NFL DFS Playbook: Week 14

This is the absolute perfect time to attack DFS with Allen as your quarterback this week. The masses will take what they saw last Monday and hold onto it way too tight which will hopefully give us a little lower ownership than what it should be. The Bills have spent this past week getting angrier and angrier with every question about how they got shoved around by the Patriots and they will look to take that anger out on Tampa Bay's banged-up secondary. From a stats standpoint, he Bucs are allowing almost 250 passing yards per game and have given up 21 touchdowns through the air. That's great. But what I love even more is the game script, no matter what it may be, favors Allen and the Bills passing attack. The Bills don't have a strong rushing attack so they're going to have to pass. If the Bucs run heavy and take an early lead, Allen is going to have to pass. And if the game turns into a shootout, as evidenced by the 54 over/under with just a 3.5-point spread, guess what…? Allen is going to have to pass. This feels like a week where paying up at QB is the path to take and Allen is probably my favorite. 

Throughout much of the season, we've been targeting against the Raiders on the ground, but given the strength of the Chiefs passing attack and the gradual deterioration of the Raiders pass defense, Mahomes is a fantastic option. We already saw this on display last month when Mahomes threw for over 400 yards and five touchdowns against Las Vegas as the Chiefs went on to win 41-14 and while I don't expect such a dramatic blow-out again, I do like this Kansas City offense in this match-up. The Raiders rank 23rd in DVOA against the pass, they've allowed the third-most passing touchdowns (22) this season and opposing QBs are posting a 97.6 passer rating against them which is the sixth-highest in the league. This is going to be a tough, divisional match-up, but Mahomes will come away from this one strong.

The Dallas ground game has taken a beating in recent weeks as Ezekiel Elliott's knee is far from being 10-percent and we just got word of Tony Pollard's plantar fasciitis which got worse with a tear of the plantar fascia in his left foot. That puts the onus much more on Dak's shoulders in this battle for the NFC East. The Washington secondary has been a disaster all season, rankings 30th in DVOA against the pass and allowing the most passing touchdowns (26), the third-most passing yards per game (263.9) and the second-highest passer rating against (105.0). As important as this game might be for Washington, it's actually a bigger one for Dallas who needs to prove they are not just a paper lion and can actually win the big games they need to win. Just be wary of the fact that Prescott is not a running quarterback anymore, so don't expect rushing yards or any real poaching near the goal-line. 

I've been a big fan of Herbert and the Chargers all year and the hope here is that I am a man alone on an island with word that Keenan Allen is officially out and Mike Williams is questionable due to COVID. I expect Williams to be cleared shortly (maybe even while you're reading this) as he was only deemed a close-contact and continues to test negative. While losing Allen is a bummer, it doesn't sink this offense at all. Herbert still has plenty of targets between Williams, Ekeler, his multiple tight ends and the array of tertiary receivers, all of whom are more than capable of catching the ball. The Giants are allowing just over 242 passing yards per game with 20 passing touchdowns on the year. Herbert should have a strong enough floor in this match-up to be a solid cash-game option.

In the simplest terms, you don't go against Brady when he's slinging the rock at home. Yes, we've seen teams successfully dispatch of the Bills via the ground and we will certainly see plenty of Leonard Fournette this week, but Brady at home has been other-worldly. In five home games this season, Brady has averaged 316.8 passing yards per game with a 20:3 TD:INT, a 65.1-percent completion rate and a 113.8 passer rating. Given the shootout expectations, no Tre'Davious White in the Buffalo secondary and the 54 implied game total, we're happy to lock Brady into our lineups this week.

Believe it or not, this game has the second-highest implied game total on the slate at 49. With Joe Mixon banged up and the potential for a high-scoring, competitive game, I expect the Bengals to do more leaning on Burrow and the passing game this week. The 49ers rank 17th in DVOA against the pass (third against the run), opposing quarterbacks have posted a solid 96.5 passer rating against them and Burrow is in need of a strong performance if the Bengals are going to maintain their hold on a playoff spot this season. Reports have been very positive regarding his pinkie which was mangled last week and it sounds like he should have Tee Higgins who was dealing with an ankle issue. With or without Higgins, though, Burrow should be able to provide a high enough floor for you to use him as a potential pay-down in cash games.

