MLB DFS Value Vault July 2: Can Vinnie Pasquantino Go Deep Again?
Saturdays are often a tricky MLB DFS day based on the fact that there are games beginning at various times and there are a plethora of different slates. For our purposes here, the MLB DFS main slate we are covering is the nine games that begin at 4pm on the East coast. The forecast isn’t ideal across the country today so that means it is even more critical to stay plugged into the latest MLB Weather, MLB News, and MLB Lineups leading up to first pitch. Early indications are to be extremely cautious with the games in Washington, Philadelphia, and New York with the storms traveling up the east coast. With that bit of housekeeping out of the way, let’s dig into some MLB DFS value options for this afternoon.
DFS Value Pitchers
Aaron Ashby (MIL); DraftKings - $7,500; FanDuel - $6,800; Yahoo - $38
Ashby makes his return tonight and his last three starts prior to being placed on the Injured List with forearm woes left a sour taste as he allowed 14 runs in 15 innings. The thought process here is that Ashby wasn’t pitching at 100% effectiveness during that stretch and his 4.26 ERA illustrates how good he was prior to that. In eight starts so far this season, Ashby has struck out about 11 batters per nine innings to go along with his 3.03 xERA. In 149 batted balls this season, opposing hitters have just six barrels against Ashby and that makes him a pitcher to target today against Pittsburgh.
George Kirby (SEA); DraftKings - $7,800; FanDuel - $8,500; Yahoo - $40
No pitcher on today’s slate has as much upside, especially from a strikeout perspective at the price point, as Kirby. The right-hander also has one of, if not the best, matchup against Oakland this afternoon. Prior to Kirby’s last start which just should be forgotten about as he allowed four home runs to the Orioles, the rookie made it through six innings in four of his prior five starts allowing just four runs in total. With two home runs allowed per nine innings, that is a clear problem for Kirby, but facing Oakland should minimize that damage. It also works in his favor that he walks just 1.19 batters per nine innings while striking out 8.32.
DFS Value Hitters
Kolten Wong, 2B (MIL); DraftKings - $3,000; FanDuel - $2,900; Yahoo - $22
The Brewers are going to be an attractive option today against Pittsburgh and Bryse Wilson with the betting markets expecting Milwaukee to eclipse the five-run mark. Wong is a key bat, in the middle of the order, for the Brewers who also has the platoon advantage. Over the last ten games, Wong is hitting .278 with a .378 on-base percentage, with eight runs scored, two home runs, and six RBI. Wong’s splits are even more startling as he is hitting .272 against right-handers with all five of his home runs and 18 of his 19 RBI for the season compared to just .109 against southpaws.
LaMonte Wade, OF (SF); DraftKings - $3,900; FanDuel - $2,400; Yahoo - $10
Back from the Injured List, we can’t talk about splits and success against right-handed pitching without putting Wade squarely on the radar. The outfielder has just 33 at bats under his belt so far this season, so instead, let’s revert back to last year when Wade hit .268 while enjoying the platoon advantage. In 299 at bats, Wade went deep 18 times while driving in 54 runs. If we follow that pace, probably not a good idea but it works from a DFS value perspective, Wade would be a top option if given 600 at bats against strictly right-handers.
Vinnie Pasquantino, 1B (KC); DraftKings - $2,500; FanDuel - $2,200; Yahoo - $9
After two hitless games to begin his Major League career, although he did walk twice on Wednesday, Pasquantino got on the board last night as he went deep for his first hit. I would expect to see Pasquantino back in the middle of the order today for Kansas City in which should be a favorable matchup against Detroit and Beau Brieske. We saw what the young first baseman can do at the minor league level and getting on the board last night should help his confidence.
Willi Castro, OF/3B/SS (DET); DraftKings - $2,000; FanDuel - $2,300; Yahoo - $7
Castro has been a solid contributor for Detroit as of late and has found himself in the middle of the batting order. He is hitting .262 overall on the season with 19 runs scored and 14 RBI in 52 games and while there might not be a tremendous amount of upside, the Tigers should have a strong day offensively and Castro figures to be a part of that and getting him at minimum price provides a fair amount of roster flexibility elsewhere.
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Player News
Reds placed RHP Hunter Greene on the 15-day IL with a strained groin.
Greene was removed from his start on Tuesday night after feeling a strain in his groin. This will now be the second time he’s landed on the injured list with the same injury, so we should expect the Reds to be a little more cautious with their ace this time around. There’s not yet a set timeline for Greene‘s absence, but it would not be a surprise if we didn’t see him back on the mound for the Reds until July.
Jordan Westburg (hamstring) will Play for Triple-A Norfolk on Wednesday and then “regroup” with the team to discuss “next steps.”
It sounds like Westburg could potentially return on Friday for this weekend’s series against the Athletics or on Tuesday against the Tigers. Regardless, his return seems imminent and he will likely take over the starting third base job from Ramon Urias. However, the Orioles could always decide to mess with Coby Mayo‘s playing time again and put Westburg at DH and Urias at third, so this will be a situation to monitor.
MassLive’s Sean McAdam reports that the Red Sox are “willing to discuss” potential trades for Jarren Duran.
McAdam also makes it clear that the Red Sox are not shopping Duran around and are “not eager” to deal their former All-Star. However, multiple teams have reached out, and Boston is open to seeing if there’s a fit. Duran is 28 years old and under team control through the 2028 season, but he is highly unlikely to receive a contract extension from the Red Sox given his age and the young talent behind him. The Red Sox may feel the future construction of their team doesn’t include Duran and so moving him for an impact starting pitcher, first baseman, or MLB-ready prospects could make some sense.
Alex Bregman (quad) said his recovery from injury is going “at warp speed.”
Bregman still didn’t give a timeline for his return, but he said the process has been “10 times better” than he hoped. The only timeline anybody has had for Bregman’s return has been using his recovery from a similar injury in 2021, so there’s really no good sense of just how long he might be sidelined. The injury itself didn’t look significant on the field, but Red Sox manager Alex Cora called it a significant strain in the days afterwards. Hopefully another few days will give us a better sense of when Bregman will be back but the Red Sox and fantasy managers need him, so it’s nice to hear his recovery is going well.
George Kirby told reporters he’s fine after being hit in the face by a line drive during Tuesday’s start against the Orioles.
It sounds like Kirby, who had a noticeable bruise on the right side of his upper lip while speaking to reporters, managed to avoid serious injury when he was struck by a 102.7-mph line drive during the fifth inning of Tuesday’s outing. He added that the ball deflected off his right hand before hitting him in the face, managing to avoid any major damage. The 27-year-old righty appears on track to make his next start on Sunday against the Angels.
Pablo López will undergo an MRI after exiting Tuesday’s start against the Athletics with right shoulder tightness.
It sounds like a virtual lock that López will require a trip to the injured list after suffering a potential lat strain while warming up for the sixth inning of Tuesday’s outing in Sacramento. The 29-year-old righty will undergo further testing and imaging on Wednesday to determine the severity of the strain and how much time he’s going to miss. Fantasy managers should prepare for a multi-week absence, even if it’s on the milder end of the spectrum. There should be an update on his status at some point this week. David Festa and Simeon Woods Richardson are the most likely candidates to fill his rotation spot.