MLB DFS Value Vault June 25: Can Riley Greene Collect His First Home Run Tonight?
While there are games all day, for our purposes we are focused on the six-game MLB DFS main slate beginning at 7:00pm on the East coast. It gives us a manageable 12 teams to work with but it also ensures that we won’t be overwhelmed with options. As we work through our research for tonight’s slate, it is important to stay on top of the latest MLB News, MLB Lineups, and MLB Weather Report. Now, let’s dig into some MLB DFS value options that can help you fit in some high-priced studs to put your lineup over the top. Let’s be bold tonight, I might be biased, but I see four home runs in our future tonight; one from each of the hitters highlighted below.
DFS VALUE PITCHERS
Mitch White (LAD); DraftKings - $6,100; FanDuel - $5,800; Yahoo - $25
While I would want a better opponent than Atlanta for White to face tonight, it’s also hard to be too picky at this price point. It has been a few weeks since we last saw White at the Major League level but Andrew Heaney’s injury led to a promotion. In nine games so far this season (four starts), White has a 3.86 ERA while striking out more than a batter per inning and walking less than three. At this price, the strikeout upside alone should put White squarely on our radar and he also was impressive in his last start against the White Sox. White threw five shutout innings while striking out five and generating eight ground balls and a repeat performance would play perfectly here tonight.
Logan Webb (SF); DraftKings – $7,800
I’m not sure what is going on at DK as Webb is considerably cheaper compared to his cost on FD and Yahoo. Webb is coming off a one-run, seven-inning outing while striking out seven. While he isn’t a true strikeout artist, Webb has picked up 74 in 82 innings so far this season but the main takeaway is the 3.07 ERA and 1.10 WHIP he has recorded to this point. With a 3.45 xERA, the underlying metrics on Webb are also right where they should be and with a 56.7% ground ball rate he does a good job of limiting damage. Facing the Reds at home tonight is also beneficial.
Zach Eflin (PHI); DraftKings - $7,400; FanDuel - $8,000; Yahoo - $31
It’s a solid matchup for Eflin tonight against San Diego at home although he is coming off a rough start against Washington in which he allowed four runs in just two innings of work. Eflin has a manageable 4.43 ERA on the season but a 3.01 xERA provides some potential room for upside as the right-hander is walking under two batters per nine innings. With an average exit velocity of just 85.1 miles per hour and a hard hit rate of 32% along with a 6.2% barrel-rate, Eflin has been able to minimize the quality of contact against him.
DFS VALUE HITTERS
Matt Olson, 1B (ATL); DraftKings - $4,000; FanDuel - $3,500; Yahoo - $18
I know that I touted White above as a value option, but I simply couldn’t bypass Atlanta’s cleanup hitter at this price with the platoon advantage in play. Eight of Olson’s ten home runs this season have come against right-handed pitching and he has a .264 average against them compared to a .228 mark against southpaws. Olson has three multi-hit games in his last six and with a 12.1% barrel-rate and 50.2% hard-hit rate, the process is working for him so far this season even if the results haven’t been as strong as we would like them to be.
Alex Kirilloff, 1B/OF (MIN); DraftKings – $3,200; FanDuel - $2,400; Yahoo - $9
If at first you don’t succeed, try again. I was on Kirilloff earlier this week in the Value Vault and he came through with two hits and two RBI so I would consider that a success even if it was a home run we were hunting. Kirilloff has gone hitless in each of his last two games and he is still looking for his first home run of the season, and facing Antonio Senzatela at home tonight with the wind blowing out gives me optimism that we will see it tonight.
Evan Longoria, 3B; DraftKings - $2,800; FanDuel - $2,300; Yahoo - $16
This is a situation where you can just take your pick. Stacking right-handed bats on the Giants tonight against Mike Minor is going to be a popular strategy, but if you are going to pick one player to highlight, I would lean towards Longoria. Longoria has hits in five straight games and his price has actually dropped by $200 on DK after going deep last night. In 36 games so far this season, Longoria has six home runs and 13 RBI and his success shouldn’t come as a surprise based on his 13.9% barrel-rate and 17.7-degree launch-angle.