Hill deserves a long look here against the Jets, even with the mallet finger issue he is dealing with right now. As Dan Malin mentions in this week's Waiver article, you're not using Hill for his throwing prowess anyway. You'll take him poaching touchdowns all over the place and given the Jets D, which ranks 30th and 32nd in DVOA against the run and pass, respectively, it seems like everyone on the Saints should be able to eat at the big kid's table and get themselves ready for a strong finish down the stretch. I'm not 100-percent sure I can trust him in cash games just yet, but we definitely have a GPP stack ready and waiting with Alvin Kamara as both should be able to eat against this super-soft Jets defense.

We're going to see a lot of three-and-outs for the Giants this week, so look for the Chargers to attack on the ground and keep the clock moving in this one. New York has allowed 122.8 rushing yards per game this season and while they've only allowed nine rushing touchdowns on the year, that just seems like a stat waiting to correct itself as they've allowed two rushing touchdowns over their last three games and neither came from a team that runs the ball very well. The loss of Keenan Allen could leave some additional check-downs for Ekeler which is always nice and I'm hoping people are down on him for his fumbles last week which will keep the ownership down.

Not only has Kamara put in the practice time this week, but it looks like he's going to be shouldering nearly all of the load himself this week as Mark Ingram and Ty Montgomery are still on the reserve/COVID list with very little hope of being activated before the game starts. Not that we're concerned as it's going to be the Kamara-Hill show on the ground for New Orleans this week. The Jets have allowed the most rushing touchdowns this season (21) and give up the third-most rushing yards per game (133.4). His price on FanDuel is a bit high, but to get him for under $8K on Draft Kings is nice. 

Despite how amazing Tom Brady's passing numbers are at home this season, I fully expect Fournette to be one of the chalkier picks this week after what we witnessed with Buffalo on Monday night in Week 13. In fact, just a quick glance at the Saturday morning update to the NFL DFS Forecaster, we see him projected as the highest-owned player this week in large-field GPP tournaments. That means he could be 40-50-percent owned in cash games this week. And rightfully so as the Bills have been gashed up the middle by teams who run the ball well. I'm sure the Bucs will open with a heavy run scheme and once Buffalo makes the adjustments they failed to make against New England, Brady will start to carve up the secondary. And don't sweat them softening on the run at all as Fournette has very much been a part of the passing attack as evidenced the nearly eight targets per game he's seen over the last four weeks.

LATE ADD – We are awaiting news regarding Tony Pollard's status. If Pollard is out, then Zeke becomes cash viable for the potential added workload and definitely use inside the red zone and short-yardage situations. I don't think he has the upside for GPP use, but he could prove to be a contrarian play. Just not sure he's worth it based on cost. Cash, sure. GPP, it's going to be a no from me, dawg.

In the four games since the Week 9 bye, Washington has, thankfully, turned into much more of a run-first offense with Gibson leading the way. He's averaged almost 24 carries and 90 rushing yards per game with two touchdowns and with J.D. McKissic still in concussion protocol, Gibson has also added 12 catches for 58 yards and a touchdown over his last two. Given the firepower of the Dallas passing attack, we expect Washington to stay run-heavy and slow the pace of this game down tremendously. Long, methodical drives will keep Prescott & Co. off the field which is what Gibson owners want to see. You'll have to keep tabs on McKissic's status as him being active will cut into the passing work for Gibson which takes away his GPP upside. He'll still be cash viable given his price tag, so don't be afraid to use him even if McKissic returns.

