MLB DFS Value Vault July 23: Max Meyer To Sink The Pirate Ship
Tonight’s main slate begins at 7:05pm EST and MLB DFS lineups aren’t always won on the backs of superstar players and high-priced options. You’ll need value options to round out your lineups, and when looking at the main slate on FanDuel, DraftKings, and Yahoo DFS, I’ve uncovered some hidden gems on the slate. Without spoiling everything in the article, I keep coming back to Tampa Bay left-handed hitters and believe it or not, the Oakland Athletics are a sneaky MLB DFS stack for your GPPs if you’re feeling dangerous. Mother nature might get involved this evening, so make sure to keep up with our MLB weather center leading up to lineup lock and first pitch. Lastly, we have a ton of MLB DFS content to help your DFS lineups, including the MLB DFS playbook, daily projections, and Vegas Odds. Without further ado, let’s take a look at my favorite value plays and MLB DFS top picks for Saturday, July 23.
MLB DFS Pitchers
Max Meyer (FanDuel - $8100 / DraftKings - $6100 / Yahoo - $30) - The Pirates are tied with the Braves for the second-highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season, and overall in the month of July, versus lefties and righties, the Pirates have the fourth-highest strikeout rate. The Pirates have the fifth-lowest batting average in the month of July, and in his MLB debut, he registered five strikeouts against Philadelphia. He should fare better against a weaker Pittsburgh lineup, and the outlook on Meyer’s debut would likely be drastically different heading into this start if Richard Bleier wouldn’t have allowed all of his inherited runners to score, taking onto Meyer’s earned run tab for the afternoon.
Julio UrÃas (FanDuel - $9200) - Urias is priced up a bit on DraftKings and Yahoo, but he actually comes in at a decent value on FanDuel, where he isn’t one of the top two or three highest priced pitchers on the slate. He has a 3.40 ERA in eight home starts this season, and in two starts against the Giants this year, he’s allowed just two earned runs on seven hits with a 14:0 K/BB ratio. Outside of his blowup against the Cubs on July 10th, he’s allowed three or fewer earned runs in every start dating back to his first start in the month of June.
MLB DFS Hitters
Josh Donaldson (FanDuel - $2600 / Yahoo - $14) - Jordan Lyles does pitch better at home, so that’s something I’m considering here, but Donaldson is 7-for-13 in his career against Lyles, and the New York third baseman has been far better away from Yankee Stadium this compared to within it. On the year road this year, he’s hitting .281 with an .861 OPS and 143 wRC+. Lyles is better at home, but he’s allowed a ton of hard contact lately, and that can be dangerous against a potent Yankee lineup.
Brandon Lowe (FanDuel - $2900) - You beat Brady Singer with lefty bats, and Lowe has been solid against righties for the most part, posting a .406 slugging percentage and 123 wRC+ against them in 2022. As for Singer, he’s allowed a .271 average and .365 wOBA to left-handed hitters this year. What further attracts me to Lowe on FanDuel today is the generous price point given his recent production. He has multiple hits in three straight games and in his three games since returning to the lineup, he’s 8-for-14 with two doubles and four runs scored.
Sean Murphy (FanDuel - $2500 / DraftKings - $4000) - Murphy may be 0-for-4 in his career against Taylor Hearn (likely bulk guy today), but for this price point on FanDuel and DraftKings, his .798 OPS, .220 ISO, and 131 wRC+ against all lefties trumps a couple of at-bats against this particular Texas southpaw. Murphy is hitting .333 with a 158 wRC+ and .913 OPS in the month of July, whereas Taylor Hearn has allowed a 6.41 ERA over his last six appearances, and in all of 2022, he has an 8.61 ERA on the road. Lastly, righties have a .296 batting average and .858 OPS against Hearn in 2022.
Leody Taveras (FanDuel - $2900 / DraftKings - $2900) - If you get funky with an Oakland stack, Taveras is the player to bring back on the other side. He’s been better against lefties, but he’s still hitting .294 with an .814 OPS and 129 wRC+ against righties. Taveras is hitting .370 in the month of July with two home runs, four stolen bases, 12 runs scored and 14 RBI. In six starts at home this season, James Kaprielian has a 5.40 ERA alongside a 2.22 HR/9 and 1.45 WHIP.