Riley Greene, OF (DET); DraftKings - $2,000; FanDuel - $2,600; Yahoo - $16
I don’t want to jinx anything here, but seeing Greene’s price still this low is a little confusing to me. All the top prospect has done since his promotion is pick up hits in five of his six games and bat .350 with five runs scored. Batting second for Detroit has agreed with Greene and while he has had success this season, I’m not concerned about him facing Zach Davies. Greene is still looking for both his first RBI and home run, and both should be here shortly. In fact, let’s just be bold and say it comes tonight.
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Carlos Narváez went 2-for-4 and clubbed a three-run homer on Sunday night, propelling the Red Sox to an 11-7 victory over the Yankees.
The 26-year-old backstop crushed a 372-foot (101.0 mph EV) three-run shot off of Carlos Rodón in the sixth inning that turned a 3-2 deficit into a 5-3 advantage for the Red Sox. Narváez also drew a walk and singled in the ballgame. On the season, he has slashed a respectable .282/.361/.459 with six homers and 22 RBI in his first 191 plate appearances.
Kristian Campbell launched a two-run homer on Sunday night, helping to lead the Red Sox past the Yankees in New York.
The 22-year-old rookie infielder tagged Yankees’ starter Carlos Rodón for a 349-foot (99.0 mph EV) two-run shot in the fifth inning that tied the game at two runs apiece. It was just his second home run since April 29 and first since May 13. Campbell also drew a walk and singled in the ballgame, finishing the night 2-for-3. On the season, he’s now slashing .233/.323/.364 with five long balls, 20 RBI and two stolen bases in 234 plate appearances.
Rafael Devers went 1-for-4 with a solo homer and a pair of runs scored on Sunday night as the Red Sox bested the Yankees in New York.
Devers did his damage in the ninth inning, crushing a leadoff 393-foot (111.2 mph EV) solo shot off of Brent Headrick that extended the Red Sox’ advantage to 10-5. He was also hit by a pitch in the sixth inning and rode home on a three-run shot by Carlos Narvaez. The 28-year-old slugger is now slashing a healthy .283/.407/.522 with 14 homers and 57 RBI on the season.
Aroldis Chapman picked up his easiest save of the season on Sunday, recording the final out against the Yankees to protect a four-run advantage.
That out came after Robert Stock had given up a couple of runs at put another couple of runners on with two outs, putting the tying run in the on-deck circle. That’s when Red Sox’ skipper Alex Cora turned to Chapman to end the threat. The 37-year-old southpaw needed just three pitches to strike out Anthony Volpe to end it. On the season, he sports a brilliant 1.71 ERA to go with a 35/9 K/BB ratio over 26 1/3 innings and 11 saves in his first 12 chances.
Hunter Dobbins picked up his third victory of the season on Sunday evening, limiting the Yankees to three runs on four hits over his five innings of work.
The 25-year-old right-hander surprisingly did not walk or strike out a batter in the ballgame. He served up a mammoth two-run homer to Aaron Judge before he had even recorded an out in the contest, but settled in nicely afterwards and allowed just a solo shot to DJ LeMahieu in the fifth the rest of the way. Dobbins got four whiffs on 64 pitches on the night, posting a CSW of 28 percent. Now 3-1 on the season, he’ll tote a 4.20 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and a 37/10 K/BB ratio (49 1/3 innings) into a rematch against the Yankees on Saturday evening at Fenway Park.
Aaron Judge went 3-for-4 and clobbered his 22nd and 23rd home runs of the season on Sunday night, but it wasn’t enough to power the Yankees past the Red Sox.
Judge absolutely demolished a first-pitch fastball from Hunter Dobbins for a 436-foot (108.6 mph EV) opposite-field two-run shot that gave the Yankees an early 2-0 advantage. He also drew a one-out walk in the sixth inning and scored on a sacrifice fly off the bat of Jazz Chisholm Jr. Jude also pulverized a 1-2 fastball from Robert Stock for a 398-foot (108.9 mph EV) two-run shot in the ninth inning. The 33-year-old outfielder is having a season for the ages, slashing an utterly ridiculous .396/.493/.771 with 23 homers, 55 RBI and five stolen bases through his first 64 games.