Despite the fact that Barkley didn't turn it on for us last week in my GPP dreams, I feel compelled to come back to him against a Chargers team that ranks dead-last in DVOA against the run, allows 141. rushing yards per game and has given up 17 rushing touchdowns on the year. And keep in mind, Barkley wasn't bad last week at all. He rushed 11 times for 55 yards and caught six passes for 19 yards, giving him 13.4 fantasy points in a full-point PPR format. Again, not what we were ideally looking for, but not awful. This match-up looks a million times better than last week's did and with Mike Glennon under center, we'll see plenty of check-down opportunities once again. I'm leaning more GPP than cash viable here again, so be mindful of that.  

This could prove to be a very interesting play this week as most will likely look to the 41-14 drubbing the Raiders took at the hands of the Chiefs in Week 10 where Jacobs wasn't a factor and ignore him. That would be fantastic. Of course, there is always that possibility of it happening again, but even so, this would be different. With Kenyan Drake out and no other backs available, Jacobs caught nine passes and produced a 24-point day in full-point PPR formats. With Drake still out and Jalen Richard landing on the reserve/COVID list, Jacobs could be in-line for full-time duties out of the backfield again. We know the Chiefs can struggle to stop the run, but now, even if they jump out to a lead, Jacobs will still be on the field. If the Raiders secondary can hold this time, Jacobs becomes a spectacular play.

By now you should have listened to the NFL DFS Podcast with me and Jon Impemba and heard the Hasty versus Jeffery Wilson debate. If not, you should definitely click back and listen as there's a ton of great information there for you. But Jon is on the Wilson side of things and I just can't get behind his reasoning. Yes, Wilson was given the opportunity to be the lead back when Elijah Mitchell was dealing with his finger issue while Trey Sermon backed him up and Hasty was inactive. But Wilson and his bum knee failed miserably. He didn't look good on the field and had little to no burst at all. I get that Hasty hasn't had a significant role at all this season, but given the options in front of him and his affectation for Hasty, I believe Kyle Shanahan is going to give him more than just a shot to dominate this week. He's faster, catches better and should have no issues thriving in a system he worked well in last season. You can also look to the fact that should the Bengals jump out to a lead (remember, this line opened at CIN -1), Hasty will be on the field as the 49ers look to pass their way into a more competitive game. And one final note – Shanahan hasn't said much about Hasty at all. All we've really heard from him is that he thought Wilson had a good week of practice. While Wilson might get the starting nod, Hasty will be the one to dominate the touches. UPDATE: With news that Deebo Samuel will be active for Sunday's game, I am shifting Hasty to GPP only while adding Jeffery Wilson to the Playbook for cash game. The expectation is that Samuel will continue his work out of the backfield, Wilson will remain the lead back (especially in short-yardage situations) and Hasty will fill the role that Trey Sermon did in the Jacksonville game prior to landing on IR. In that game, Sermon saw 10 carries and one reception. Can Hasty do more than Sermon with that workload? Probably, but we cannot bank on it for cash when Wilson's salary is just as low.

LATE ADD – So with the news that Deebo Samuel is returning today, we are making an adjustment with he San Francisco backfield. The assumption here is that we will se a similar split of backfield duties like we saw in the Jacksonville game. Samuel will have his usual fare of jet sweeps and other gadget plays while Wilson will shoulder the bulk of the carries and handle the short-yardage work. JaMycal Hasty will likely fill a similar role to what Trey Sermon did in that game where he had 10 carries and one reception as a change-of-pace back. Hasty has some GPP allure, but Wilson should be viable for cash games now, especialy at his price – $4,00 on DK, $4,900 on FD and $14 on Yahoo Fantasy.

When these teams met in Week 10, Hill posted seven catches for 83 yards and two touchdowns on 10 targets. Are the Raiders ready for him? I'm not so sure. As mentioned above, the Raiders rank 23rd in DVOA against the pass and have allowed the third-most touchdowns (22) through the air this season. Hill is second in the NFL in targets, second in receptions, sixth in receiving yards, fourth in receiving touchdowns and third in fantasy points among wide receivers. If the Chiefs come out firing, Hill is going to give Las Vegas slot-corner Nate Hobbs some serious issues throughout the game.

