Titans, finishing with nine catches for 89 yards. His first touchdown of the season came in this same matchup against the Dolphins back in Week 2. Diggs is not having the same success that he had last year but the target share continues to lead the team and we are looking at Buffalo as two touchdown favorites this weekend.

Chase has been as advertised this season and more this season as he and Burrow show their college connection is still intact. I'm expecting Chase to be the highest rostered receiver on the slate given this matchup against the Jets.

I'm a big fan of Deebo this week given the matchup and the 49ers offense. With George Kittle out and Brandon Aiyuk non-existent we continue to see a massive target share go Samuels direct. In the hurricane that was last  weeks matchup against the Colts we saw Samuel finish with seven catches on 11 targets for 100-yards and a touchdown. We just watched Chris Godwin light up the Bears last week as well. I see Samuel having similar success in the 49ers offense this week, especially with the Bears allowing the most receiving touchdowns in football this season.

Brown is looking healthy and looking good as he enters this Week 8 matchup against the Colts. In their first matchup he finished with zero catches and left with an injury. He has since returned and over the last two weeks he has 15 catches on 18 targets for 224 yards and one touchdown. Brown is a great price this week. 

Volume Volume Volume…..sound familiar? The Steelers offense is very concentrated and that is a good thing for DFS. We know that Johnson is going to get 10+ targets this week against Cleveland and be a great source of fantasy production in PPR leagues. 

Fantastic price tag for Godwin this week as he comes off one of his best games of the season. Mike Evans is going to have his hands full with Marshon Lattimore this week and with Antonio Brown also out of the lineup there should be a pretty heavy target share heading Godwin's way. 

Jones went into the bye after his best performance of the season which saw him catch seven passes on 10 targets for 100 yards and a touchdown. He is the top receiver in this Jaguars offense and is a ridiculous price in this matchup against an exploitable Seahawks team. The only thing keeping me from considering him a cash game play is the rookie QB and the logo on his helmet. 

If you don't want to spend up for Diggs then the other two receivers in Buffalo are fine options as well. I think Sanders fits in both GPP and Cash game lineups as he continues to see a solid target share as the second option in this offense. He is also going to avoid the Xavien Howard defensive matchup that Diggs will see and therefore could be Allen's top target this week.

Starting to break out, Pittman had four catches for 105 yards and a touchdown last week against the 49ers. He has touchdowns in two of the last three weeks and this matchup against the Titans will present another strong oppurtunity to find the end zone once again. He and Carson Wentz are getting on the same page and we saw in this matchup earlier in the season Pittman was targeted 12 times.

The target share has been fantastic and Burrow even looks to him often in the red zone. We are expecting the Bengals to score plenty of points this week against the Jets and maybe, finally, this is the week that Higgins has himself a breakout game.

I mentioned the Bills other receivers and after being a non-factor for most of the year we finally saw Beasley breakout against the Titans. The injury to Dawson Knox could have directly contributed to the increased snap share as Beasley was on the field for over 80% of the offensive plays. Great value here if he can keep it going.

In adding Jameis Winston to the playbook it only makes sense to add in Callaway who has been his top receiving option behind Alvin Kamara this season. It was just two weeks ago that Callaway had a two touchdown game and we should expect a handful of shots down field today.

Jerry Jeudy was held out of practice on Friday due to soreness and the team hasn't activated him off the IR yet. If he sits then we get another week of Tim Patrick seeing a solid snap share in what is one of the leagues better matchups for opposing receivers. Courtland Sutton is also a good play but the price on him, compared to the other receivers makes Patrick a bit more appealing.

I talked about him on the podcast and then on Alarm After Hours I mentioned him in the DFS Fantasy Swamp segment. We then got this tweet from Jaguars offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell confirming that Agnew is the team's starting slot receiver. At under $4,000 on DK he is a very nice punt play.

Put the panic buttons away, Pitts has exploded over the past two weeks and is the top priced TE on the Week 8 slate. With the likelihood that Stephon Gilmore is going to be all over Calvin Ridley this week we may seen an even greater target share head Pitts way.

No longer on the injury report, Hockenson has looked better in recent weeks and now faces an Eagles defense that is tied for allowing the most receptions and is tied for allowing the most touchdowns to the tight end position this season.

Washington has allowed the sixth most receptions to the tight end position this season and if Jerry Jeudy is not activated we know the target share will continue to look Fant's way.  I like Fant in cash games this week.

I suspect that Goedert will be the chalk play this week. He is a nice mid-tier price and the matchup against the Lions will be appealing to many. In his first game back from Covid and without Zach Ertz we saw Goedert finish with three catches on five targets for 70 yards.

Who doesn't love a revenge game narrative? Henry has caught a touchdown pass in four straight games and there is a chance that Jonnu Smith is not active due to a shoulder injury. Either way, Henry is the team's leader in targets at the tight end position and Mac Jones loves to look his way in the red zone.

With Eric Ebron ruled out all the tight end snaps are going to run Freiermuth's way. Before the bye we saw him catch seven passes on seven targets. The absence of JuJu Smith-Schuster is also a plus for the value of Freiermuth this week even if it is a tough matchup against Cleveland.

You know my boy Dan Arnold is making the playbook this week. He sees a high snap share in this Jaguars offense and is used as a receiver and not a blocker. In the two games which he has started since the trade he has eight catches on 13 targets for 91 yards.

It's the Rams and it's the Texans. Davis Mills is nothing special and we are not expecting many points to be scored by Houston this week. Add in the likelihood for sacks and turnovers and it makes sense that the Rams are the top priced defense.

It's the Jets…Sorry Howard. 

Justin Fields threw three interceptions last week and the Bears offense continues to struggle to put up points. The 49ers defense may not be what it once was but this game as a total of 39.5 so Vegas is not expecting many points to be scored. 

Buffalo won 35-0 against Miami earlier this season and that was IN Miami. This week Buffalo is 14-point favorites and still sitting with the top ranked defense in football. 

If you want to punt defense this week the Washington Football team has actually been serviceable this season. Against the Packers and against the Chiefs we have seen this defense put up seven and eight fantasy points which isn't going to kill you at what is essentially min-price. The Washington front is still getting after the QB, notching three sacks in each of those two games and they have even forced six turnovers over the last three games.