Top Tier
Max Scherzer, LAD - It’s Scherzer. Since going to LA, he’s made five starts and has given up six total earned runs while averaging 7.2 strikeouts per start. The Dodgers and Padres are coming off a 16-inning game last night which should make for some wonky lineups and a push for Scherzer to last a little longer to save the pen a bit. As a bonus, San Diego has a .282 team wOBA and 77 wRC+ versus righties the last two weeks.
Chris Sale, BOS - Sale has been pretty close to his old self in his couple of starts since his return. Boston is still looking for every great start they can get as they make a push for the playoffs in the final month plus of the season and against Minnesota, Sale should be more than capable of providing a great start. The Twins’ offense has been dormant against southpaws the last few weeks with a .269 team wOBA and 68 wRC+ along with striking out a quarter of the time. That’s a recipe for success for Sale.
Mid-Tier
Alex Wood, SF - The last two starts for Wood have seen him allow just two earned runs each time, which were far better than the past few before that. Let’s also consider that the Mets have been struggling badly against lefties the last two weeks to a month with below a .250 team wOBA the last few weeks and a very subpar wRC+. Should be a good day for Wood at a reasonable price.
Elieser Hernandez, MIA - The Nationals are coming off facing Edward Cabrera in his first start and didn’t do anything for the first six innings of the game. Hernandez has made four starts and has allowed two or fewer runs in three of them and the Nats have struggled to put up runs consistently. Given that Miami is a tough hitter’s park and Washington can’t hit well, Hernandez is a reasonable mid-tier option.
Patrick Corbin, WAS - Corbin hasn’t been stellar or even good for that matter this year. However, in this particular match-up he’s got a shot to perform pretty well. Miami has struggled with southpaws on the mound all season in terms of strikeouts and the last few weeks they’ve been swinging and missing 30-percent of the time. Also in previous match-ups, Corbin has done well against the Marlins as well with a 3.46 ERA in 13 innings and nearly a K per inning.
Value Tier
Brad Keller, KC - Keller hasn’t been great this year for sure, but he does get a Seattle team that’s been struggling versus righties recently. They’ve struck out 26.4-percent of the time against them and rank middle of the pack in runs the last couple of weeks. Keller has also been better at home at Kauffman in terms of K:BB ratio and BAA and looked quite good over six innings last start.