Washington's secondary has them ranked 30th in DVOA against the pass and the 26 passing touchdowns they've allowed is the most in the league. Their coverage numbers are incredibly weak, no matter if you're looking at the outside or the slot and with Lamb lining up everywhere, this could be an explosive play. Big fan of Michael Gallup here as well, so be on the lookout for some potential Dallas stacks.

It's no secret that Tampa's secondary, especially with Jamel Dean now joining the wounded list, is their Achilles heel and after this past Monday night, you know Josh Allen is going to want to sling the rock. The Bucs simply don't have anyone who can hang with Diggs in coverage and Allen is going to try and hit him all day long as the Bills try to out-produce Tom Brady and the Bucs offense. I fell pretty good about locking in Diggs in both cash games and GPP tournaments.

If you read the DFS Watch List, you saw I had Tyler Lockett in there over Metcalf, but I'm wavering back and forth. The DVOA numbers put Lockett slightly ahead as the Texans rank 27th in DVOA against the opposition's No. 2 receiver and are allowing nearly 60 receiving yards to the slot where Lockett plays a bunch. But Metcalf, to me is the better wideout and the stronger physical specimen. There's a reason he has five red zone looks to just two for Lockett over the past four games and it's because Metcalf does a much better job in traffic. I don't know if I would use either in a cash game right now given how evenly these guys match up, but as I said on the podcast, I am going to build a Seattle GPP stack with the two of them and Russell Wilson

I've really been enjoying this war between Washington and Dallas fans, especially with regard to the Terry McLaurin/Trevon Diggs match-up. It's definitely going to be a heated battle, but I'm not 100-percent sure I feel comfortable using McLaurin in cash just given how the Dallas secondary has performed. For a GPP, it's a different story as I am eyeballing a Dallas stack and McLaurin is probably the likely piece coming back given his explosive upside. He had that super-tasty game against the Panthers in Week 11, but that was bookended by two down games on each side. SO which McLaurin are we going to get – 100-plus yards and a score or 45 on four catches? Well, that's the nature of a GPP, isn't it? Boom or bust. We'll see which way it goes, but I have a feeling we're on the boom side of things this week.    

A recent report from NFL Insider Ian Rapoport says Williams in on-track to play this week and that couldn't make me smile any wider than I am right now. Williams has continued to test negative for COVID-19 and has shown no symptoms whatsoever after being deemed a close-contact to Keenan Allen who has already been ruled out for the game against the Giants. With no Allen, it would appear that we could get one of those double-digit target days we saw from Herbert and Williams early on in the season and those were absolutely explosive. Herbert normally relies heavily on Allen, but with no security blanket, the passes are going to go where the offensive scheme dictates and that means the X-receiver. James Bradberry is going to have a very difficult time defending Williams all day..

We aren't going to expect some ginormous number of receiving yards, given Cam Newton's limitations, but he's locked onto Moore as his No. 1 target, as evidenced by the team-leading 24 targets over the last three games. Moore actually cleared the 100-yard mark last week and has one touchdown in three games with Newton as his QB, so going up against the Falcons who rank 24th in DVOA against the opposition's top receiver gives some promise to another trip to the end zone.

If you've listened to me and Craig Mish on the Pickswise High Stakes Livestream, you know our thoughts on this Denver game. The quick sum-up is, based on this spread which opened at DEN -8.5, the Broncos should destroy the Lions. That's what the line is telling us and the fact that even more money has come in on Denver and pushed the line to DEN -10, should help you understand the direction of the game. While I expect the Broncos to attack with the run often, you cannot ignore the fact that the Lions rank 28th against the pass, allow almost 250 passing yards per game, have given up 20 touchdowns through the air and allow opposing quarterbacks to post a 99.9 passer rating against them. Bridgewater will be throwing the ball and Jeudy is his No. 1 target, as evidenced by the nearly 28-percent target share. His price tag is also going to be extremely favorable for lineup construction, especially if you're going to be paying up in other places.  