Maikel Franco (FanDuel - $2100 / DraftKings - $2200 / Yahoo - $7) - Franco is super cheap, but he has good BvP numbers (6-for-15, HR) against Madison Bumgarner in his career. The veteran southpaw has a 4.76 ERA in the month of July and Franco is hitting .294 with a .471 slugging percentage over his last five contests. Franco’s upside is capped for sure, but if you need a punt play at a position that offers extreme salary relief across the board, you could do worse than Franco’s BvP numbers.
Nick Pratto (FanDuel - $2000 / DraftKings - $2000 / Yahoo - $12) - The Royals need to leave Pratto’s bat in the lineup, and it will likely be at first base. He’s hit safely in three of five games this season, and he has multiple hits in each game that he’s hit safely in. He doubled twice last night and homered in the game before the break. Pratto is 4-for-15 with two XBH (1 HR) against righties this year and if he cracks the lineup tonight, he offers nice upside against Luis Patiño at an incredibly affordable price point on all three sites.
Josh Lowe (DraftKings - $2700 / Yahoo - $11) - Our projections love Lowe today, and likely for good reason. In July, he’s hitting .271 with seven doubles, one home run, eight runs scored and six RBI against right-handed pitchers. As mentioned above with his teammate Brandon Lowe, lefties have given Brady Singer some fits this season, and Lowe is rocking a modest five-game hit streak where he’s hitting an even .300 with a 151 wRC+. His price point on DraftKings and Yahoo is far too low.
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Caleb Durbin went 2-for-4 with a walkoff homer as the Brewers edged the Padres 4-3 on Saturday.
The Padres decided against using Robert Suarez in a tie game in the ninth, and Durbin immediately walked it off with a homer off David Morgan, who was making his fifth big-league appearance. It was Durbin’s second career homer. He’s batting .302 with seven doubles and eight RBI in his last 14 games.
Jose Quintana surrendered one run over five innings Saturday against the Padres.
Quintana won his first four starts for the Brewers, but he’s had no luck since, even though he’s struggled just once in giving up six runs to the Cubs. He’s allowed four earned runs over 15 1/3 innings in his last three starts, all of which turned into no-decisions. He’ll make his next start Thursday against the Cardinals.
Trevor Megill gave up two runs to take a blown save in the ninth Saturday against the Padres.
The Brewers scored in the bottom of the ninth afterwards, giving Megill a victory, so this won’t do too much harm to his standing. Working with a two-run lead, Megill gave up a single and a walk before Luis Arraez dropped a game-tying double down the left-field line. He then got Manny Machado out to keep it tied. It’s his second blown save in 14 chances.
Stephen Kolek shut out the Brewers for 5 2/3 innings in a no-decision Saturday.
Kolek walked four tonight, but all three hits he allowed were soft singles. While he did give up seven hard-hit balls, none turned into hits and two actually became double plays. Kolek now has a 3.00 ERA through seven big-league starts. Still, between the 17% strikeout rate and the 49% hard-hit rate, we’re not big fans, even if he does get plenty of groundballs. He’ll pitch in Arizona next.
Trevor Story went 3-for-5 with a double and five RBI as the Red Sox beat the Yankees 10-7 on Saturday.
It’s his seventh career five-RBI game. All three knocks left the bat at over 103 mph, which is nice. But Story’s issue hasn’t been exit velocity nearly so much as a lack of contact and an unusual amount of his contact coming on the ground. Maybe the worst of his slump is over, but we’re still not sure a big turnaround is on the way.
Garrett Crochet yielded five runs in six innings and struck out nine in a win over the Yankees on Saturday.
Crochet gave up three runs in the second, two of which came on an Austin Wells homer that would have left only three ballparks. The other two came in the fourth. Crochet faced the minimum after that, with the only batter reaching against him doing so on catcher interference. That runner was erased on a double play. Crochet is expected face the Yankees again next time out, probably on on Friday.