Obviously there's not  a whole lot to like about the Jets, outside of Elijah Moore maybe, but Crowder is definitely in a good spot this week going up against P.J. Williams of the Saints, arguably the worst cover-corner in the game. While Crowder only saw one target two weeks ago against the Texans, he's usually been good for six or seven per game and found himself in the end zone against Miami in Week 11. Everyone knows you can't run on the Saints and this RB corps for the Jets is pretty pathetic so you can expect them to be in a more pass-heavy frame of mind. Keep an eye out on Moore as well, because if he ends up sitting for this one, Crowder's targets share could spike even more.

Without Marlon Humphrey in the secondary anymore, the Ravens are going to have some difficulty keeping top wideouts down again. Tavon Austin will be tasked with holding down the slot-coverage, but he just doesn't have the chops to shut down Landry and neither do either of the outside corners. The Browns have had two weeks to prepare for this match-up and while yes, we'll see that heavy dose of Nick Chubb, Baker Mayfield is going to be throwing some as well. Landry should be plenty productive and a super-cool bargain at this price.

Believe it or not, Gage is actually the Falcons top receiver over the past few weeks and should continue as such moving forward. Sorry Calvin Ridley fans, but he's not coming back. The Panthers rank dead-last in DVOA against the opposition's No. 1 receiver, but also rank 30th against slot receivers which is where Gage does most of his lining up. He's often been boom or bust, but with a nine-target average, one 100-yard effort and one touchdown over the last three games, he should be on your radar for this week.

The natural inclination is to go with Ja'Marr Chase or Tee Higgins, but with Higgins banged up and based on the DVOA coverage numbers we're seeing, slot-coverage seems to be a problem for the 49ers as they rank 26th in DVOA against the position and are allowing almost 60 yards per game to them. Given his spot in the targets pecking order, it might be tough to use him as a one-off in a cash game, but he could easily be the pay-down you need if going with a Bengals stack. UPDATE: I still think you can sneak Boyd into some cash games for salary-saving purposes, but I am growing much more bullish on Tee Higgins and Ja'Marr Chase, given the injury news we are hearing about San Francisco's secondary.

LATE ADD – With news that Higgins is going to play and that the San Francisco secondary is now dealing with some new injuries, we're going to add Higgins to the mix. I like Ja'Marr Chase as well, particularly as part of a Bengals GPP stack, but Higgins, who is coming off back-to-back 100-yard efforts, is likely going to see significant action in this one. Keep an eye on him for sure.

People can crap on some of the down games Kelce has had this season, but for us, it's all about the match-ups right here and right now. The Raiders allow the second-most fantasy points per game to the tight end position and rank 30th against them in DVOA. There's really not a whole lot of analysis to be done here. It's time to go back to Kelce, bottom line.

With the possibility of Deebo Samuel missing another game, Kittle jumps off the page as a pay-up for the tight end position. The Bengals rank 24th in DVOA against tight ends, allow more than 12 fantasy points per game to them and give up just over 52 receiving yards per game. If Samuel is out, Kittle should land the lion's share of targets even over Brandon Aiyuk, which routinely makes him a dynamic start in all formats.

The Bills are a middle-of-the-pack team when it comes to DVOA against the tight end and they are allowing the third-fewest fantasy points per game to the position. But this is Gronk we're talking about, a guy who grew up in the shadows of Rich Stadium and rooted for the Bills his entire life. In 15 career games against Buffalo, Gronk has 69 catches for 1,070 yards and 12 touchdowns. Sure, the games on the road in Buffalo have been more productive than the road ones, but Brady to Gronk has produced four touchdowns in three home games they've played together this season. They may never catch Peyton to Harrison at 114, but with 90 touchdowns together, you can bet the two of them will sure try.

The Buccaneers rank 20th in DVOA against the tight end and are allowing the 10th-most fantasy points per game to them. With Devin White attempting to cover Knox, you can bet we'll see a nice resurgence from Allen and his tight end. Lat week against the Patriots was dismal for the pair, but they connected on two scores against the Saints in Week 12 and their chemistry this season has been nothing short of spectacular. If you're lingering in the middle-tier, then he could be a very interesting option.

With no injury designation headed into this week, RSJ immediately pops onto our radar as the No. 1 tight end in Washington. Dallas ranks 18th in DVOA against the position, they allow an average of 62.2 receiving yards per game to them as well as an average of 12.5 fantasy points per week as well. Washington gives their lead tight end the bulk of the snaps and there's usually a strong share of the targets as well. If you're paying down at the position, he doesn't need to do much to pay off this price.

This is my sneaky pay-down for the tight end position this week as the Browns are still hurting in the passing game. Both Harrison Bryant and David Njoku are out for this week, leaving Hooper as the No. 1 tight end, Jarvis Landry has a bum wheel and the only other receiver worth anything is Donovan Peoples-Jones but he doesn't see consistent targets. The Ravens are allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per game to the position and rank 16th in DVOA against them. Hooper doesn't need to do much to pay off this salary and you could end up with a GPP winner if he gets into the end zone.

You guessed it, we just keep on pounding against the Jets. Nothing wrong with it, as that's what makes us money. The Jets are dead-last in DVOA against the tight end and they're giving up the seventh-most fantasy points per game to the position. If Vannett can rack up like 30 yards with a score, he becomes a very worthwhile pay-down at the position.

The Jets have the dubious honor of having the highest number of giveaways this season with 25 lost turnovers. They have no ground game of which to speak, nor do you even want to try running on the Saints, so that leaves their aerial attack as the big play here. Well, considering Zach Wilson's 11 interceptions to just six touchdowns thrown, this pay-up at defense seems like the biggest no-brainer on the slate.

This is going to be a very under-the-radar play this week as, surprisingly, few people are eyeballing the Cowboys defense despite the fact that Randy Gregory and Demarcus Lawrence are both healthy and ready to go. On top of that, the Cowboys have the fourth-highest number of takeaways (23) this season while Washington has coughed up the football 17 times this season. If I'm paying up on DK, I'll likely just use the Saints, but if we're on FD, this might be a fantastic option given the cost.

Again, the point spread is telling us the Broncos are going to dominate in this game and there is very little faith in the Lions putting up a lot of points. The turnover battle seems fairly even between the two teams, so you're using Denver because you believe the Lions may not even score 10 points in this one. The Broncos have an emotional factor here as well with the recent passing of Demaryius Thomas while the Lions are likely emotionally spent after pulling out their first win of the season last week.

With Davis Mills back under center for the Texans, you have to expect some additional growing pains for the rookie who already has eight interceptions to just seven touchdowns over eight games played this season. The Seahawks secondary got beaten up earlier in the season, but, overall, the defense has improved over time and has allowed the third-fewest points this season. That probably has to do with how they are slowing games down this season, but if it's working, they're going to stay with it.

This is likely to be one of the chalkiest defenses used this week, though I'm really wondering why it's also one of the cheapest on Yahoo this week. The Chargers are sixth in sacks while the Giants are last in pass blocking with one of the absolute worst offensive lines. Maybe it's because they know how much I hate the Chargers as more than a 3.5-point home favorite and they're trying to gift a defense to me or maybe it's because they agree with me and are trying to sucker people in. Either way, the Chargers should be a solid play if they can just figure out how to stop the run.

LATE ADD – Full disclosure, I need a punt defense for Draft Kings and while I like Seattle as a GPP play today against the Texans, I cannot ignore the fact that Lovie Smith has this unit with the fifth-most takeaways in the league right now. We've definitely seen steps forward taken by Russell Wilson, but with inexperienced runners and maybe a shot to the arm for Houston players with the release of LB Zach Cunningham, perhaps they step up enough to give us some positive points at this price.